Ask the Experts
Posted Aug. 05 at 08:42 PM
ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them:
Do minor preseason injuries lead you to avoid specific players, or target them at value prices?
It really depends on the type of injury and in some cases the player. Even if they are an “Iron man” and play through the injury, there will be some degradation. There is a clear relationship between a player’s age and his injuries. As he ages he gets more injuries and his ability to recover from those injuries decreases. Likewise, if a player was previously injured, his chances of playing a full 16-game season are less than a player who has never been hurt. Bottom line in my mind, if a player has been hurt before, chances are he will be hurt again. But this does not mean I pass on them, I just move them down my cheat sheet; if I can get them later then I will jump on their value.
Sam Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Almanac 2009, all available at his website, www.ffguidebook.com, at all major bookstores, and at www.amazon.com. He is a 19-year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF), National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th overall in the 2008 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).
Early in preseason teams are very cautious with players so "injuries" early on don't cause much concern. As we get about halfway through preseason injuries that keep players out of practice start become more worrisome - at that point, YES you must decrease the value of players who may have injury concerns when the season begins.
Endsley is co-owner and a senior fantasy football consultant for FantasyDraftEdge.com offering customizable fantasy football cheat sheets and professional VIP advice all season long. For more info, go to www.fantasydraftedge.com.
I would say for the majority of players, minor pre-season injuries do not effect my value of those players. The only players I rank lower of take notice are players that are known for getting hurt every year (e.g. Reggie Bush or Brian Westbrook). When players that seem to get hurt every year are having a nagging or minor injuries again (even in pre-season) and they are missing time, I will drop them a few spots. Outside of that, it’s probably just veterans getting some well needed time off before the season starts!
Darlington is the owner of MyStartEmSitEm.com and has been an owner, commissioner and consultant in Fantasy Football since 1992. MyStartEmSitEm.com provides weekly advice based on your league, your scoring system, with custom emails about your team, preseason cheat sheets, draft day assistance and much more.
It totally depends on the circumstances. There are players like Brian Westbrook, who underwent two offseason surgeries (knee, ankle) that make me very nervous. I have avoided him in all of my drafts, and wouldn’t consider selecting him unless he becomes a great value. Then there are guys like Braylon Edwards, who have been nursing an ankle sprain since spring practices. He either has a high ankle sprain, or he’s a wimp because a normal ankle sprain has had plenty of time to heel. Regardless, I would probably still take a chance on Edwards, who has a reasonable ADP (46, 4.11, WR19) in 12-team leagues. And finally, the players with the run-of-the-mill camp injuries don’t bother me. I will track them closely to see if the ailment becomes a chronic situation, but for the most part - if you cross off the guys with minor camp injuries off your cheat sheets - then you don’t have anyone left to draft.
Hawes is the Managing Editor of NFL content at Fanball.com. Fanball.com and OwnersEdge.com offer league management software, daily play fantasy games, Live Advice, up-to-date news, free and premium content, player rankings, custom projections and cheat sheets, in-depth IDP analysis, Fantasy Buffet Radio Show, NFL Draft Kit, Fanball Blog Network, daily newsletter, a vast array of fantasy football tools, including Draft Analyzer software and five magazines featuring the Pro Football Draft Preview, as well as four Fantasy Football publications. For more information send e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.org.
For the most part, minor injuries should be overlooked, but it depends upon the player's injury history and whether injuries tend to linger or go away quickly. And if a player like RB Reggie Bush is coming off a serious injury and had off-season surgery, then I'd be wary of things like swelling. Bottom Line: A sprained ankle shouldn't be a major worry, unless it's something that lingers for weeks throughout August.
Nazarek is the CEO of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. His company offers an online rookie draft kit, preseason draft guide, customizable cheat sheets, fantasy auction & regular drafting programs, weekly in-season fantasy newsletters, injury reports and free NFL news (updated daily) at its web site. He has been playing fantasy football since 1988 and is the reigning four-peat champion of the SI.com Experts Fantasy League, a nationally published writer in several fantasy magazines and a columnist for SI.com. For more info go to www.ffmastermind.com. Nazarek can be reached at 702-568-7118 or email@example.com.
There's not a hard-and-fast rule. There are no absolutes. You really have to take the player, the injury, and the timing of the injury into account when making these decisions. When it comes to guys like Willis McGahee and Javon Walker returning from offseason knee surgery, yes, both of those guys are off our list because they have a history of such injuries and a reputation for not being able to play through them. If it's Randy Moss nursing a strained hammy, it might discourage me from drafting him, but you get a feel for when guys are getting the star treatment and when it's actually a legitimate injury that you should be concerned with.
Heck is a founding partner at Dynasty Rogues, a fantasy football website filled with football enthusiasts, run by football enthusiasts. The company provides year-round dynasty and redraft fantasy football coverage and analysis, including Dynasty Rogues Radio and the Rogues Forum. The site can be reached at www.dynastyrogues.com.
To me, a relative minor and probably meaningless injury can send a player down a good ways. There’s very little difference between these players, so when there’s an injury or similar concern, I decrease that player’s projection by a little bit to account for that added risk. That invariably moves him down by a good chunk. Brandon Marshall, Brian Westbrook and Reggie Bush fit this profile. They’ll likely be fine. But with the added risk, those guys move down on my board — when in doubt, take a similar player without the baggage.
Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index. He’s been in that role since 1987, generating most of the player rankings and analysis for that publication. His work can be seen in Fantasy Football Index magazine, and also at the company’s website, www.fantasyindex.com.
I don't mind minor injuries, and hope league mates DO mind. As some NFL expert analysts put it..it can be a "medical advantage" applied to fantasy football. a Guy like Beanie Wells in 2009 is already a great example of someone dropping because he's been nicked. Players immediately assume he's injury prone and drop him down the board, making him a very nice value on draft day.
Tranquilli is the founder and the primary "brains" (if you stretch it) of BFDFANTASYfootball.com. BFD is about delivering the information players want, not fluff, just opinions that matter to fantasy football players. Lou has worked with NFL players and gives a unique perspective because of it. We'll be giving MORE teams away in 2009 to BFD subscribers!
The short, obvious answer: It depends. Many factors affect an injured player's draft stock: the nature and severity of the injury, the player's age and injury history, and the quality of the player's backups or rivals for time. For instance, at an early training camp practice, the Arizona Cardinals' Chris Wells was carted off the field for what turned out to be a minor ankle sprain. The news hasn't appeared to affect his draft stock one bit; Tim Hightower (2.8 yards per carry) isn't exactly stiff competition, right? However, the incident should have served as a reminder: Beanie is a risky choice; ankle injuries plagued him at Ohio State. He played most of 2007 with a mild ankle problem and missed three games in 2008. Each case is unique. Don't assume all "minor" injuries aren't reason for concern.
KFFL.com offers fantasy football, fantasy baseball and fantasy NASCAR content. We have captured well more than a dozen expert league championships. Founded in 1996, KFFL offers award-winning daily news feeds, preseason draft guides, player rankings, sleepers, busts, weekly newsletters and more. KFFL is completely free! For more information, visit www.kffl.com.
Depends on the injury really, if a guy gets a big time hamstring injury, we may lower the value and take away 3-4 games as some of those hammy injuries can take months to heal. The hardest part is really knowing how serious the injury is and with many vets seeing little to no pt in the pre-season, that could be hard to gauge.
Kamys is president of Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports. His company, via the web, offers player news, injury reports, cheat sheets, projections, weekly matchups, statistics, and a customized team tracker. Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports also e-mails preseason newsletters and reports throughout the season. For more info visit www.docstats.com or send email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
This question is not nearly as cut and dried as it seems. It really depends on the player and the nature of the injury. For example, an elbow injury on the non-throwing arm of a quarterback would not change where I was projecting that player. Nor would a tweaked hamstring of a non mobile QB like Kurt Warner. That same injury might make me think twice about a wide receiver though. The second thing you have to take into consideration is the history of that player. If the minor injury is affecting an area that they recently had surgery on, it might be cause for concern. If the player has a history of missing time for nagging problems like toes or hammies it is definitely a cause for concern. But there are also players whose injury status will never be a concern. For example, Brian Westbrook is always nicked up, but he continues to show up. If you were to change his draft projection based on minor injuries, no one would ever draft him. It really is a case by case thing.
The May brothers have more than 16 years of combined fantasy football experience and are the co-founders of FantasyDraftMaster.com. The cornerstone of FDM is the UberRank which is a revolutionary approach to the traditional fantasy football cheat sheet. FantasyDraftMaster.com also offers insightful and humorous commentary on football happenings as well as recommendations on waiver wire pickups, line up submissions and weekly pick em' pools. For more info, visit www.fantasydraftmaster.com or email us at email@example.com.
If it's a minor injury, I really do see it as opportunity to get a player at a bargain-basement price. Sometimes owners will take a player off their draft board who has a hamstring problem, but to me when it's a proven commodity, I'm thinking the team is probably treating them with kid gloves and he'll be out there when he needs to be. Now, if it's a rookie or unproven guy who's sidelined with an injury, then I do tend to think that this guy's going to fall behind and his chances of making an impact are lessened.
Richardson has been a columnist and contributor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and web site for the past eight years. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections, as well as various site features. He has run the magazine's annual draft and auction leagues since their inception. His A DAY OF FOOTBALL wrap-up column appears Mondays during the NFL season.
Posted by Jackson Longan | Aug. 09 at 11:51 PM
Let's keep this short and sweet. I can keep two of the following players: T. Brady, L. Fitz, S. Jax, Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton. Standard scoring with no PPR. I am leaning towards L. Fitz and Slaton.
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