Ian Allan
Yesterday, I posted a short blurb on Strength of Schedule. From the comments that were posted, I can see that many didn’t see the extensive study I did on that topic for the 2008 edition of Fantasy Football Index. I’ll see if I can get a pdf of that article posted on the website.
Some of the findings from that article:
Preseason strength of schedule indicators are fairly reliable. Teams projecting to play the hardest schedules do, in fact, tend to play hard schedules. And teams projecting to play easy schedules tend to wind up playing easy schedules. Rarely will you see a team that is projected to play the hardest schedule then play a schedule that is above-average in easiest. I’ll post some numbers on this within a few days.
Strength of schedule information based on rushing or passing stats or points allowed isn’t nearly as meaningful as the basic formula of wins and losses. I’ll also address this sometime in the coming days.
Yesterday I posted some teams with historically tough schedules – there are a lot of 2009 teams that will play unusually hard schedules. That being the case, you know that there will also be plenty of teams this season that are projecting to play very easy schedules. I’m listing the best of those, and showing how they stack up against other easy schedules since 1993.
Note in particular the Steelers. They had a really tough schedule last year, and while they won the Super Bowl, I think that schedule contributed to their offense putting up lesser numbers than usual – maybe 10 percent below where it should have been. Now the Steelers are going to play a really easy schedule, so they might get that 10 percent back, plus move another 10 percent because of the number of weak defenses they’ll face.
EASIEST SCHEDULES, 1993-2009
Figures on combined win-loss totals of opponents heading into the season.
W L T Pct.
99 157 0 .387 2008 New England
101 155 0 .395 1999 Cleveland
104 152 0 .406 1999 ** Cincinnati
105 149 2 .414 2009 Chicago
107 148 1 .420 2009 Minnesota
108 148 0 .422 2008 San Diego
109 147 0 .426 2000 Philadelphia
109 146 1 .428 2009 Green Bay
110 146 0 .430 1993 Detroit
110 146 0 .430 2000 St. Louis
111 145 0 .434 1995 ** Chicago
111 145 0 .434 1995 ** Cleveland
111 145 0 .434 1995 ** NY Jets
111 145 0 .434 1999 St. Louis
110 144 2 .434 2009 Pittsburgh
112 144 0 .438 1999 ** Baltimore
112 144 0 .438 1999 ** Tennessee
112 144 0 .438 2002 * Cleveland
112 144 0 .438 2008 Oakland
111 143 2 .438 2009 Baltimore
113 143 0 .441 1995 ** Tampa Bay
113 143 0 .441 2000 Arizona
113 143 0 .441 2000 Oakland
113 143 0 .441 2002 Houston
113 143 0 .441 2002 * Pittsburgh
113 143 0 .441 2009 Arizona
113 142 1 .443 2003 Arizona
113 142 1 .443 2003 Seattle
113 142 1 .443 2009 San Francisco
* -- includes game against expansion team (projected at 3-13)
* -- includes two games against expansion teams (projected at 3-13)
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Posted by Travis Billman | Jun. 13 at 02:58 AM
I think you make a great point about the potential rebound of the Steelers players. My question now is do you know of a place to find the difficulty of a teams schedule against pass/run after the season ended? For instance, Steve Slaton came out of nowhere to have a great rushing season. If Houston played against the easiest run schedule (when all was said and done), his success could be more based on his schedule than his ability (which could affect this year's ranking). Does this make sense?