Ian Allan
I posted a little blurb about the whole “Running Back By Committee” paranoia early today.
Last summer, a reader sent in a letter asking if teams really were tending to use more RBBC. After looking briefly at the numbers, the reader suggested he didn’t think they really were – that it was all overrated.
So I ran a few numbers on it myself. Without looking at it particularly carefully, I came to the same conclusion.
When I posted that note, however, a couple of readers (earlier today) wrote in to complain. Maybe “complain” is too strong of a word, but they wanted to see more numbers on it – they weren’t convinced by the quick glance look at it.
So below, see a more detailed look at how running back work has been divided up. I looked at every team. I compared how it used its running backs last year versus how it used its running backs 20 years ago. (So I looked at each team in 1988 and 2008).
For each team, the main runners are listed, and then there’s an opinion of which one used more of a “RBBC” approach.
My findings – and this will surprise some – is that of the 28 teams that existed in both 1988 and 2008, far more used a RBBC approach twenty years ago. I’ve got 1988 winning by an 11-4 margin, with 13 teams being about the same.
So what do we conclude? My belief is that a few years ago, the “Running Back By Committee” catchword starting catching on, and everyone has been noticing when teams tend to split the workload between multiple backs, but that in reality, nothing has really changed. I agree with the argument first raised by the reader (and I’m sorry, I don’t recall his name): That the whole RBBC-is-going-to-ruin-fantasy-football deal is just a bunch of baloney.
SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION:
HOW TEAMS COMPARED IN 1988 VERSUS 2008
ARIZONA CARDINALS (PHOENIX CARDINALS)
1988: Earl Ferrell, Stump Mitchell shared time.
2008: Edgerrin James, Tim Hightower shared time.
More RBBC?: even.
ATLANTA FALCONS
1988: John Settle started. Gerald Riggs: 488 yards.
2008: Michael Turner started. Jerious Norwood: 489 yards.
More RBBC?: even.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Team was located in Cleveland (see Browns).
BUFFALO BILLS
1988: Thurman Thomas and Robb Riddick shared time.
2008: Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson shared time.
More RBBC?: even.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
Franchise didn’t exist in 1988.
CHICAGO BEARS
1988: Neal Anderson started. Thomas Sanders and Matt Suhey combined for 585 yards and 5 TDs.
2008: Matt Forte played full-time.
More RBBC?: 1988.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
1988: James Brooks and Ickey Woods shared time.
2008: primarily a one-back team, with Chris Perry at the start of the season, then Cedric Benson taking over in October.
More RBBC?: 1988.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
1988: Earnest Byner, Kevin Mack and Tim Manoa shared time.
2008: Jamal Lewis was primary back. Jason Wright on some passing downs.
More RBBC?: 1988.
DALLAS COWBOYS
1988: Herschel Walker was clearly the guy.
2008: Marion Barber and Tashard Choice had many “featured” games. Felix Jones saw some change-of-pace work.
More RBBC?: 2008.
DENVER BRONCOS
1988: Tony Dorsett and Sammy Winder shared time.
2008: A half-dozen guys started games at tailback; some rotation.
More RBBC?: even.
DETROIT LIONS
1988: James Jones and Garry James shared time.
2008: Kevin Smith was featured for most of the year.
More RBBC?: 1988.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
1988: Four running backs had 48-101 carries.
2008: Ryan Grant was featured; Brandon Jackson on third downs.
More RBBC?: 1988.
HOUSTON TEXANS
Team didn’t exist in 1988.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
1988: Eric Dickerson was main back; Albert Bentley played on third downs (26 rec).
2008: Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes shared time.
More RBBC?: 2008.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Team didn’t exist in 1988.
KANSAS CITY
1988: Christian Okoye, Paul Palmer, Herman Heard shared time.
2008: Larry Johnson was main back; Jamaal Charles played on some third downs.
More RBBC?: 1988.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
1988: Lorenzo Hampton, Troy Stradford, Ron Davenport shared time.
2008: Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams shared time.
More RBBC?: even.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
1988: Six running backs ran for 150-380 yards.
2008: Adrian Peterson is main guy, with Chester Taylor spelling.
More RBBC?: 1988.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
1988: John Stephens: 1168 yards, 4 TD; Bob Perryman: 448 yds, 6 TD
2008: Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris, LaMont Jordan & others played
More RBBC?: 2008.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
1988: Dalton Hilliard, Rueben Mayes, Ironhead Heyward all factors.
2008: Reggie Bush, Pierre Thomas, Deuce McAllister all factors.
More RBBC?: even.
NEW YORK GIANTS
1988: Joe Morris ran for 1,083 and 5 TDs, but Ottis Anderson held goal-line role, running for 208 yards and 8 TDs.
2008: Brandon Jacobs gets a big workload but Derrick Ward also plays.
More RBBC?: even.
NEW YORK JETS
1988: Freeman McNeil, Johnny Hector, Roger Vick shared timed.
2008: Thomas Jones, spelled by Leon Washington.
More RBBC?: 1988.
OAKLAND RAIDERS (LOS ANGELES RAIDERS)
1988: Marcus Allen and Bo Jackson shared time.
2008: Justin Fargas and Darren McFaddens hared time.
More RBBC?: even.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
1988: Keith Byars, Anthony Tony got run for 502-517 yards.
2008: Brian Westbrook is featurned, with Correll Buckhalter getting some carries.
More RBBC?: 1988.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
1988: Merril Hoge, Warren Williams and others shared time.
2008: Willie Parker was main back; Mewelde Moore on third downs.
More RBBC?: 1988.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
1988: Gary Anderson was main back. Tim Spencer: 215 yards.
2008: LaDainian Tomlinson was main back. Sproles: 330 yards.
More RBBC?: even.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
1988: Roger Craig got most of the work.
2008: Frank Gore got most of the work.
More RBBC?: even.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
1988: Curt Warner: 1025 yds, 10 TDs; John L. Williams: 877 yds, 4 TD
2008: Maurice Morris, Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett shared time.
More RBBC?: 2008.
ST. LOUIS RAMS (LOS ANGELES RAMS)
1988: Greg Bell runs for 1,212 yards and 16 TDs.
2008: Steven Jackson is main guy when healthy.
More RBBC?: even.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
1988: Four backs carried the ball 63-122 times.
2008: Warrick Dunn, Earnest Graham shared time.
More RBBC?: even.
TENNESSEE TITANS (HOUSTON OILERS)
1988: Mike Rozier, Allen Pinkett, Alonzo Highsmith shared time.
2008: Chris Johnson and LenDale White shared time.
More RBBC?: even.
WASHINGTON
1988: Kelvin Bryant, Timmy Smith, Jamie Morris each ran for 437-498 yards.
2008: Clinton Portis was main back.
More RBBC?: 1988.
—Ian Allan
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Posted by Travis Billman | Jun. 09 at 06:56 AM
I was one of the guys who "complained," so I appreciate you looking back over the figures. I thought I'd do my own research on the subject to look at the % of team yards by the leading rusher, and while I'm just getting started, my initial findings are suprisingly in favor of your recent comments. In fact, just the listing of 1,000 yard rushers that you gave is very telling. 1,000 yard rushers have grown by about 50% from 20 years ago! I'm curious now to see if in fact there was a boom of strong rushers 5-10 years ago that boosted our thought of the "one-back" system, which has now tapered back a bit. As such, we got used to a strong one-back system that inflated the numbers of the top dozen backs, and now with the spread offense and other factors, RB numbers are a bit less hefty. I definitely think you can say that it's more than just the "RBBC" that's affecting numbers.
Posted by Farhan Hassan | Jun. 09 at 07:51 AM
Maybe I am mistaken but it sure seems like these days, it is really tough to pinpoint running backs that are truly number 1. In the recent past, that has been Tomlinson but in the "old" days, it sure seemed like you could pick several of those number 1 running backs. Now, aside from AP (who doesn't catch the ball a lot) and maybe Steven Jackson (who is injury prone), I am not sure how many elite, 3 down back's are out there. 5-7 years ago, you knew that Terell Davis would get the ball. Now, you don't know if Chris Johnson will only get yardage only to be lifted at the goal line and supposedly, Chris Johnson is a top 10 back. That is why there has been a movement towards getting a number 1 receiver instead of a running back (see Ian's comments on this topic) because they rarely get hurt and you can rely on them to give you number 1 production.
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Jun. 10 at 03:14 AM
One thing I noticed, as I was looking at the 1988 numbers, is that fullbacks were a lot more involved in the past. They were on the field more, and they handled the ball more. Guys like Tom Rathman, Daryl Johnston, Matt Suhey, Steve Smith (Raiders) would run for 400-500 yards. I think there were at least a dozen fullbacks who'd run for over 300 yards. Now, looking at the 2009 season, it's possible that no fullbacks will run for even 100 yards. Leonard Weaver, I think, is the one guy who looks like an '80s fullback; maybe he runs for 200-300 yards. But they're a declining breed, and that may explain why Travis Billman is find that the number of 1,000-yard rushers is increasing (if fullbacks aren't running for those yards, then the tailback position is getting more work). As for Farhan's theory that there used to be a whole bunch of No. 1 tailbacks, I disagree. I think that might be just revisionist history. Look at the 1988. You might remember Curt Warner being a true No. 1, but there's John L. Williams (the king of the fullbacks at that time) with 877 yards. You may think Thurman Thomas was a No. 1 back for the Bills, but Robb Riddick (not a fullback) ran for 438 yards and got the goal-line work, punching in 12 TDs.
Posted by Farhan Hassan | Jun. 10 at 03:57 AM
Ian: These are all good points (especially the fullback therory) but my point, which in retrospect, was poorly framed, was geared towards reliability. These days, I cannot truly rely on a runner like Chris Johnson on a game to game basis because he has to contend with Lendale White (I would offer your Fannex draft as evidence where you took Lendale White). I don't think there is any argument that there are plenty of running backs out there with a great deal of production but could someone have really started J. Stewart with a great deal of confidence last year? By all accounts, J. Stewart had a very good year, both in terms of touchdowns and yardage, but his production was unpredictable and thus, unreliable. Derick Ward, who had a 1000 yard season was also in thh same boat. I had him last year and could not start him because I had no clue if he was going to put up a stinker or would have a good game. It is this level of unreliability and how a running back is now used by teams that causes the problems. You just don't have that level of turmoil with the number 1 and number 2 wide receiver (of most teams).
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Jun. 10 at 04:58 AM
Chris Johnson won't get any goal-line carries. That might hold him down to around 7-8 TDs. But he'll run for 1,100-1,200 yards and he'll also catch 50 passes for another 400 yards. I think that makes him good enough to be an every-week starting running back.
Posted by L DALE GANDER | Jun. 11 at 11:43 AM
Great study, Ian. I never get tired of discussing RBBC each year. It appears simple but is quite complex. One note on '88 - Free Agency. Half the NFL goes upside down each season, making production inconsistent for many teams from one year to the next. I think these days you not only have to worry about player consistency, but also the team he is on. Aside from your first round pick blowing out a knee, your second biggest fear is that his team will follow their playoff year with a 4-12 season. Also, I think you can look at the numbers you ran and see a slight trend over the past 5-10 years toward more RBBCs. I think looking at 20 yrs ago is going back a bit too far. In the end, I think a good part of the RBBC illusion is the great talent depth. Years ago, I think RBBC was the result of a lack of "talent" (or perhaps athleticism) - now it is from a surplus of it. This gives the appearance that good RBs are not putting up big numbers.