Rookie QBs on the rise
Posted Mar. 05 at 12:13 AM
The rule of thumb is that you can’t win with a rookie quarterback. And it’s been very reliable indicator for years.
But are things now changing? Maybe.
Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco both took their teams into the playoffs last year. Ben Roethlisberger went 13-0 as a rookie starter, and the Titans won games with Vince Young in 2006.
Of the seven rookie quarterbacks who’ve won over 60 percent of their games (while starting over half of the time), all but two of those guys have entered the league since 2004. Coincidence? Or maybe this trend is starting to change.
I’m not promising that Matthew Stafford or Mark Sanchez will come anywhere close to .500 in 2009, but given this recent shift, I’ll be more careful not to just assume that they’ll be just completely lost.
WINNINGEST ROOKIE QUARTERBACKS SINCE 1978
Among quarterbacks who started at least half of the time:
W L Pct. Year Team
13 0 1.000 2004 Pitt. Ben Roethlisberger
7 2 .778 1983 Mia. Dan Marino
9 4 .692 1988 Ind. Chris Chandler
11 5 .688 2008 Balt. Joe Flacco
11 5 .688 2008 Atl. Matt Ryan
10 5 .667 2005 Chi. Kyle Orton
8 5 .615 2006 Tenn. Vince Young
5 4 .556 2003 Balt. Kyle Boller
5 4 .556 2007 Buff. Trent Edwards
6 5 .545 1979 NYG Phil Simms
6 5 .545 1980 Mia. David Woodley
7 6 .538 1995 Car. Kerry Collins
Posted by JODY SMITH | Mar. 05 at 08:53 AM
I was thinking about this. Remember in 2007 when Adrian Peterson had one of those once a decade dominant rookie seasons and that caused so many people to overvalue Darren McFadden last season? What are the odds that the same thing happens in 2009 draft/auctions based on the unusual success of Flacco and Ryan? It's not as if McFadden was awful...he was hurt most of the year. Also, it's not as if no rookie RB's warranted high picks..it was just the other guys.
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