Ask the Experts
Posted Nov. 08 at 02:54 AM
ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly, with answers to a new question being posted every Thursday morning.
How the guest experts responded when we asked them:
Will Adrian Peterson be the number 1 overall pick next season?
After his 296 yard performance, Adrian Peterson is a lock to be a top-5 running back, but there is still half a season left to play with plenty left that could happen. But Peterson is already on a pace that would result in a 2,000-yard season and just gets better every week. The biggest consideration to where Peterson is drafted next summer won’t so much be about him but about the team around him and the schedule he will face. But he is as exciting and complete a tailback as any rookie I have ever seen.
Dorey is the co-founder of TheHuddle.com and the lead NFL analyst. He has been projecting players and predicting games since 1997 and has also authored the book Fantasy Football: The Next Level which is available at all major bookstores and at Amazon.com. Dorey is one of the top prognosticators in the Fantasy Football Index Experts Poll every year and won it in 2005.
Brad Childress couldn't pick the right starter two months ago, but fantasy owners won't drop the ball -- Peterson will be the consensus No. 1 pick next year. Let's just keep him off the magazine covers and away from the Madden game (I say that tongue-in-cheek - I don't think any jinx is big enough to corral this stud).
Pianowski is a free-lance journalist who's been writing about sports (fantasy and otherwise) for a variety of websites, newspapers and magazines for the last 20 years. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
I think LT and Addai will probably go before Peterson in most leagues, but Peterson will definitely be one of the top 5 picks taken next year. The Vikings are still fairly one-dimensional on offense with no passing attack and they still lack a proven QB, so in our eyes his value is more suspect. Another problem long-term with Peterson is that since the Vikes have no other weapons, they are going to be prone to over-using him, so wear and tear and injuries are going to become more likely.
Kamys is president of Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports. His company, via the web, offers player news, injury reports, cheat sheets, projections, weekly matchups, statistics, and a customized team tracker. Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports also e-mails preseason newsletters and reports throughout the season. For more info visit www.docstats.com or send e-mail to email@example.com.
AP is having incredible season and will be top 3 pick for sure in 2008, but knocking LT from the No. 1 spot is a little unrealistic. AP still plays for the Vikings and unless they do something to improve their offense at QB, WR and TE teams will put 8-9 guys in the box to stop Peterson. LT is still the man and will be at the start of next season because his supporting cast is so much better in Rivers, Chambers and Gates. The one advantage Peterson has is he is working with one of the top 5 offensive lines in football which will be intact for a few years. AP is going to be a No. 1 fantasy pick in the near future but will take a few years to knock King LT from the top spot.
Swaw is senior writer and owner of GameTimeDecisions.net and the co-host of two fantasy football radio shows for ESPN AM 1000 in Chicago -- Fantasy Football Island and Fantasy Expert. He has been a keynote speaker for the FSTA and several fantasy football conventions with the likes of John Clayton, Chris Mortensen, Sean Salisbury and Mark Schlereth. For more info, visit www.gametimedecisions.net.
He is close. Joseph Addai has been awesome and is on a more complete, higher scoring team. San Diego will be better next year and Tomlinson should still be considered No. 1. Even Larry Johnson, with some nifty, KC off-season moves, could still be considered. Minnesota has the best O-line, a stout, young defense, and a smart, talented coach; but, there is a gaping hole at quarterback and another rookie will not make up for the damage this does to what Peterson could actually do. Look for him to be No. 1 in 2009.
I think he will be. He’s awfully explosive. They just keep feeding him the ball, and it seems like only a matter of time before he’s going to break a 40-plus yard run. That was an awfully good San Diego run defense that he gouged for 296 yards on Sunday.
Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index magazine. He’s also one of the main content contributors for that company’s website, www.fantasyindex.com. His IAN ALLAN’S MAILBAG column is posted on Fridays.
If I were gambling, I’d bet no. Simply because too many, way too many things can happen. Injury, changes to the line in Minnesota, another RB emerging, or re-emerging. Plus there is little doubt he’ll be even more a focus for defenses the Vikings face from now on. No question he’ll be moving up, but No. 1 ? We’d be hard pressed to put a 2nd year RB (Sophomore Slump?) as the No. 1 overall pick.
Endsley is co-owner and a senior fantasy football consultant for FantasyDraftEdge.com. For more info, go to www.fantasydraftedge.com.
Not yet. RB LaDainian Tomlinson remains the top dog, but Peterson's performance to date surely has been impressive, and will likely draw top-5 consideration from fantasy owners in 2008 should his success continue in 2007.
Nazarek is the CEO of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. His company offers an online rookie draft kit, preseason draft guide, customizable cheat sheets, a fantasy auction drafting program, weekly in-season fantasy newsletters, injury reports and free NFL news (updated daily) at its web site. He is the reigning three-peat champion of the SI.com Experts Fantasy League. He is also a nationally published writer in several fantasy magazines and a columnist for SI.com. For more info go to http://www.ffmastermind.com. Nazarek can be reached at 702-568-7118 or firstname.lastname@example.org.
CORY J. BONINI
Whether Peterson is the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy leagues next year largely hinges upon how he finishes this season. Peterson isn't used to the rigors of a 16-game schedule, and he is no stranger to the injury bug. While he is running like a man on a mission right now, the proverbial "rookie wall" could be around the corner, especially if he continues to take shots from defenders. His running style is not conducive to longevity, but he has a legitimate shot at being the No. 1 overall pick next year. If San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson can turn around his season in the second half, he could easily be the No. 1 pick, so the answer here is: Stay tuned!
KFFL offers football as well as baseball content and has captured over a dozen expert league championships. Founded in 1996, this company offers daily news, preseason draft guides, player rankings, sleepers, busts, weekly newsletters and more. KFFL also provides fantasy content to various organizations including SportsTicker and Yahoo! Sports. For more information, visit www.kffl.com .
I think everyone expected Peterson to have a pretty solid rookie year - but this good? Don't think too many people expected him to break the single game rushing record against a pretty good defense in San Diego. I like Peterson's long-term value in the league, but I think Tomlinson is still the No. 1 pick in fantasy drafts next season. Tomlinson is not having the best start to the season, but assuming he is able to pickup the pace that made him the top pick in the 2006 and 2007 drafts, he'll be back at the top of the draft charts. Additionally, with the way the bust picks have panned out at running back this season, I wouldn't be surprised to see two quarterbacks -- Brady and Manning -- get serious consideration for a top spot. Of course, if Peterson keeps up this pace the rest of the way, he'll be the No. 1 guy.
I think so. Barring injury or dramatic offseason developments, Peterson will be the top pick next year based on upside. Maybe LaDainian Tomlinson or Joseph Addai will be viewed as safer picks -- playing in better offenses on better all-around teams -- but I think the thought that Tomlinson's best years might be behind him while Peterson's are yet to come will help him there, and Addai will be viewed as always a candidate to either lose carries to another runner or TDs to Peyton Manning. Whereas Peterson is probably going to rush for 2000 yards despite having his work limited early and despite having the most dismal situation imaginable at quarterback. I mean, the Vikings couldn't have a less dangerous passing game if they recruited people out of the stands. I expect Peterson to go first in most of my leagues, and I would be one of the people who would take him.
Richardson has been a columnist and contributor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and web site for the past six years. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections, as well as various site features. He has run the magazine's annual draft and auction leagues since their inception. Other writing credits have included FFToday.com and football coverage for newspapers in Colorado and Florida. For more information go to www.fantasyindex.com.
Posted by BRYAN BERTSCH | Nov. 07 at 11:48 PM
I just don't understand how we can jump so fast here. I mean, it isn't even a given that he'll take over for Cedric Benson yet.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Nov. 08 at 01:23 AM
Originally I specified "Minnesota's Adrian Peterson." Then I changed it to try to get it to break right on the web page. (Still didn't work.) Should have known there'd be some funny guy out there.....
Posted by John Evans | Nov. 08 at 05:57 AM
Not a given that he will be taken over Benson? Are you serious? You can't be serious. Benson doesn't deserve to be a starting RB on any team in the NFL. Benson will probably not reach the number of yards for the entire season that Peterson has put up through HALF THE SEASON. Please think before you say something so ignorant. Peterson will NOT be the first overall selection next year. The truth is that he has not outproduced Tomlinson by much this season, and Tomlinson has UNDERACHIEVED this season. That says something. If Tomlinson gets back to being Tomlinson, then he outproduces Peterson. LT has never been hurt throughout his career and he catches passes. I don't care if Peterson rumbles for 200 a game. Tomlinson is as consistant as any RB in NFL history, and I'm not talking about a Eddie George type of consistancy. Tomlinson has been a top five back since he has come into the league. And I know that I didn't see Andy Richardson say that Tomlinson's best years are behind him. What a misguided opinion. Tomlinson is a top five RB even while underachieving, and his underachieving is mostly out of things that are out of his control. Is it his problem that he got shut out against Minnesota last week? They have the best run defense in the NFL and we winning in a route. And in other games, the Chargers pulled him early because of blowouts. We may be looking at the greatest running back in NFL history, and no I am not talking about Peterson.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Nov. 08 at 06:08 AM
Saying Tomlinson's best years might be behind him doesn't mean I think he's washed up or anything. The guy is arguably the greatest running back in history, at least a top-3 guy. Peterson has a long way to go to be in that ballpark, obviously. But Tomlinson's numbers, 6-7 years into his career, aren't going to get better than the seasons he's already put up. Eventually the mileage will catch up with him, and he'll have to take on a slightly smaller workload and slow down -- happens to everyone. Whereas Peterson's that brand new shiny penny whose best is yet to come.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Nov. 08 at 06:09 AM
By the way, the person's comment regarding Benson was a joke referring to the other Adrian Peterson - the one who plays for the Bears.
Posted by Robert Heater | Nov. 08 at 11:07 AM
LT is not underachieving, he is right on with almost every other year of his career. Last year was the abberation, just because he isn't on that ridiculous TD pace doesn't mean he is underachieving. It took an amazing year from Tomlinson, a great year from the offense as a whole, and the fortune of lining up on the 2 yard line quite frequently to get his numbers in 06. No back in history has broken onto the stage like Peterson, LT wasn't even close, he averaged well under 4 ypc and needed 339 to get 1200 yards. Peterson is averaging over 6 ypc on a team that like LT entering San Diego, was expected to do nothing. I'm not trying to take anything away from LT, his career speaks for itself..... but Peterson is the truth. I'd take him #1, his indomitable talent with his awesome work ethic will make him the best RB of the next several years and probably of all time. We are getting a huge treat as NFL fans to just see this guy play.
Posted by Robert Heater | Nov. 08 at 11:09 AM
I meant to say, one of the best of all time.... I don't like to compare eras. Which is still obviously ridiculously high praise.
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