Factoid
NFL teams scored 58 percent of their offensive touchdowns on pass plays last year. That was the lowest percentage in the last 20 years.
The previous season, teams scored 65 percent of their touchdowns on passes – the highest percentage in the last 20 years.
I'm not sure how to explain this. A few quarterbacks were affected by injuries - Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Matt Hasselbeck. But quarterbacks get hurt every year, and there were plenty of quarterbacks last year who exceeded expectations. Drew Brees, Kurt Warner and Philip Rivers had huge years, and Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco were far better than expected.
I think it’s a just a fluke. A couple of teams were held back by really bad quarterbacking, and a few other teams (most notably, Carolina), helped skew the deal by running the ball really well. The Panthers scored 30 rushing touchdowns versus only 15 passing touchdowns.
I expect this trend to correct itself. For the 2009 season, my guess is that teams will average about 20.5 passing touchdowns and 13.5 rushing scores.
NFL TOUCHDOWN AVERAGES OF THE LAST 20 YEARS
The below chart shows cumulative NFL numbers. For 2009, teams averaged 14.9 rushing touchdowns – the highest figure in the last 20 years. But they averaged only 20.2 TD passes, the 2nd-lowest total since 1993.
Year TDP TDR
1989 20.8 13.9
1990 20.5 13.5
1991 18.3 12.8
1992 18.4 11.9
1993 18.5 10.9
1994 20.8 12.1
1995 22.1 12.8
1996 20.9 12.1
1997 20.6 12.8
1998 21.9 12.6
1999 21.5 11.7
2000 20.5 13.4
2001 20.5 11.8
2002 21.6 14.4
2003 20.4 13.3
2004 22.9 13.0
2005 20.1 13.5
2006 20.3 13.3
2007 22.5 12.1
2008 20.2 14.9
—Ian Allan
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