Ian Allan
Below are the revised projected wins for each team. This is a combination of how they’ve done so far, plus their likelihood of winning in each of their remaining seven games.
According to our numbers, the Colts, Saints, Vikings and Bengals will get the first round byes.
We’ve got the Patriots, Chargers, Cardinals and Cowboys are the other division winners, and the wild cards going to Pittsburgh, Denver, Philadelphia and the Giants (so much for the theory about the NFC East beating each other up).
Teams with the best chance of finishing with winning records but still missing the playoffs: Baltimore, Atlanta, Green Bay, Houston and Jacksonville. (With the Ravens, however, keep in mind that they’ve beaten both San Diego and Denver, so they’d win a tiebreaker against either team – if they can get up to 10 wins, they’ll be in the playoffs).
PROJECTED WINS FOR EACH TEAM
Wins
13.9 Indianapolis
13.9 New Orleans
13.5 Minnesota
12.0 Cincinnati
11.4 New England
11.2 Pittsburgh
10.8 Arizona
10.7 Dallas
10.6 San Diego
10.1 Denver
9.6 Baltimore
9.4 Philadelphia
9.2 NY Giants
9.2 Atlanta
8.9 Green Bay
8.8 Houston
8.8 Jacksonville
7.2 San Francisco
7.2 Carolina
7.0 NY Jets
6.8 Miami
6.5 Chicago
6.3 Seattle
6.2 Tennessee
5.0 Buffalo
4.5 Washington
4.1 Kansas City
3.3 Oakland
3.1 Cleveland
3.0 St. Louis
2.6 Detroit
2.1 Tampa Bay
WEEK-BY-WEEK DOCUMENTATION
Forecasts for each team and each game. For every game, I forecasted not a win or a loss, but a probability number. For Arizona at St. Louis this week, for example, I have the Cardinals with an 80 percent probability of winning that game. So they get .80 wins for that one, and the Rams get .20 wins. When I followed this process for all 256 regular-season games, I got the win totals listed above.
Arizona
loss San Francisco (H)
win Jacksonville (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
bye week
win Houston (H)
win Seattle (A)
win NY Giants (A)
loss Carolina (H)
win Chicago (A)
win Seattle (H)
.80 St. Louis (A)
.55 Tennessee (A)
.40 Minnesota (H)
.65 San Francisco (A)
.85 Detroit (A)
.85 St. Louis (H)
.65 Green Bay (H)
Atlanta
win Miami (H)
win Carolina (H)
loss New England (A)
bye week
win San Francisco (A)
win Chicago (H)
loss Dallas (A)
loss New Orleans (A)
win Washington (H)
loss Carolina (A)
.20 NY Giants (A)
.90 Tampa Bay (H)
.50 Philadelphia (H)
.55 New Orleans (H)
.45 NY Jets (A)
.85 Buffalo (H)
.75 Tampa Bay (A)
Baltimore
win Kansas City (H)
win San Diego (A)
win Cleveland (H)
loss New England (A)
loss Cincinnati (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
bye week
win Denver (H)
loss Cincinnati (A)
win Cleveland (A)
.55 Indianapolis (H)
.60 Pittsburgh (H)
.45 Green Bay (A)
.95 Detroit (H)
.85 Chicago (H)
.30 Pittsburgh (A)
.85 Oakland (A)
Buffalo
loss New England (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss New Orleans (H)
loss Miami (A)
loss Cleveland (H)
win NY Jets (A)
win Carolina (A)
loss Houston (H)
bye week
loss Tennessee (A)
.30 Jacksonville (A)
.40 Miami (H)
.45 NY Jets (H)
.40 Kansas City (A)
.15 New England (H)
.15 Atlanta (A)
.15 Indianapolis (H)
Carolina
loss Philadelphia (H)
loss Atlanta (A)
loss Dallas (A)
bye week
win Washington (H)
win Tampa Bay (A)
loss Buffalo (H)
win Arizona (A)
loss New Orleans (A)
win Atlanta (H)
.60 Miami (H)
.45 NY Jets (A)
.90 Tampa Bay (H)
.15 New England (A)
.25 Minnesota (H)
.35 NY Giants (A)
.45 New Orleans (H)
Chicago
loss Green Bay (A)
win Pittsburgh (H)
win Seattle (A)
win Detroit (H)
bye week
loss Atlanta (A)
loss Cincinnati (A)
win Cleveland (H)
loss Arizona (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
.35 Philadelphia (H)
.10 Minnesota (A)
.65 St. Louis (H)
.45 Green Bay (H)
.15 Baltimore (A)
.20 Minnesota (H)
.60 Detroit (A)
Cincinnati
loss Denver (H)
win Green Bay (A)
win Pittsburgh (H)
win Cleveland (A)
win Baltimore (A)
loss Houston (H)
win Chicago (H)
bye week
win Baltimore (H)
win Pittsburgh (A)
.85 Oakland (A)
.95 Cleveland (H)
.95 Detroit (H)
.20 Minnesota (A)
.40 San Diego (A)
.90 Kansas City (H)
.70 NY Jets (A)
Cleveland
loss Minnesota (H)
loss Denver (A)
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Cincinnati (H)
win Buffalo (A)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
loss Green Bay (H)
loss Chicago (A)
bye week
loss Baltimore (H)
.45 Detroit (A)
.05 Cincinnati (A)
.20 San Diego (H)
.15 Pittsburgh (H)
.35 Kansas City (A)
.60 Oakland (H)
.25 Jacksonville (H)
Dallas
win Tampa Bay (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
win Carolina (H)
loss Denver (A)
win Kansas City (A)
bye week
win Atlanta (H)
win Seattle (H)
win Philadelphia (A)
loss Green Bay (A)
.90 Washington (H)
.96 Oakland (H)
.45 NY Giants (A)
.65 San Diego (H)
.35 New Orleans (A)
.80 Washington (A)
.60 Philadelphia (H)
Denver
win Cincinnati (A)
win Cleveland (H)
win Oakland (A)
win Dallas (H)
win New England (H)
win San Diego (A)
bye week
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
loss Washington (A)
.55 San Diego (H)
.50 NY Giants (H)
.75 Kansas City (A)
.20 Indianapolis (A)
.90 Oakland (H)
.30 Philadelphia (A)
.85 Kansas City (H)
Detroit
loss New Orleans (A)
loss Minnesota (H)
win Washington (H)
loss Chicago (A)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
loss Green Bay (A)
bye week
loss St. Louis (H)
loss Seattle (A)
loss Minnesota (A)
.55 Cleveland (H)
.25 Green Bay (H)
.05 Cincinnati (A)
.05 Baltimore (A)
.15 Arizona (H)
.10 San Francisco (A)
.40 Chicago (H)
Green Bay
win Chicago (H)
loss Cincinnati (H)
win St. Louis (A)
loss Minnesota (A)
bye week
win Detroit (H)
win Cleveland (A)
loss Minnesota (H)
loss Tampa Bay (A)
win Dallas (H)
.70 San Francisco (H)
.75 Detroit (A)
.55 Baltimore (H)
.55 Chicago (A)
.25 Pittsburgh (A)
.75 Seattle (H)
.35 Arizona (A)
Houston
loss NY Jets (H)
win Tennessee (A)
loss Jacksonville (H)
win Oakland (H)
loss Arizona (A)
win Cincinnati (A)
win San Francisco (H)
win Buffalo (A)
loss Indianapolis (A)
bye week
.58 Tennessee (H)
.45 Indianapolis (H)
.40 Jacksonville (A)
.70 Seattle (H)
.75 St. Louis (A)
.55 Miami (A)
.35 New England (H)
Indianapolis
win Jacksonville (H)
win Miami (A)
win Arizona (A)
win Seattle (H)
win Tennessee (A)
bye week
win St. Louis (A)
win San Francisco (H)
win Houston (H)
win New England (H)
.45 Baltimore (A)
.55 Houston (A)
.80 Tennessee (H)
.80 Denver (H)
.55 Jacksonville (A)
.85 NY Jets (H)
.85 Buffalo (A)
Jacksonville
loss Indianapolis (A)
loss Arizona (H)
win Houston (A)
win Tennessee (H)
loss Seattle (A)
win St. Louis (H)
bye week
loss Tennessee (A)
win Kansas City (H)
win NY Jets (A)
.70 Buffalo (H)
.55 San Francisco (A)
.60 Houston (H)
.60 Miami (H)
.45 Indianapolis (H)
.10 New England (A)
.75 Cleveland (A)
Kansas City
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Oakland (H)
loss Philadelphia (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
loss Dallas (H)
win Washington (A)
loss San Diego (H)
bye week
loss Jacksonville (A)
win Oakland (A)
.15 Pittsburgh (H)
.15 San Diego (A)
.25 Denver (H)
.60 Buffalo (H)
.65 Cleveland (H)
.10 Cincinnati (A)
.15 Denver (A)
Miami
loss Atlanta (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
loss San Diego (A)
win Buffalo (H)
win NY Jets (H)
bye week
loss New Orleans (H)
win NY Jets (A)
loss New England (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
.40 Carolina (A)
.60 Buffalo (A)
.20 New England (H)
.40 Jacksonville (A)
.40 Tennessee (A)
.45 Houston (H)
.30 Pittsburgh (H)
Minnesota
win Cleveland (A)
win Detroit (A)
win San Francisco (H)
win Green Bay (H)
win St. Louis (A)
win Baltimore (H)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
win Green Bay (A)
bye week
win Detroit (H)
.92 Seattle (H)
.90 Chicago (H)
.60 Arizona (A)
.80 Cincinnati (H)
.75 Carolina (A)
.80 Chicago (A)
.70 NY Giants (H)
New England
win Buffalo (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
win Atlanta (H)
win Baltimore (H)
loss Denver (A)
win Tennessee (H)
win Tampa Bay (A)
bye week
win Miami (H)
loss Indianapolis (A)
.85 NY Jets (H)
.50 New Orleans (A)
.80 Miami (A)
.85 Carolina (H)
.85 Buffalo (A)
.90 Jacksonville (H)
.65 Houston (A)
New Orleans
win Detroit (H)
win Philadelphia (A)
win Buffalo (A)
win NY Jets (H)
bye week
win NY Giants (H)
win Miami (A)
win Atlanta (H)
win Carolina (H)
win St. Louis (A)
.90 Tampa Bay (A)
.50 New England (H)
.85 Washington (A)
.45 Atlanta (A)
.65 Dallas (H)
.95 Tampa Bay (H)
.55 Carolina (A)
NY Giants
win Washington (H)
win Dallas (A)
win Tampa Bay (A)
win Kansas City (A)
win Oakland (H)
loss New Orleans (A)
loss Arizona (H)
loss Philadelphia (A)
loss San Diego (H)
bye week
.80 Atlanta (H)
.50 Denver (A)
.55 Dallas (H)
.55 Philadelphia (H)
.80 Washington (A)
.65 Carolina (H)
.30 Minnesota (A)
NY Jets
win Houston (A)
win New England (H)
win Tennessee (H)
loss New Orleans (A)
loss Miami (A)
loss Buffalo (H)
win Oakland (A)
loss Miami (H)
bye week
loss Jacksonville (H)
.15 New England (A)
.55 Carolina (H)
.55 Buffalo (A)
.70 Tampa Bay (A)
.55 Atlanta (H)
.15 Indianapolis (A)
.30 Cincinnati (H)
Oakland
loss San Diego (H)
win Kansas City (A)
loss Denver (H)
loss Houston (A)
loss NY Giants (A)
win Philadelphia (H)
loss NY Jets (H)
loss San Diego (A)
bye week
loss Kansas City (H)
.15 Cincinnati (H)
.04 Dallas (A)
.04 Pittsburgh (A)
.45 Washington (H)
.10 Denver (A)
.40 Cleveland (A)
.15 Baltimore (H)
Philadelphia
win Carolina (A)
loss New Orleans (H)
win Kansas City (H)
bye week
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss Oakland (A)
win Washington (A)
win NY Giants (H)
loss Dallas (H)
loss San Diego (A)
.65 Chicago (A)
.90 Washington (H)
.50 Atlanta (A)
.45 NY Giants (A)
.80 San Francisco (H)
.70 Denver (H)
.40 Dallas (A)
Pittsburgh
win Tennessee (H)
loss Chicago (A)
loss Cincinnati (A)
win San Diego (H)
win Detroit (A)
win Cleveland (H)
win Minnesota (H)
bye week
win Denver (A)
loss Cincinnati (H)
.85 Kansas City (A)
.40 Baltimore (A)
.96 Oakland (H)
.85 Cleveland (A)
.75 Green Bay (H)
.70 Baltimore (H)
.70 Miami (A)
San Diego
win Oakland (A)
loss Baltimore (H)
win Miami (H)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
bye week
loss Denver (H)
win Kansas City (A)
win Oakland (H)
win NY Giants (A)
win Philadelphia (H)
.45 Denver (A)
.85 Kansas City (H)
.80 Cleveland (A)
.35 Dallas (A)
.60 Cincinnati (H)
.65 Tennessee (A)
.85 Washington (H)
San Francisco
win Arizona (A)
win Seattle (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
win St. Louis (H)
loss Atlanta (H)
bye week
loss Houston (A)
loss Indianapolis (A)
loss Tennessee (H)
win Chicago (H)
.30 Green Bay (A)
.45 Jacksonville (H)
.40 Seattle (A)
.35 Arizona (H)
.20 Philadelphia (A)
.90 Detroit (H)
.60 St. Louis (A)
Seattle
win St. Louis (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
loss Chicago (H)
loss Indianapolis (A)
win Jacksonville (H)
loss Arizona (H)
bye week
loss Dallas (A)
win Detroit (H)
loss Arizona (A)
.08 Minnesota (A)
.60 St. Louis (A)
.60 San Francisco (H)
.30 Houston (A)
.85 Tampa Bay (H)
.25 Green Bay (A)
.58 Tennessee (H)
St. Louis
loss Seattle (A)
loss Washington (A)
loss Green Bay (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
loss Minnesota (H)
loss Jacksonville (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
win Detroit (A)
bye week
loss New Orleans (H)
.20 Arizona (H)
.40 Seattle (H)
.35 Chicago (A)
.20 Tennessee (A)
.25 Houston (H)
.15 Arizona (A)
.40 San Francisco (H)
Tampa Bay
loss Dallas (H)
loss Buffalo (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
loss Washington (A)
loss Philadelphia (A)
loss Carolina (H)
loss New England (H)
bye week
win Green Bay (H)
loss Miami (A)
.10 New Orleans (H)
.10 Atlanta (A)
.10 Carolina (A)
.30 NY Jets (H)
.15 Seattle (A)
.05 New Orleans (A)
.25 Atlanta (H)
Tennessee
loss Pittsburgh (A)
loss Houston (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
loss Jacksonville (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
loss New England (A)
bye week
win Jacksonville (H)
win San Francisco (A)
win Buffalo (H)
.42 Houston (A)
.45 Arizona (H)
.20 Indianapolis (A)
.80 St. Louis (H)
.60 Miami (H)
.35 San Diego (H)
.42 Seattle (A)
Washington
loss NY Giants (A)
win St. Louis (H)
loss Detroit (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss Carolina (A)
loss Kansas City (H)
loss Philadelphia (H)
bye week
loss Atlanta (A)
win Denver (H)
.10 Dallas (A)
.10 Philadelphia (A)
.15 New Orleans (H)
.55 Oakland (A)
.20 NY Giants (H)
.20 Dallas (H)
.15 San Diego (A)
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