Ian Allan
A few days back, I listed the strength of schedule for each team for the 2009 season and made the comment that the numbers would be more reliable and meaningful if they were adjusted to account for some of the change we’ll see with those teams.
The Dolphins went 11-5 last year, for example, but that’s not an 11-5 team -- it’s more of an 8-8 type club. The Titans went a league-best 13-3 last year, but after they lose Albert Haynesworth and some other players, they’ll probably drop to something more like 10-6.
A reader, Adam Holtz, wrote in to say along the lines of, “Sounds great, so why don’t you run those numbers then?”
So I did.
Below, see my customized strength of schedule info for the upcoming season. I projected a win total for each team, assuming it played an average-type schedule, then plugged those numbers back into the schedules that each team will play. And based ont hose numbers, you’ll see the Packers, Seahawks, Vikings, Bears and Steelers play the easiest schedules. The Bucs and Dolphins projects to play the hardest schedules, followed by the Panthers and Falcons.
CUSTOMIZED STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE FOR 2009
Using forecasted win totals for each team.
W L Pct.
114 142 .445 Green Bay
115 141 .449 Seattle
116 140 .453 Minnesota
117 139 .457 Arizona
117 139 .457 Chicago
117 139 .457 Pittsburgh
118 138 .461 San Francisco
119 137 .465 St. Louis
124 132 .484 Cleveland
125 131 .488 Houston
125 131 .488 Indianapolis
126 130 .492 Baltimore
126 130 .492 Detroit
127 129 .496 Cincinnati
127 129 .496 Jacksonville
127 129 .496 San Diego
129 127 .504 Washington
130 126 .508 Tennessee
131 125 .512 Oakland
132 124 .516 Kansas City
132 124 .516 New Orleans
133 123 .520 Dallas
133 123 .520 New England
133 123 .520 NY Giants
134 122 .523 Denver
135 121 .527 Buffalo
135 121 .527 NY Jets
135 121 .527 Philadelphia
136 120 .531 Atlanta
140 116 .547 Carolina
144 112 .563 Miami
144 112 .563 Tampa Bay
Below are the projected win totals I used in this project. Granted, these are early guesses. They’ll change significantly based on offseason signings, trades, draft picks and arrests. But right now, this is the way the teams appear to be headed. It is far fairer, I think I would agree, to call the Lions a 2-14 team rather than an 0-16 (I probably should have moved them up to 3-13).
If you see a team that you feel has a wildly inaccurate projection, let me know. The two I feel a little nervous about are the two Missouri teams, which are both projected at 4-12. That’s awfully low. It might be fairer to move each up to 5-11, but I wanted to make sure the final wins and losses added up to 256 (for all teams).
PROJECTED WIN-LOSS TOTALS FOR EACH TEAM
Followed by 2008’s actual win-loss mark in parentheses.
W L Team (2008 W-L)
8 8 Arizona (9-7)
10 6 Atlanta (11-5)
10 6 Baltimore (11-5)
7 9 Buffalo (7-9)
10 6 Carolina (12-4)
8 8 Chicago (9-7)
6 10 Cincinnati (4-11-1)
6 10 Cleveland (4-12)
10 6 Dallas (9-7)
8 8 Denver (8-8)
2 14 Detroit (0-16)
8 8 Green Bay (6-10)
8 8 Houston (8-8)
11 5 Indianapolis (12-4)
6 10 Jacksonville (5-11)
4 12 Kansas City (2-14)
8 8 Miami (11-5)
10 6 Minnesota (10-6)
12 4 New England (11-5)
8 8 New Orleans (8-8)
12 4 NY Giants (12-4)
8 8 NY Jets (9-7)
6 10 Oakland (5-11)
9 7 Philadelphia (9-6-1)
12 4 Pittsburgh (12-4)
9 7 San Diego (8-8)
6 10 San Francisco (7-9)
6 10 Seattle (4-12)
4 12 St. Louis (2-14)
6 10 Tampa Bay (9-7)
10 6 Tennessee (13-3)
8 8 Washington (8-8)
—Ian Allan
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Posted by JOHN MACHO | Mar. 02 at 09:49 AM
I know it's tough to venture too far from last year's records, but we've seen some wild swings in how teams perform from year to year. One trend I notice, is that when a very good team starts to get old, it crashes very fast, not gradually. Look at Seattle last year, and recall the 49ers a few years ago. Therefore, I think you have the Bucs, Colts, and Patriots a bit high. We shall see. Thanks for keeping football interesting in the off-season.