Ask the Experts
Posted Sep. 05 at 09:19 PM
ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly, with answers to a new question being posted every Thursday morning.
How the guest experts responded when we asked them:
Which 2006 fantasy star will be 2007's biggest disappointment?
STEVEN LASSAN
I think you could really look at two players for this honor - Maurice Jones-Drew and Marques Colston - and I'm going to focus on Jones-Drew. While I like what Jones-Drew brings to the field and his versatility, I do not think he will be able to match the type of numbers they posted last season in 2007. Jones-Drew was a touchdown machine last year, but I think he'll have trouble getting 13 on the ground this year and I don't see him notching 1,000 yards. There's a good possibility his receptions will go up, but touchdowns are the fantasy gold and he'll probably come back to Earth in that category.
Lassan is a senior staff writer for Pro Fantasy Sports. For more info, visit the websites www.profantasysports.com and www.fswa.org.
SCOTT ENDSLEY
Larry Johnson is probably going to have a significant drop-off and it's really not his fault. Coming off 2 huge years in Kansas City, LJ can't help but be the victim of an inept offense. Nobody likes to use the pre-season as a gauge. But Kansas City scored 2 offensive touchdowns in 4 games. With a former backup QB now the No. 1 and the O-Line with more questions than answers, look for LJ to carry the ball often, just not carry it across the goal line.
Endsley is co-owner and a senior fantasy football consultant for FantasyDraftEdge.com. For more info, go to www.fantasydraftedge.com.
CORY J. BONINI
Kansas City Chiefs running back Larry Johnson is the biggest name that could flounder to a degree in 2007. It's hard to say that he will be a "bust," but considering where you have to draft him, anything short of 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns will be a disappointment. Another option would be Pittsburgh Steelers running back Willie Parker. Coming off a 1,494-yard, 13-touchdown season, in terms of rushing production, Parker is likely to disappoint a few owners with numbers that are closer to earth. A lot of this has to do with the new offense installed in Pittsburgh, one that emphasizes the pass more than in recent seasons.
KFFL offers football as well as baseball content and has captured over a dozen expert league championships. Founded in 1996, this company offers daily news, preseason draft guides, player rankings, sleepers, busts, weekly newsletters and more. KFFL also provides fantasy content to various organizations including SportsTicker and Yahoo! Sports. For more information, visit http://www.kffl.com/ .
PATRICK GLEESING
I have concerns about a variety of breakout stars. None of last year's will be surprises anymore and defenses will scheme against them. Both Willie Parker and Maurice Jones-Drew could see a fall-off. They became the scoring focus of their teams which means defenses will now try to game plan to shut them down and force their offenses to score a different way. Jerricho Cotchery concerns me because the Jets are looking to be terrible this year and will not repeat the 10-win success of last year. Marques Colston is the answer. Without Joe Horn, and with Devery Henderson already having hamstring problems which can linger throughout the year in New Orleans; just ask Stallworth, Colston will get more attention and has also proven to be an injury risk.
Gleesing is the owner and senior writer for fantasyfootballdrafthub.com. He can be reached at patrick@fantasyfootballdrafthub.com. For more info, visit his website at www.fantasyfootballdrafthub.com.
SCOTT PIANOWSKI
Two players I've avoided all summer are Torry Holt and Larry Johnson. With Holt it's not a complicated theme - he's slowly recovering from knee surgery and there's talk he might not get to 100 percent for the balance of the season. On Johnson, it's more complicated, a function of his recent workload, the faltering Kansas City line, and a passing game that will be hard pressed to loosen up defenses. Anytime you see a running back approach 400 carries (Johnson had an NFL-record 416 last year), it makes for a risky follow-up investment. Somehow Eric Dickerson was able to cheat some heavy workloads back in the 1980s, but most of the other runners who have passed through this corridor ran into problems the next season.
Pianowski is a free-lance journalist who's been writing about sports (fantasy and otherwise) for a variety of websites, newspapers and magazines for the last 20 years. He can be reached at pianowski31@yahoo.com.
CARL WEATHERFORD
1,700 total yards and 16 touchdowns are going to be hard for Willie Parker to repeat. In 2006 the offense was centered on him and his success. Under a new coaching staff Ben Roethlisberger and the passing game will demand more attention. Parker should sustain enough production to start in most leagues but it is highly unlikely he’ll match the numbers he posted in 2006.
Weatherford is owner/editor of www.coachbox.com, a fantasy football news and advice community online since 1997. Weatherford was author of the directory and technical editor for IDG Book’s Fantasy Sports Online For Dummies. He has been participating in magazine and expert panels since 1997 and has played fantasy football for over 20 years.
DEAN RAMSAY
I believe Deuce McAllister's stats will drop quite a bit this season as the Saints try to use more and more of Reggie Bush. If Reggie Bush becomes dominant early on McAllister's role may reduced to short yardage situations. I expect a couple hundreds yards less rushing and 3 less TDs this year for McAllister compared to last year. Still not bad overall, but he makes a better 3rd RB or flex position as a part-time runner in deep leagues. Seen him go a bit too early in some league drafts. He should be a late 4th or early 5th round pick in most league formats.
Ramsay is the senior analyst for draftchamps.com. Draft Champs has been providing custom cheat sheets and value-based draft guides to the fantasy football community since 2003. For more info, visit www.draftchamps.com.
JEFFREY KAMYS
The guy that comes to mind first is Frank Gore; the loss of RB guru Norv Turner is one huge indicator. Additionally, Gore was always one of those guys in college that could never stay healthy; already he has been dinged much of the preseason.
Kamys is president of Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports. His company, via the web, offers player news, injury reports, cheat sheets, projections, weekly matchups, statistics, and a customized team tracker. Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports also e-mails preseason newsletters and reports throughout the season. For more info visit www.docstats.com or send e-mail to webmaster@docstats.com.
ANDY RICHARDSON
Where he's going in most drafts I guess I'm not alone in this one: Jon Kitna. I don't see any way he lasts 16 games in the lineup this year -- with all his turnovers, I don't know how he did last year. The Lions have a bad line and an unthreatening group at running back. If Kitna hasn't been hurt or benched by week 7, I'll be very surprised.
Richardson has been a columnist and contributor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and web site for the past six years. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections, as well as various site features. He has run the magazine's annual draft and auction leagues since their inception. Other writing credits have included FFToday.com and football coverage for newspapers in Colorado and Florida. For more information go to www.fantasyindex.com.
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Posted by Randall Weiss | Sep. 05 at 10:18 PM
Joseph Addai - Teams will quickly realize that the Colts have no run stopping defense. This will serve to shorten the games which will keep the Indy offense off the field. There will be no time for Indy to establish a running game of their own. Furthermore, the entire Indy offense will suffer because opposing teams will concentrate their defense against the pass.
Posted by John Evans | Sep. 05 at 11:15 PM
Marques Colston is not drop-off this season. Saying that Joe Horn isn't there to take away the pressure, and comparing Colston to Stallworth in his sophomore year is ridiculous! Stallworth never was and never will be as good as Colston. Joe Horn was playing most of the time with the Saints last season, and Henderson is a better compliment. Over the offseason Colston has refined his body, adding another 5-10 pounds of muscle and cutting some of his body fat. He has been INCREDIBLE in training camp, as his route running and hands look even better than last season (if that is possible). The ONLY thing that will limit Colston's production this season is that the Saints offseason may be TOO dynamic. The Saints go 6 deep at the WR position, and everyone of them are capable of being at the very least slot receivers on 90% of the teams in the NFL. And there is no doubt that Eric Johnson and Bush will also catch some passes this season. But with all that said, Colston is Brees's go-to-guy. He is the guy he looks to on third down and near the redzone. Anything less than 1200 yards and 8 TDs from Colston will be a shocker for me.