Fantasy News
There’s still a week before the season begins, so let me alter slightly my opinions on strength of schedule. Previously, I identify the three competitive teams in the NFC North as the most likely to benefit from easy schedules – Green Bay, Minnesota and Chicago. And Baltimore and Pittsburgh were the two others.
But let me alter that – at least a little.
For the strength of schedule numbers below, I didn’t use the combined 2008 win-loss records of opponents. Instead, I assigned a win-loss record to each team, based on how strong that team appears to be. The Titans, for example, went 13-3 last year, but that’s clearly not a 13-3 team. I moved them down to 10-6, and that’s the number I then plugged into the strength of schedule adding machine.
I did this for all 32 teams. (At the bottom of this page, you’ll find the win-loss records I used for each team).
According to these strength of schedule numbers, five new teams join the strength of schedule party. Arizona is the new No. 1. Gets six games against the soft underbelly of the NFC West. And San Diego, with a similar arrangement in the AFC West, shows up at No. 3. Seattle, Houston and Jacksonville also project to be helped by scheduling.
The Bucs, Panthers and Dolphins, meanwhile, project to be the teams most hurt by scheduling. Previously, the Patriots and Falcons were also in that group, but they’ve moved towards the middle of the pact.
While I will admit that there’s a home-brewed quality to the numbers below – they’re a mixture of fact and opinion – I believe they are more useful than the typical strength of schedule numbers you see.
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WEEKS 1-17
(Based not on team’s 2008 win-loss records, but on our projections of how each team would do if it played an average schedule in 2009).
W L Pct.
117 139 .457 Arizona
118 138 .461 Green Bay
118 138 .461 San Diego
119 137 .465 Seattle
120 136 .469 Houston
120 136 .469 Jacksonville
121 135 .473 Pittsburgh
122 134 .477 Indianapolis
122 134 .477 Washington
123 133 .480 Oakland
124 132 .484 Minnesota
124 132 .484 San Francisco
125 131 .488 Kansas City
126 130 .492 St. Louis
127 129 .496 Baltimore
127 129 .496 New England
127 129 .496 New Orleans
128 128 .500 Philadelphia
128 128 .500 Tennessee
130 126 .508 Cincinnati
131 125 .512 Buffalo
131 125 .512 Chicago
132 124 .516 Cleveland
132 124 .516 Dallas
132 124 .516 Denver
132 124 .516 NY Giants
133 123 .520 Atlanta
135 121 .527 NY Jets
141 115 .551 Detroit
141 115 .551 Miami
143 113 .559 Carolina
147 109 .574 Tampa Bay
STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE, WEEKS 1-16
(Based not on team’s 2008 win-loss records, but on our projections of how each team would do if it played an average schedule in 2009). This version is the same as what appears above, but the week 17 games – meaningless in most fantasy leagues – are not included.
W L Pct.
105 135 .438 Arizona
107 133 .446 Houston
109 131 .454 Green Bay
109 131 .454 Seattle
110 130 .458 San Diego
111 129 .463 Oakland
112 128 .467 Pittsburgh
112 128 .467 Washington
113 127 .471 Minnesota
116 124 .483 Indianapolis
116 124 .483 Jacksonville
118 122 .492 New Orleans
119 121 .496 New England
119 121 .496 Philadelphia
120 120 .500 Kansas City
120 120 .500 NY Giants
120 120 .500 St. Louis
121 119 .504 Buffalo
121 119 .504 San Francisco
122 118 .508 Baltimore
122 118 .508 Dallas
123 117 .513 Tennessee
124 116 .517 Cincinnati
126 114 .525 Cleveland
128 112 .533 Atlanta
128 112 .533 Miami
129 111 .538 Chicago
129 111 .538 Denver
129 111 .538 NY Jets
132 108 .550 Detroit
134 106 .558 Carolina
136 104 .567 Tampa Bay
SUPPORTING DATA
For the charts above, we used the following figures for each team. These are win-loss records that we would expect from the teams if they played typical schedules. (The Patriots and Steelers, at 13-3, appear to be the strongest teams in the league. The Packers and Vikings, at 12-4, seem to be the best in the NFC).
W L Pct.
13 3 .813 New England
13 3 .813 Pittsburgh
12 4 .750 Green Bay
12 4 .750 Minnesota
12 4 .750 Baltimore
11 5 .688 Atlanta
11 5 .688 NY Giants
10 6 .625 Philadelphia
10 6 .625 Indianapolis
10 6 .625 San Diego
10 6 .625 Tennessee
9 7 .563 Miami
9 7 .563 New Orleans
9 7 .563 Chicago
9 7 .563 Carolina
9 7 .563 Arizona
9 7 .563 Dallas
8 8 .500 Washington
8 8 .500 Houston
6 10 .375 San Francisco
6 10 .375 Cincinnati
6 10 .375 NY Jets
6 10 .375 Jacksonville
6 10 .375 Buffalo
5 11 .313 Denver
5 11 .313 Tampa Bay
5 11 .313 Oakland
5 11 .313 Seattle
4 12 .250 Cleveland
3 13 .188 Kansas City
3 13 .188 St. Louis
2 14 .125 Detroit
—Ian Allan
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Posted by BARRY BROWN | Sep. 02 at 03:54 AM
Excellent. Thanks.
Posted by Don Goss | Sep. 02 at 12:20 PM
Looks like Chicago is significantly hurt by these numbers. If I remember correctly the Bears were projected to play the easiest schedule based on last year's win-loss records. Now they're towards the bottom. Would you downgrade guys like Jay Cutler and Greg Olsen?