Ian Allan
Below are my updated win totals for each team, based on making a prediction (or semi-prediction) for each game.
For each of the games on the schedule, I’ve assigned a portion of that win to each team. If it’s a 50-50 type game (like the Jets and Dolphins on Monday night), I might give each team half of a win. If it’s a blowout-type game (like Tampa Bay at Philadelphia), then I give essentially all of the victory to the team I feel will win (and I’m going with the Eagles in that game).
Following that process for every team and every game, I have the Saints and Colts finishing with the top seeds in the playoffs. New England should be the other team getting a bye in the AFC, while the Giants and Vikings (at least according to my board) could go to a week 17 game between those teams.
AFC Playoff picture: Colts and Patriots get byes. Ravens and Broncos make playoffs. Jets and Steelers are the wild cards. The Bengals and Chargers project to be the best teams that will miss the playoffs.
NFC Playoff picture:Saints and Giants get byes. Vikings and 49ers also win their division. Eagles and Packers are the wild cards. The Bears and Cowboys project to win 9-plus games but miss the playoffs.
Let me know where you think I’ve gone wrong.
PROJECTED WINS FOR EACH TEAM
Wins
13.1 New Orleans
12.3 Indianapolis
12.2 NY Giants
12.2 Minnesota
11.8 New England
11.2 NY Jets
11.1 Baltimore
10.6 Philadelphia
10.4 Pittsburgh
10.0 Green Bay
9.8 San Francisco
9.7 Chicago
9.6 Dallas
9.6 Cincinnati
9.5 Denver
9.5 Atlanta
9.0 San Diego
7.7 Jacksonville
7.4 Arizona
7.0 Seattle
6.6 Houston
6.4 Tennessee
5.9 Buffalo
5.4 Carolina
5.4 Miami
5.0 Washington
3.9 Kansas City
3.7 Detroit
3.7 Oakland
3.4 Cleveland
2.2 St. Louis
1.3 Tampa Bay
Arizona
loss San Francisco (H)
win Jacksonville (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
bye
60% Houston (H)
35% Seattle (A)
10% NY Giants (A)
67% Carolina (H)
30% Chicago (A)
75% Seattle (H)
75% St. Louis (A)
40% Tennessee (A)
25% Minnesota (H)
25% San Francisco (A)
65% Detroit (A)
90% St. Louis (H)
40% Green Bay (H)
Atlanta
win Miami (H)
win Carolina (H)
loss New England (A)
bye
45% San Francisco (A)
65% Chicago (H)
40% Dallas (A)
30% New Orleans (A)
90% Washington (H)
60% Carolina (A)
25% NY Giants (A)
95% Tampa Bay (H)
50% Philadelphia (H)
55% New Orleans (H)
30% NY Jets (A)
75% Buffalo (H)
85% Tampa Bay (A)
Baltimore
win Kansas City (H)
win San Diego (A)
win Cleveland (H)
loss New England (A)
70% Cincinnati (H)
40% Minnesota (A)
bye
80% Denver (H)
55% Cincinnati (A)
85% Cleveland (A)
60% Indianapolis (H)
70% Pittsburgh (H)
45% Green Bay (A)
96% Detroit (H)
75% Chicago (H)
40% Pittsburgh (A)
90% Oakland (A)
Buffalo
loss New England (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss New Orleans (H)
loss Miami (A)
60% Cleveland (H)
20% NY Jets (A)
35% Carolina (A)
60% Houston (H)
bye
30% Tennessee (A)
35% Jacksonville (A)
60% Miami (H)
45% NY Jets (H)
50% Kansas City (A)
35% New England (H)
25% Atlanta (A)
35% Indianapolis (H)
Carolina
loss Philadelphia (H)
loss Atlanta (A)
loss Dallas (A)
bye
75% Washington (H)
75% Tampa Bay (A)
65% Buffalo (H)
33% Arizona (A)
20% New Orleans (A)
40% Atlanta (H)
60% Miami (H)
20% NY Jets (A)
90% Tampa Bay (H)
5% New England (A)
20% Minnesota (H)
10% NY Giants (A)
25% New Orleans (H)
Chicago
loss Green Bay (A)
win Pittsburgh (H)
win Seattle (A)
win Detroit (H)
bye
35% Atlanta (A)
45% Cincinnati (A)
90% Cleveland (H)
70% Arizona (H)
45% San Francisco (A)
50% Philadelphia (H)
30% Minnesota (A)
95% St. Louis (H)
55% Green Bay (H)
25% Baltimore (A)
55% Minnesota (H)
75% Detroit (A)
Cincinnati
loss Denver (H)
win Green Bay (A)
win Pittsburgh (H)
win Cleveland (A)
30% Baltimore (A)
75% Houston (H)
55% Chicago (H)
bye
45% Baltimore (H)
35% Pittsburgh (A)
60% Oakland (A)
85% Cleveland (H)
90% Detroit (H)
30% Minnesota (A)
40% San Diego (A)
85% Kansas City (H)
30% NY Jets (A)
Cleveland
loss Minnesota (H)
loss Denver (A)
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Cincinnati (H)
40% Buffalo (A)
5% Pittsburgh (A)
20% Green Bay (H)
10% Chicago (A)
bye
15% Baltimore (H)
40% Detroit (A)
15% Cincinnati (A)
30% San Diego (H)
25% Pittsburgh (H)
30% Kansas City (A)
65% Oakland (H)
40% Jacksonville (H)
Dallas
win Tampa Bay (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
win Carolina (H)
loss Denver (A)
80% Kansas City (A)
bye
60% Atlanta (H)
90% Seattle (H)
33% Philadelphia (A)
40% Green Bay (A)
90% Washington (H)
95% Oakland (H)
33% NY Giants (A)
75% San Diego (H)
30% New Orleans (A)
70% Washington (A)
65% Philadelphia (H)
Denver
win Cincinnati (A)
win Cleveland (H)
win Oakland (A)
win Dallas (H)
35% New England (H)
40% San Diego (A)
bye
20% Baltimore (A)
40% Pittsburgh (H)
65% Washington (A)
55% San Diego (H)
35% NY Giants (H)
75% Kansas City (A)
20% Indianapolis (A)
75% Oakland (H)
15% Philadelphia (A)
75% Kansas City (H)
Detroit
loss New Orleans (A)
loss Minnesota (H)
win Washington (H)
loss Chicago (A)
15% Pittsburgh (H)
10% Green Bay (A)
bye
65% St. Louis (H)
10% Seattle (A)
5% Minnesota (A)
60% Cleveland (H)
20% Green Bay (H)
10% Cincinnati (A)
4% Baltimore (A)
35% Arizona (H)
10% San Francisco (A)
25% Chicago (H)
Green Bay
win Chicago (H)
loss Cincinnati (H)
win St. Louis (A)
loss Minnesota (A)
bye
90% Detroit (H)
80% Cleveland (A)
55% Minnesota (H)
85% Tampa Bay (A)
60% Dallas (H)
70% San Francisco (H)
80% Detroit (A)
55% Baltimore (H)
45% Chicago (A)
35% Pittsburgh (A)
85% Seattle (H)
60% Arizona (A)
Houston
loss NY Jets (H)
win Tennessee (A)
loss Jacksonville (H)
win Oakland (H)
40% Arizona (A)
25% Cincinnati (A)
35% San Francisco (H)
40% Buffalo (A)
10% Indianapolis (A)
bye
55% Tennessee (H)
30% Indianapolis (H)
35% Jacksonville (A)
60% Seattle (H)
60% St. Louis (A)
40% Miami (A)
25% New England (H)
Indianapolis
win Jacksonville (H)
win Miami (A)
win Arizona (A)
win Seattle (H)
60% Tennessee (A)
bye
90% St. Louis (A)
70% San Francisco (H)
90% Houston (H)
60% New England (H)
40% Baltimore (A)
70% Houston (A)
75% Tennessee (H)
80% Denver (H)
60% Jacksonville (A)
67% NY Jets (H)
65% Buffalo (A)
Jacksonville
loss Indianapolis (A)
loss Arizona (H)
win Houston (A)
win Tennessee (H)
35% Seattle (A)
85% St. Louis (H)
bye
30% Tennessee (A)
75% Kansas City (H)
15% NY Jets (A)
65% Buffalo (H)
25% San Francisco (A)
65% Houston (H)
65% Miami (H)
40% Indianapolis (H)
10% New England (A)
60% Cleveland (A)
Kansas City
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Oakland (H)
loss Philadelphia (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
20% Dallas (H)
35% Washington (A)
35% San Diego (H)
bye
25% Jacksonville (A)
45% Oakland (A)
20% Pittsburgh (H)
20% San Diego (A)
25% Denver (H)
50% Buffalo (H)
70% Cleveland (H)
15% Cincinnati (A)
25% Denver (A)
Miami
loss Atlanta (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
loss San Diego (A)
win Buffalo (H)
52% NY Jets (H)
bye
15% New Orleans (H)
20% NY Jets (A)
10% New England (A)
85% Tampa Bay (H)
40% Carolina (A)
40% Buffalo (A)
25% New England (H)
35% Jacksonville (A)
20% Tennessee (A)
60% Houston (H)
35% Pittsburgh (H)
Minnesota
win Cleveland (A)
win Detroit (A)
win San Francisco (H)
win Green Bay (H)
90% St. Louis (A)
60% Baltimore (H)
40% Pittsburgh (A)
45% Green Bay (A)
bye
95% Detroit (H)
90% Seattle (H)
70% Chicago (H)
75% Arizona (A)
70% Cincinnati (H)
80% Carolina (A)
45% Chicago (A)
60% NY Giants (H)
New England
win Buffalo (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
win Atlanta (H)
win Baltimore (H)
65% Denver (A)
85% Tennessee (H)
90% Tampa Bay (A)
bye
90% Miami (H)
40% Indianapolis (A)
70% NY Jets (H)
40% New Orleans (A)
75% Miami (A)
95% Carolina (H)
65% Buffalo (A)
90% Jacksonville (H)
75% Houston (A)
New Orleans
win Detroit (H)
win Philadelphia (A)
win Buffalo (A)
win NY Jets (H)
bye
60% NY Giants (H)
85% Miami (A)
70% Atlanta (H)
80% Carolina (H)
95% St. Louis (A)
90% Tampa Bay (A)
60% New England (H)
85% Washington (A)
45% Atlanta (A)
70% Dallas (H)
96% Tampa Bay (H)
75% Carolina (A)
NY Giants
win Washington (H)
win Dallas (A)
win Tampa Bay (A)
win Kansas City (A)
96% Oakland (H)
40% New Orleans (A)
90% Arizona (H)
40% Philadelphia (A)
75% San Diego (H)
bye
75% Atlanta (H)
65% Denver (A)
67% Dallas (H)
65% Philadelphia (H)
80% Washington (A)
90% Carolina (H)
40% Minnesota (A)
NY Jets
win Houston (A)
win New England (H)
win Tennessee (H)
loss New Orleans (A)
48% Miami (A)
80% Buffalo (H)
90% Oakland (A)
80% Miami (H)
bye
85% Jacksonville (H)
30% New England (A)
80% Carolina (H)
55% Buffalo (A)
95% Tampa Bay (A)
70% Atlanta (H)
33% Indianapolis (A)
70% Cincinnati (H)
Oakland
loss San Diego (H)
win Kansas City (A)
loss Denver (H)
loss Houston (A)
4% NY Giants (A)
10% Philadelphia (H)
10% NY Jets (H)
10% San Diego (A)
bye
55% Kansas City (H)
40% Cincinnati (H)
5% Dallas (A)
5% Pittsburgh (A)
60% Washington (H)
25% Denver (A)
35% Cleveland (A)
10% Baltimore (H)
Philadelphia
win Carolina (A)
loss New Orleans (H)
win Kansas City (H)
bye
96% Tampa Bay (H)
90% Oakland (A)
75% Washington (A)
60% NY Giants (H)
67% Dallas (H)
55% San Diego (A)
50% Chicago (A)
90% Washington (H)
50% Atlanta (A)
35% NY Giants (A)
75% San Francisco (H)
85% Denver (H)
35% Dallas (A)
Pittsburgh
win Tennessee (H)
loss Chicago (A)
loss Cincinnati (A)
win San Diego (H)
85% Detroit (A)
95% Cleveland (H)
60% Minnesota (H)
bye
60% Denver (A)
65% Cincinnati (H)
80% Kansas City (A)
30% Baltimore (A)
95% Oakland (H)
75% Cleveland (A)
65% Green Bay (H)
60% Baltimore (H)
65% Miami (A)
San Diego
win Oakland (A)
loss Baltimore (H)
win Miami (H)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
bye
60% Denver (H)
65% Kansas City (A)
90% Oakland (H)
25% NY Giants (A)
45% Philadelphia (H)
45% Denver (A)
80% Kansas City (H)
70% Cleveland (A)
25% Dallas (A)
60% Cincinnati (H)
40% Tennessee (A)
90% Washington (H)
San Francisco
win Arizona (A)
win Seattle (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
win St. Louis (H)
55% Atlanta (H)
bye
65% Houston (A)
30% Indianapolis (A)
55% Tennessee (H)
55% Chicago (H)
30% Green Bay (A)
75% Jacksonville (H)
40% Seattle (A)
75% Arizona (H)
25% Philadelphia (A)
90% Detroit (H)
85% St. Louis (A)
Seattle
win St. Louis (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
loss Chicago (H)
loss Indianapolis (A)
65% Jacksonville (H)
65% Arizona (H)
bye
10% Dallas (A)
90% Detroit (H)
25% Arizona (A)
10% Minnesota (A)
65% St. Louis (A)
60% San Francisco (H)
40% Houston (A)
93% Tampa Bay (H)
15% Green Bay (A)
60% Tennessee (H)
St. Louis
loss Seattle (A)
loss Washington (A)
loss Green Bay (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
10% Minnesota (H)
15% Jacksonville (A)
10% Indianapolis (H)
35% Detroit (A)
bye
5% New Orleans (H)
25% Arizona (H)
35% Seattle (H)
5% Chicago (A)
15% Tennessee (A)
40% Houston (H)
10% Arizona (A)
15% San Francisco (H)
Tampa Bay
loss Dallas (H)
loss Buffalo (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
loss Washington (A)
4% Philadelphia (A)
25% Carolina (H)
10% New England (H)
bye
15% Green Bay (H)
15% Miami (A)
10% New Orleans (H)
5% Atlanta (A)
10% Carolina (A)
5% NY Jets (H)
7% Seattle (A)
4% New Orleans (A)
15% Atlanta (H)
Tennessee
loss Pittsburgh (A)
loss Houston (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
loss Jacksonville (A)
40% Indianapolis (H)
15% New England (A)
bye
70% Jacksonville (H)
45% San Francisco (A)
70% Buffalo (H)
45% Houston (A)
60% Arizona (H)
25% Indianapolis (A)
85% St. Louis (H)
80% Miami (H)
60% San Diego (H)
40% Seattle (A)
Washington
loss NY Giants (A)
win St. Louis (H)
loss Detroit (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
25% Carolina (A)
65% Kansas City (H)
25% Philadelphia (H)
bye
10% Atlanta (A)
35% Denver (H)
10% Dallas (A)
10% Philadelphia (A)
15% New Orleans (H)
40% Oakland (A)
20% NY Giants (H)
30% Dallas (H)
10% San Diego (A)
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