Andy Richardson

After Brett Favre went on HBO last night and told Joe Buck that "maybe" he was coming back to the NFL, there's little doubt that he will, in fact, be playing this season. There was no reason for him to have shoulder surgery if he didn't want to play, and there was no reason for him to do a national TV interview (albeit one of the softball variety on a channel most people don't have) if he weren't confident he'd be able to. Why torch what's left of your reputation with millions of Packers fans by saying you want to play for the Vikings unless you know that in a couple of months you actually will be playing for them?

I'm well-known as a pretty diehard Favre fan, even to the point of writing a painfully obsolete back-page column saying "goodbye" to him in last year's preseason annual. And since my league has been named after the guy for the past four years (Favre Farewell Tour, Favre Farewell Tour?, Favre Comeback Tour, and now Favre Comeback Tour?), I'll be compelled to draft him at least one time -- nobody else is likely to have the temerity to select him in that league.

But that's about it. I won't be drafting him anywhere else, and it's not because I don't like the guy -- although this latest ridiculous waffle doesn't help -- but because I'm not expecting him to be a starting-caliber fantasy quarterback. If he actually wants to get through a full season, the only way that's going to happen is by him having the kind of year his replacement with the Jets, Mark Sanchez, will have in New York. Hand the ball off a lot, don't get hit much, and hope the running game and defense can win games and protect him from opposing pass-rushers -- and himself.

At 40 years old (in October), Favre's body isn't capable of holding up for 16 games anymore. He proved that last season, even though he actually started that many. A year older, there's no reason to think he's better prepared for the rigors of a full season.

Even assuming he plays 16 games (and he probably will; if he breaks his passing arm he'll be out there throwing left-handed), he's not going to put up huge numbers. In the Brad Childress era in Minnesota, the offense that according to Favre he's played in all his life has averaged 16 TD passes per season. It's ranked 18th, 20th, 25th and 28th in passing yards. Some of that has to do with the quarterbacks they've chosen to employ, but a 40-year-old Brett Favre isn't necessarily a huge departure from that. No way is he going to be slinging it around 30-35 times a game in this offense.

In short, the best-case scenario for Favre in Minnesota is probably that he starts 16 games, averages 210 passing yards per game (the Vikings last year averaged 201; the Jets 220) and throws 20 TDs. Based on last year's NFL numbers, that would put him about 12th in TDs and 19th in yards; he'd rank around 18th among fantasy quarterbacks; probably lower if your league penalizes for interceptions. Woo! That's not a player you target on draft day. And that's the best-case scenario.

Favre will play in the NFL this season, and he'll be drafted as a starter in many fantasy leagues. Not by me.

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