Winners, losers in 2009 Fanex draft
Posted Jun. 06 at 02:16 AM
I did get a chance to look over those Fanex rosters.
I’m never quite sure how to grade those things – how much weight to give projected starting lineups versus backups and whatnot. It’s an unusual league, with no waiver moves during the season and lineups determined on a “best-ball” basis. And experts draft different numbers of guys.
I wasn’t sure how to numerically penalize the experts who went with just one kicker or one defense. At the volatile defense position, I think it will cost guys about 30-50 points to go without that second defense. If you had the No. 5 defense last year and added to it the No. 15 defense and look at the week-by-week production, that’s the kind of addition you’re looking at. And one expert selected only Matt Prater at kicker, which I think is crazy (I think he’s a 50-50 bet to last the season in Denver).
Anyway, each team drafted at least two quarterbacks, one kicker, one defense, two tight ends and 10 players at the RB-WR positions (which become kind of interchangeable in this format, with the “flex” player rule). I threw out the other four players for each team and totaled up the points for just those 16 positions. It’s a long season and attrition is key, so I just gave full weight to all player scores. And using my numbers (my projections for 2009), scores work out as follows …
2926 Chris Rito
2924 Tony Holm
2868 Matt Pitzer
2800 Chris Dolfi
2770 Duane Cahill
2759 Greg Kellogg
2750 Shannon O’Leary
2702 T.C. Cannon
2696 Mike Harmon
2681 Brian Hulett
2649 Craig Davis
I’m not including my own scores in there, because nobody likes to hear guys brag about their own team. Obviously, for anybody doing this kind of thing, their own players will be projected to score more points. If these other experts had the same confidence that I do in players like Anthony Gonzalez, Ray Rice and Brent Celek, they would have picked them.
As the final step, I took the top three experts out for a closer look. As look would have it, each selected 3 QB, 2 PK, 2 TE, 2 D-ST and 11 RB-WR. So I expanded the thing out to the full 20-man rosters. Points turn out as follows …
3458 Tony Holm
3435 Chris Rito
1924 Matt Pitzer
So I’ll go with Holm as the expert who drafted the best team. He was also the expert I picked to have the best team last year (and he came in 2nd place of those 11 teams in 2008, 27 points out of the lead). I also, ironically, singled out Pitzer as one of my top 3 last year, but he finished in 5th of those 11.
Rito’s team, by the way, has already been rocked by injuries. He picked Brian Westbrook with the 10th pick – a gamble I would have wanted no part of. And then he compounded that gamble by declining to ever insure that pick with LeSean McCoy. McCoy was eventually chosen in the 12th round. That one could come back to haunt Rito (who works with Michael Nazarek in this league). Their team also has Adam Vinatieri at kicker, who just underwent a hip surgery that could sideline him until mid-August.
To see how the other experts are ranking the teams (and what they felt were the best and worst picks), click here. So far, nine experts have posted their opinions, and three experts have each been named twice in the “Which coach did the best” portion – Holm (including my vote), Chris Rito and also my team.
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