Ian Allan
I’ve long felt that the fade pattern is the most overrated play in the NFL.
Every year, you hear about guys who are 6-foot-4 or 6-foot-5, and how they’re going to be a real weapon on fades around the goal line. But rarely does it actually happen.
Every time I look into it, I find that the tall, fade-oriented receivers are actually less effective around the end zone. The quick-hitting passes to smaller receivers seem to be more effective.
Even the great Randy Moss caught only 3 of the 13 passes thrown his way inside the 10 last year. I’ll admit that Moss was effective on fades the previous year – when we had one of the great receivers working with one of the great quarterbacks – but the overall trend is that you don’t seem to see consistent success from tall receivers.
Plaxico Burress is one example of a tall receiver who’s consistently unproductive around the goal-line. And remember how there was all that talk out of Buffalo last year about 6-foot-6 rookie James Hardy being an unstoppable force in the red zone?
So, since I’m working on the Arizona team today, I’ll trot out some numbers comparing Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Fitzgerald, of course, is maybe the best fade-route option in the NFL (if it’s not Moss, it’s fade). Boldin represents the inside option – he’s got that route he runs where he comes in behind the slot receiver, using him as a screen.
Check out the numbers from the last two years:
Fitzgerald inside 10, 2007-2008
29 pass attempts
12 completions
12 touchdowns
(41 percent completion rate)
(41 percent end-zone rate)
Boldin inside 10, 2007-2008
24 pass attempts
19 completions
14 touchdowns
(79 percent completion rate)
(58 percent end-zone rate)
—Ian Allan
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Posted by Billy LeRoy | May. 05 at 03:42 PM
Interesting observation. I agree with you on just about everything 95% of the time. This is no different, but I do think the biggest reason for Boldin's gaudy numbers inside the ten is that the defense has Fitz to worry about. Pick your poison!