Ian Allan
I’m not sure if it’s just a coincidence, but scoring last year was down for passing and up for rushing.
Offenses scored only 58 percent of their touchdowns on pass plays last year, the lowest percentage since 1985. The previous four years (as you can see in the chart below), more of the scores were coming by passes – 64, 60, 60 and 65 percent the last four years.
I’m not sure whether to read anything into this or not. A factor in this could just be the bumper crop of solid rookie runners who entered the league last season – Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Jonathan Stewart and Steve Slaton all played big roles. Or it could be a reflection of problems at quarterback; the Patriots lost Tom Brady in week 1, and there was a lot of iffy play at that position throughout the year.
The NFL changed the forceout rule last year, requiring receivers to get two feet down for completions – no exceptions. But I don’t think that played a role in the decline. It surprises me, but I don’t recall seeing any plays where defensive backs attempted to stop touchdowns by pushing receivers out of bounds before the two feet got down.
PERCENTAGE OF TOUCHDOWNS SCORED ON PASSES, 1978-2008
Percentage of touchdowns coming via the pass (and these are league-wide numbers), since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978. Shown for each year are the average number of TD passes and TD runs that each team finished with.
Pct TDP TDR Year
51% 16.7 16.2 1978
52% 19.2 17.4 1979
58% 21.6 15.4 1980
57% 21.1 15.8 1981
58% 20.3 14.7 1982*
59% 22.3 15.6 1983
60% 22.0 14.6 1984
57% 21.4 15.8 1985
59% 20.9 14.3 1986
63% 23.3 13.8 1987*
60% 20.8 13.9 1988
60% 20.8 13.9 1989
60% 20.5 13.5 1990
59% 18.3 12.8 1991
61% 18.4 11.9 1992
63% 18.5 10.9 1993
63% 20.8 12.1 1994
63% 22.1 12.8 1995
63% 20.9 12.1 1996
62% 20.6 12.8 1997
63% 21.9 12.6 1998
65% 21.5 11.7 1999
61% 20.5 13.3 2000
64% 20.5 11.8 2001
60% 21.7 14.4 2002
60% 20.4 13.3 2003
64% 22.9 13.0 2004
60% 20.1 13.5 2005
60% 20.3 13.3 2006
65% 22.5 12.1 2007
58% 20.2 14.9 2008
*--adjusted to 16 games to account for strike-shortened season.
—Ian Allan
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