Ask the Experts
Posted Jul. 02 at 12:01 AM
ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them:
Who is the most overrated player you've seen in drafts thus far?
Brian Westbrook. Coming off the worst season of his career since 2005, Westbrook had arthroscopic surgery on his knee in February and ankle surgery in June In 12-team leagues, his current ADP is 15 (2.04) as the 11th running back off the board. For a player turning 30 prior to the season with his past injury history, that’s too rich for my blood.
Hawes is the Managing Editor of NFL content at Fanball.com. Fanball.com and OwnersEdge.com offer league management software, daily play fantasy games, Live Advice, up-to-date news, free and premium content, player rankings, custom projections and cheat sheets, in-depth IDP analysis, Fantasy Buffet Radio Show, NFL Draft Kit, Fanball Blog Network, daily newsletter, a vast array of fantasy football tools, including Draft Analyzer software and five magazines featuring the Pro Football Draft Preview, as well as four Fantasy Football publications. For more information send e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Chris Johnson - Most early drafts have him going in the number 7 pick overall. Johnson had a fantastic rookie season with 1488 total yards and 10 touchdowns. Realistically he is still going to be in a RBBC situation with LenDale White and White will get the all important goal line carries. If we combine that with their defense losing some ground with the loss of Jim Schwartz and Albert Haynesworth, Johnson should be a early to mid second round pick.
The May brothers have more than 16 years of combined fantasy football experience and are the co-founders of FantasyDraftMaster.com. The cornerstone of FDM is the UberRank which is a revolutionary approach to the traditional fantasy football cheat sheet. FantasyDraftMaster.com also offers insightful and humorous commentary on football happenings as well as recommendations on waiver wire pickups, line up submissions and weekly pick em' pools. For more info, visit www.fantasydraftmaster.com or email us at email@example.com.
Tom Brady is one of the most over-rated players we have seen so far in early drafts. Keep in mind regardless of how healthy he looks in camp, the real truth will come out once he starts getting hit during the season. Were not saying that Brady won't have a great year, but expectations on him returning to prior norms right away may be over-stated. In general it takes a year and a half for a player to return to form from injury.
Kamys is president of Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports. His company, via the web, offers player news, injury reports, cheat sheets, projections, weekly matchups, statistics, and a customized team tracker. Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports also e-mails preseason newsletters and reports throughout the season. For more info visit www.docstats.com or send email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
It has to be San Diego Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson. I've seen him go as high as #4 overall despite his many recent injuries and the fact he's now 30 years old. He's barely in my top 10 fantasy RBs, and there's no way I'd take him in the top half of the first round of a draft this summer.
Nazarek is the CEO of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. His company offers an online rookie draft kit, preseason draft guide, customizable cheat sheets, fantasy auction & regular drafting programs, weekly in-season fantasy newsletters, injury reports and free NFL news (updated daily) at its web site. He has been playing fantasy football since 1988 and is the reigning four-peat champion of the SI.com Experts Fantasy League, a nationally published writer in several fantasy magazines and a columnist for SI.com. For more info go to www.ffmastermind.com. Nazarek can be reached at 702-568-7118 or email@example.com.
Brian Westbrook clearly carries risk and Clinton Portis breaks down too much in the 2nd half for our liking also. However, Marshawn Lynch has gone awfully high in drafts this year (late 3rd / early 4th round). He'll miss three games for starters due to suspention and then potentially will run smack dab into a RBBC situation with Fred Jackson and Dominic Rhodes. Lynch improved his receptions last year which is a plus, but he has a fairly modest 4.1 YPC average over his two-year career - Fred Jackson has a 4.6 YPC average over that same time frame. Lynch's rushing attempts declined last year (from 280 to 251, despite two more starts) - in fact, he went from nine 20+ carry games as a rookie to just four last year. That trend isn't likely to reverse this year. If that wasn't enough, Lynch has zero room for error. One minor legal incident and he instantly faces more suspension time. We actually like Lynch's skill-set, but he carries too much risk for a 3rd round pick.
Heck is a founding partner at Dynasty Rogues, a fantasy football website filled with football enthusiasts, run by football enthusiasts. The company provides year-round dynasty and redraft fantasy football coverage and analysis, including Dynasty Rogues Radio and the Rogues Forum. The site can be reached at www.dynastyrogues.com.
The most overrated player is Matt Forte who has been drafted as early as No. 2 in leagues I have seen. While certainly he is no bust this year, he has an entirely different situation. 2008 saw the Bears dump Cedric Benson during the summer and the only replacement they could get at the late-July date was Kevin Jones who did not have time to learn the playbook and was recovering from a knee injury. Jones will be a factor this year and the coaching staff wants to reduce the workload of Forte who’s fantasy value last year stemmed largely from his league-leading 63 receptions that won’t happen again. Jones is slated to cut into those and the Bears always prefer to use a committee when they can. Add in Jay Cutler who will throw down field unlike Orton who could only dump off and Forte gets drafted too early.
Dorey is the co-founder and Senior NFL Analyst at The Huddle since 1997. He has produced award winning rankings and has projected the fantasy stats for every game over the last 13 years. David produces the bulk of The Huddle rankings and his “Predictions and Projections” breaks down every single NFL game every week through the Super Bowl. You can find more about David at TheHuddle.com.
I’ll go with LaDainian Tomlinson and Matt Cassel. I’ve seen Tomlinson go in the top 5 of two drafts. To me, that’s just crazy. He’s 30 and he’s slowing down; I also think he’ll be spelled a lot more this season. The Chargers also have Darren Sproles (who’s far more explosive), so I imagine they’ll give him a lot more work this season. I see Tomlinson, therefore, as more of about the 15th best running back on the board. As for Cassel, he’s showing up in the top 15 (among quarterbacks) on most draft boards, but I have no interest in him. I think he’s just a very ordinary guy who happened to play quarterback last year for one of the best offenses in the league. Now that he’s in Kansas City, where all 10 guys around him aren’t as good, I’m confident he’ll struggle.
Ian Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index. He’s been in that role since 1987, generating most of the player rankings and analysis for that publication. His work can be seen in Fantasy Football Index magazine, and also at the company’s website, www.fantasyindex.com.
Any WR in the Top 8 of a standard scoring league and most rookies. A top performing RB in fantasy football is a must and the really good ones are getting fewer and farther between - passing up one to get a WR, even the No. 1 WR is a mistake. And as always, rookies are going higher than they should.
Endsley is co-owner and a senior fantasy football consultant for FantasyDraftEdge.com offering customizable fantasy football cheat sheets and professional VIP advice all season long. For more info, go to www.fantasydraftedge.com.
I would have to say Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is the most overrated player in early drafts. He had a fantastic year in 2008, no doubt, but I've witnessed him go as high as No. 4 overall in an experts league, which is simply unacceptable. Even in a point-per-reception format, Fitz doesn't warrant a pick higher than No. 9 or No. 10, and that high is even a stretch. There is too much of a chance for a letdown, and owners can pick up the PPR slack in the midrounds with possession receivers. Fitzgerald could have a fine year (approximately 1,450 yards and 12 touchdowns), but where people are drafting him is insane when you can land San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson (1,500-plus, 12 TDs in a down year) and get better value. If you want to go younger, Carolina Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams is just as likely to produce the same amount of fantasy points as Fitzgerald is, and I've seen him slide into the second round on at least one occasion recently.
KFFL.com offers fantasy football, fantasy baseball and fantasy NASCAR content. We have captured well more than a dozen expert league championships. Founded in 1996, KFFL offers award-winning daily news feeds, preseason draft guides, player rankings, sleepers, busts, weekly newsletters and more. KFFL is completely free! For more information, visit www.kffl.com.
Tom Brady is going in many drafts as the top QB, late in the second round. But his 50 TD 2007 season was an anomaly, not a standard. Expect a regression to his mean (28 TDs are a better projection) and 4th best QB. Anyone drafting him in the second or third round will be disappointed, even if he does fully recover from his 2008 knee injury.
Sam Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Almanac 2009, all available at his website, www.ffguidebook.com, at all major bookstores, and at www.amazon.com. He is a 19-year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF), National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th overall in the 2008 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).
DeAngelo Willliams is currently ranked 5th to 8th overall by most preseason polls and experts. I believe this ranking is too high and is based on LAST year's performance and not what he will do in 2009. I think he will have a good season, but with Jonathan Stewart getting more carries and Jake Delhomme another year off his injured elbow there is no way he can repeat 1,600 yards and 20 touchdowns. I believe 1,300 yards and 10 TDs is more accurate, placing him 11-14 overall at running back.
Darlington is the owner of MyStartEmSitEm.com and has been an owner, commissioner and consultant in Fantasy Football since 1992. MyStartEmSitEm.com provides weekly advice based on your league, your scoring system, with custom emails about your team, preseason cheat sheets, draft day assistance and much more.
Rookies generally get overrated at this time of year and that's certainly been the case thus far with San Francisco's Michael Crabtree. He's not a burner by any means, he played in a specialty offense in college, and he's headed to a team that could lead the league in rushing attempts. Shaun Hill is a nice game manager but he's not a star-making quarterback. It's going to take a while for Crabtree to get his sea legs, and he'll probably disappoint fantasy owners in 2009.
Scott Pianowski has been playing fantasy football for 15 years and writing about it for 12. He joined Yahoo! Sports in 2008 and has been blogging 24/7 on RotoArcade.com ever since.
There are lots of candidates, but the one that leaps out at me is Knowshon Moreno. I fully understand the appeal of rookie runners, but I don't think the Broncos signed Correll Buckhalter and LaMont Jordan to have them standing on the sidelines all game. Granted that was before drafting Moreno, but regardless: Josh McDaniels' New England offenses used a committee at running back, and in 2009, I expect the Broncos do the same. I simply can't see drafting Moreno as a top-15 running back (which is about where I've been seeing him selected) -- there are far better options available at that point.
Richardson has been a columnist and contributor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and web site for the past eight years. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections, as well as various site features. He has run the magazine's annual draft and auction leagues since their inception. His A DAY OF FOOTBALL wrap-up column appears Mondays during the NFL season.
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