Fanex: market sluggish for quarterbacks
Posted May. 17 at 03:18 AM
They just completed the second round of the “Fanex Analysis Draft” – one of the oldest and most prestigous of the online experts leagues. I believe they started the competition in 1996.
Running backs dominated the first round. All of the first 10 picks were running backs. Since that time, we’ve seen an equal split of running backs and wide receivers, with one quarterback (Tom Brady).
I traded down in this draft. Rather than select Larry Fitzgerald, I traded down a round and selected Wes Welker instead. There’s a downgrade in production there – about 25 points, I figure – but I should make that up with the extra fifth-rounder I have. I expect to select a starting running back with that draft choice.
This is a 20-round draft. Scoring system includes 1 point per reception (hence the Welker selection). Teams start QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, K, D and one flex player – a RB-WR-TE. With the point-per-reception dynamic, it makes the most sense to primarily deploy a wide receiver in that flex role – so it’s really like you’re starting four wide receivers. That’s why I’ve selected Steve Smith and Wes Welker with my first two choices. I imagine I’ll select another wide receiver at the end of the third round.
Only one quarterback has been selected so far, which is a surprise to me. There are some good ones out there. The guy on the clock – T.C. Cannon – has selected quarterbacks late in the second round in the past, so my guess is he’ll grab Drew Brees with the next selection.
2009 FANEX ANALYSIS DRAFT
1.01 RB Adrian Peterson (Dolfi)
1.02 RB Michael Turner (Cannon)
1.03 RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Pitzer)
1.04 RB LaDainian Tomlinson (Kellogg)
1.05 RB Matt Forte (Davis)
1.06 RB Steven Jackson (Cahill)
1.07 RB Chris Johnson (Holm)
1.08 RB Frank Gore (Hulett)
1.09 RB DeAngelo Williams (O’Leary)
1.10 RB Brian Westbrook (Rito)
1.11 WR Larry Fitzgerald (Cannon) - trade
1.12 RB Steve Slaton (Harmon)
2.01 WR Randy Moss (Harmon)
2.02 WR Steve Smith (Allan)
2.03 WR Andre Johnson (Rito)
2.04 RB Clinton Portis (O’Leary)
2.05 RB Darren McFadden (Hulett)
2.06 WR Calvin Johnson (Holm)
2.07 RB Brandon Jacobs (Cahill)
2.08 RB Marion Barber (Davis)
2.09 QB Tom Brady (Kellogg)
2.10 WR Reggie Wayne (Pitzer)
2.11 WR Wes Welker (Allan) - trade
2.12 RB Ronnie Brown (Dolfi)
3.01 WR Roddy White (Dolfi)
This draft can be followed at myfantasyleague.com.
To read the reasoning for each pick by each expert, click here.
Update: Next three picks were Brees, Ryan Grant and TO.
Posted by Tod Denison | May. 17 at 06:59 AM
While I always respect your opinion, think I would have selected Fitzgerald instead of trade down. Arizona plays in the weak NFC West, and have a very favorable schedule against the pass this year...just my opinion.
Posted by IAN ALLAN | May. 17 at 07:13 AM
Sure. That's fine. Fitzgerald is the guy I would have selected there. But according to my math, I'm giving up only about 25-30 points of production there, and I'm receiving pick 5.02 in return. That fifth-rounder will be a starting running backs -- somebody who should have a "bang for the buck" value of about 70 points. So I'm giving away 30 to get 70 -- and that doesn't include the trade up from round 10 to 9. I think it will work fine.
Posted by Duane Stay | May. 17 at 08:00 AM
Since it's PPR and the big TD RB's are gone, I wonder if Reggie Bush would work? Normally I don't like him, but PPR is a different game. Since you've gone WR heavy the PPR game seams to be your strategy.
Posted by Travis Billman | May. 17 at 11:52 PM
Man, some good names left: Boldin and Colston would be my top WR's; Bush, K. Smith and D. Ward would be my top RB's left (with PPR especially)
Posted by Duane Stay | May. 18 at 08:08 AM
I can't help but feel a little cocky to see that Ian did what I would have done. If the knee holds up Bush will get a ton of PPR's.
Posted by IAN ALLAN | May. 18 at 01:25 PM
I'm not really a fan of the PPR format. If I were to propose a rule to the rest of the league, "Hey guys, how about we give running backs double credit for their receiving production?" it would die without even being discussed. That, basically, is what the PPR format is. If you're playing in that type of format, you have to get running backs who will catch 40-plus passes. If one guy runs for 1,000 yards but doesn't catch any passes and another runs for only 500 yards but catches 50 passes for another 500 yards, that second guy is actually 50 percent more valuable -- 150 to 100 points. That was the thinking in going with Bush. It's a no-moves league, though, so I've got to hope he stays healthy.
Posted by Duane Stay | May. 22 at 05:27 AM
Good pick on Ray Rice. Baltimore will always run and play D.
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