Posted by Gregory Oswell | Jun. 26 at 11:27 AM

You are in a difficult position here but you should go with the guy you think will score more points in the PPR format. If you honestly believe MJD or Forte will outproduce AP then you need to select one of those guys, regardless of what people might say. Also, while AP is clearly a great runner with a solid offensive line, he has yet to be a consistent TD guy. MJD on the other hand clearly has a nose for the endzone and is playing behind what should be a much improved offensive line. The last two seasons AP has finished as the #3 RB in my standard scoring league. MJD has finished 8th ('07) and 7th ('08) if you add 1ppr AP would have finished 5th ('07) and 7th ('08) while MJD would rank 7th ('07) and 4th ('08). Another interesting point is that in '07 AP had 41 more touches than MJD and in '08 AP had a whopping 145 more touches than MJD. I think it is fair to say that APs total touches will decline from 405 and MJDs will increase from 259. In a PPR format MJD seems like clearly a better choice than AP. Forte likely is a better option too. He would have been the #2 RB in a PPR last season and he touched the ball 26 fewer times than AP. But with only one year of work and a huge change in the offensive dynamic in Chicago he is a riskier proposition than MJD and AP.

Posted by Joe Savitsky | Jun. 26 at 11:56 AM

Assuming you cannot trade down (which would be preferable), I think you should take Jones-Drew. I figure MJD and Peterson are probably a wash in terms of TD's (12-15) and yards from scrimmage (1500-2100), but Jones-Drew will catch 40 more passes. Keep in mind that, barring injury, MJD has nowhere to go but up after splitting time last year behind a line that was totally decimated by injuries. I'm pretty sure you will still be able to get one of the 2nd tier WR's (White, Jennings, Welker, Boldin) and a high RB2 with RB1-upside like Ronnie Brown or Pierre Thomas.

Posted by Duane Stay | Jun. 26 at 12:06 PM

AP will do fine, but a little glitch to remember and take into consideration is the fact that there will be two new lineman on the Viking line. Rookie Loadholt at right tackle and second year man Sullivan at center. Pro bowl center Matt Birk is now in Baltimore, because he couldn't stand anymore Childress. If these new lineman can come through AP will be a definite number one. Roll the dice.

Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Jun. 26 at 12:23 PM

Gregory, nice analysis. Joe, right now I agree that Jones-Drew is the guy to take. Certainly based on the numbers we have in front of us. The best I can say for Peterson is if one of these guys is going to rush for 1800 yards and score 20-plus TDs, he's the most likely one to do it. He's playing in the best offense on the best team. Duane, I agree there's some risk on the line, but if Loadholt flops they could always turn back to Cook. Sullivan is a minor concern but I did like him coming out of college. Anyway, to me it's a 2-man race between Peterson and Jones-Drew, and I'm leaning slightly Jones-Drew's way right now....but the draft is still 3 days away, so you never know.

Posted by Chris Muschon | Jun. 26 at 07:27 PM

What if Favre goes to Minn? Should bump Peterson's numbers like he bumped Thomas Jones'.

Posted by Gregory Oswell | Jun. 27 at 08:57 AM

I think Alan Faneca was more responsible for the uptick in Thomas Jones' numbers than Favre. I think TJ would have had similar numbers had the Jets stuck with Pennington. The Vikings use Chester Taylor in obvious passing situations too. AP does not look like a 60 catch running back, MJD is.

Posted by nathan ouellette | Jun. 27 at 09:49 AM

Here's a question for you Andy. Let's say someone wrote into this site and asked you the exact same question you are asking us. As a contributor on this site, what would your answer be? I think that whatever advice you would give to the reader is the route you should take. Unless of course your advice would be to trade down (my preference) and that is not allowed in this league. If that's not allowed, why not? Its an experts league, and presumably, these leagues exist so readers like us can glean some insight. If an 'expert's" preference is to trade down shouldn't that be allowed as a teaching tool to the paying customer? If you can't trade down, go with MJD. I believe AP is the best player in football, hands down, but the real game and the fantasy game are 2 different things. For example, if I were starting a real baseball team, pitching would be my primary and probably secondary focuses. In the fantasy game, its all about the hitting.

Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Jun. 27 at 05:41 PM

Nathan -- Well, my initial answer would be to point you to Ian's rankings, which in this case would be Forte I believe. Of course, those rankings are very close, and they change a lot. And I personally would take MJD or Peterson over Forte just because of the longer track record. I haven't looked into whether trading is allowed in the league; just found out I had the top pick yesterday. If I stay put, I will probably go with MJD at this point. Bottom line, I think he'll score more total points in a PPR league than Peterson. But it's so close I could make a case either way. It's interesting that the last I checked, the two had almost split the voting, too, each accounting for somewhere around 30 percent of the vote.