Ian Allan
Below are my updated win-loss numbers for each team. This is the result of forecasting each of the remaining 64 games.
According to these numbers (which generally are close to what you might get if you simply used the point spreads from a casino), the Saints, Colts, Vikings and Chargers will get the first-round byes.
Other division winners: Cincinnati, Arizona, New England and Philadelphia.
Wild cards: Denver, Dallas, Green Bay, Baltimore.
The results change if instead of using partial wins, you are forced to “call” each game either a win or a loss. With that system, Dallas becomes a division winner, you have to get the tiebreaker stuff out to figure if Green Bay, Philadelphia or the Giants is left out of the playoffs. And on the AFC side, Pittsburgh moves ahead of Baltimore to get the final wild-card spot.
PROJECTED WINS FOR EACH TEAM
Projected total wins for each team, using a combination of wins already in hand and a forecast of the final four weeks. For each game, a team gets some portion of a win (.95 if it looks certain to win, and .05 if it looks certain to lose). The numbers in parentheses show the record if each game is simply called a win or a loss.
Wins
15.3 New Orleans (16-0)
14.7 Indianapolis (16-0)
13.1 Minnesota (14-2)
11.4 San Diego (11-5)
11.1 Cincinnati (11-5)
10.9 Arizona (12-4)
10.4 Denver (10-6)
10.3 Philadelphia (10-6)
10.2 Dallas (11-5)
10.2 Green Bay (10-6)
10.0 New England (11-5)
9.1 NY Giants (10-6)
9.1 Baltimore (9-7)
8.8 Jacksonville (9-7)
8.6 Pittsburgh (10-6)
8.2 NY Jets (8-8)
8.0 Atlanta (8-8)
7.9 Tennessee (9-7)
7.7 Miami (7-9)
7.4 San Francisco (7-9)
7.3 Houston (7-9)
6.7 Seattle (6-10)
6.1 Chicago (5-11)
5.9 Carolina (5-11)
5.4 Buffalo (4-12)
5.3 Oakland (4-12)
4.3 Kansas City (5-11)
4.3 Washington (4-12)
2.8 Detroit (3-13)
2.4 Cleveland (2-14)
1.8 Tampa Bay (1-15)
1.6 St. Louis (1-15)
SUPPORTING DOCUMENTATION
Team-by-team forecasts. 95% = near-certain win, while 5% = near-certain loss.
Arizona
loss San Francisco (H)
win Jacksonville (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
bye week
win Houston (H)
win Seattle (A)
win NY Giants (A)
loss Carolina (H)
win Chicago (A)
win Seattle (H)
win St. Louis (A)
loss Tennessee (A)
win Minnesota (H)
55% San Francisco (A)
90% Detroit (A)
92% St. Louis (H)
55% Green Bay (H)
Atlanta
win Miami (H)
win Carolina (H)
loss New England (A)
bye week
win San Francisco (A)
win Chicago (H)
loss Dallas (A)
loss New Orleans (A)
win Washington (H)
loss Carolina (A)
loss NY Giants (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss Philadelphia (H)
15% New Orleans (H)
35% NY Jets (A)
75% Buffalo (H)
70% Tampa Bay (A)
Baltimore
win Kansas City (H)
win San Diego (A)
win Cleveland (H)
loss New England (A)
loss Cincinnati (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
bye week
win Denver (H)
loss Cincinnati (A)
win Cleveland (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
win Pittsburgh (H)
loss Green Bay (A)
95% Detroit (H)
95% Chicago (H)
40% Pittsburgh (A)
80% Oakland (A)
Buffalo
loss New England (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss New Orleans (H)
loss Miami (A)
loss Cleveland (H)
win NY Jets (A)
win Carolina (A)
loss Houston (H)
bye week
loss Tennessee (A)
loss Jacksonville (A)
win Miami (H)
loss NY Jets (H)
47% Kansas City (A)
30% New England (H)
25% Atlanta (A)
40% Indianapolis (H)
Carolina
loss Philadelphia (H)
loss Atlanta (A)
loss Dallas (A)
bye week
win Washington (H)
win Tampa Bay (A)
loss Buffalo (H)
win Arizona (A)
loss New Orleans (A)
win Atlanta (H)
loss Miami (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
15% New England (A)
20% Minnesota (H)
35% NY Giants (A)
20% New Orleans (H)
Chicago
loss Green Bay (A)
win Pittsburgh (H)
win Seattle (A)
win Detroit (H)
bye week
loss Atlanta (A)
loss Cincinnati (A)
win Cleveland (H)
loss Arizona (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
loss Philadelphia (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
win St. Louis (H)
35% Green Bay (H)
5% Baltimore (A)
20% Minnesota (H)
45% Detroit (A)
Cincinnati
loss Denver (H)
win Green Bay (A)
win Pittsburgh (H)
win Cleveland (A)
win Baltimore (A)
loss Houston (H)
win Chicago (H)
bye week
win Baltimore (H)
win Pittsburgh (A)
loss Oakland (A)
win Cleveland (H)
win Detroit (H)
25% Minnesota (A)
35% San Diego (A)
90% Kansas City (H)
60% NY Jets (A)
Cleveland
loss Minnesota (H)
loss Denver (A)
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Cincinnati (H)
win Buffalo (A)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
loss Green Bay (H)
loss Chicago (A)
bye week
loss Baltimore (H)
loss Detroit (A)
loss Cincinnati (A)
loss San Diego (H)
22% Pittsburgh (H)
40% Kansas City (A)
53% Oakland (H)
20% Jacksonville (H)
Dallas
win Tampa Bay (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
win Carolina (H)
loss Denver (A)
win Kansas City (A)
bye week
win Atlanta (H)
win Seattle (H)
win Philadelphia (A)
loss Green Bay (A)
win Washington (H)
win Oakland (H)
loss NY Giants (A)
60% San Diego (H)
30% New Orleans (A)
70% Washington (A)
60% Philadelphia (H)
Denver
win Cincinnati (A)
win Cleveland (H)
win Oakland (A)
win Dallas (H)
win New England (H)
win San Diego (A)
bye week
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
loss Washington (A)
loss San Diego (H)
win NY Giants (H)
win Kansas City (A)
25% Indianapolis (A)
85% Oakland (H)
35% Philadelphia (A)
90% Kansas City (H)
Detroit
loss New Orleans (A)
loss Minnesota (H)
win Washington (H)
loss Chicago (A)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
loss Green Bay (A)
bye week
loss St. Louis (H)
loss Seattle (A)
loss Minnesota (A)
win Cleveland (H)
loss Green Bay (H)
loss Cincinnati (A)
5% Baltimore (A)
10% Arizona (H)
14% San Francisco (A)
55% Chicago (H)
Green Bay
win Chicago (H)
loss Cincinnati (H)
win St. Louis (A)
loss Minnesota (A)
bye week
win Detroit (H)
win Cleveland (A)
loss Minnesota (H)
loss Tampa Bay (A)
win Dallas (H)
win San Francisco (H)
win Detroit (A)
win Baltimore (H)
65% Chicago (A)
35% Pittsburgh (A)
75% Seattle (H)
45% Arizona (A)
Houston
loss NY Jets (H)
win Tennessee (A)
loss Jacksonville (H)
win Oakland (H)
loss Arizona (A)
win Cincinnati (A)
win San Francisco (H)
win Buffalo (A)
loss Indianapolis (A)
bye week
loss Tennessee (H)
loss Indianapolis (H)
loss Jacksonville (A)
70% Seattle (H)
75% St. Louis (A)
45% Miami (A)
35% New England (H)
Indianapolis
win Jacksonville (H)
win Miami (A)
win Arizona (A)
win Seattle (H)
win Tennessee (A)
bye week
win St. Louis (A)
win San Francisco (H)
win Houston (H)
win New England (H)
win Baltimore (A)
win Houston (A)
win Tennessee (H)
75% Denver (H)
70% Jacksonville (A)
60% NY Jets (H)
60% Buffalo (A)
Jacksonville
loss Indianapolis (A)
loss Arizona (H)
win Houston (A)
win Tennessee (H)
loss Seattle (A)
win St. Louis (H)
bye week
loss Tennessee (A)
win Kansas City (H)
win NY Jets (A)
win Buffalo (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
win Houston (H)
53% Miami (H)
30% Indianapolis (H)
20% New England (A)
80% Cleveland (A)
Kansas City
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Oakland (H)
loss Philadelphia (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
loss Dallas (H)
win Washington (A)
loss San Diego (H)
bye week
loss Jacksonville (A)
win Oakland (A)
win Pittsburgh (H)
loss San Diego (A)
loss Denver (H)
53% Buffalo (H)
60% Cleveland (H)
10% Cincinnati (A)
10% Denver (A)
Miami
loss Atlanta (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
loss San Diego (A)
win Buffalo (H)
win NY Jets (H)
bye week
loss New Orleans (H)
win NY Jets (A)
loss New England (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
win Carolina (A)
loss Buffalo (A)
win New England (H)
47% Jacksonville (A)
25% Tennessee (A)
55% Houston (H)
45% Pittsburgh (H)
Minnesota
win Cleveland (A)
win Detroit (A)
win San Francisco (H)
win Green Bay (H)
win St. Louis (A)
win Baltimore (H)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
win Green Bay (A)
bye week
win Detroit (H)
win Seattle (H)
win Chicago (H)
loss Arizona (A)
75% Cincinnati (H)
80% Carolina (A)
80% Chicago (A)
70% NY Giants (H)
New England
win Buffalo (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
win Atlanta (H)
win Baltimore (H)
loss Denver (A)
win Tennessee (H)
win Tampa Bay (A)
bye week
win Miami (H)
loss Indianapolis (A)
win NY Jets (H)
loss New Orleans (A)
loss Miami (A)
85% Carolina (H)
70% Buffalo (A)
80% Jacksonville (H)
65% Houston (A)
New Orleans
win Detroit (H)
win Philadelphia (A)
win Buffalo (A)
win NY Jets (H)
bye week
win NY Giants (H)
win Miami (A)
win Atlanta (H)
win Carolina (H)
win St. Louis (A)
win Tampa Bay (A)
win New England (H)
win Washington (A)
85% Atlanta (A)
70% Dallas (H)
96% Tampa Bay (H)
80% Carolina (A)
NY Giants
win Washington (H)
win Dallas (A)
win Tampa Bay (A)
win Kansas City (A)
win Oakland (H)
loss New Orleans (A)
loss Arizona (H)
loss Philadelphia (A)
loss San Diego (H)
bye week
win Atlanta (H)
loss Denver (A)
win Dallas (H)
52% Philadelphia (H)
65% Washington (A)
65% Carolina (H)
30% Minnesota (A)
NY Jets
win Houston (A)
win New England (H)
win Tennessee (H)
loss New Orleans (A)
loss Miami (A)
loss Buffalo (H)
win Oakland (A)
loss Miami (H)
bye week
loss Jacksonville (H)
loss New England (A)
win Carolina (H)
win Buffalo (A)
70% Tampa Bay (A)
65% Atlanta (H)
40% Indianapolis (A)
40% Cincinnati (H)
Oakland
loss San Diego (H)
win Kansas City (A)
loss Denver (H)
loss Houston (A)
loss NY Giants (A)
win Philadelphia (H)
loss NY Jets (H)
loss San Diego (A)
bye week
loss Kansas City (H)
win Cincinnati (H)
loss Dallas (A)
win Pittsburgh (A)
48% Washington (H)
15% Denver (A)
47% Cleveland (A)
20% Baltimore (H)
Philadelphia
win Carolina (A)
loss New Orleans (H)
win Kansas City (H)
bye week
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss Oakland (A)
win Washington (A)
win NY Giants (H)
loss Dallas (H)
loss San Diego (A)
win Chicago (A)
win Washington (H)
win Atlanta (A)
48% NY Giants (A)
75% San Francisco (H)
65% Denver (H)
40% Dallas (A)
Pittsburgh
win Tennessee (H)
loss Chicago (A)
loss Cincinnati (A)
win San Diego (H)
win Detroit (A)
win Cleveland (H)
win Minnesota (H)
bye week
win Denver (A)
loss Cincinnati (H)
loss Kansas City (A)
loss Baltimore (A)
loss Oakland (H)
78% Cleveland (A)
65% Green Bay (H)
60% Baltimore (H)
55% Miami (A)
San Diego
win Oakland (A)
loss Baltimore (H)
win Miami (H)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
bye week
loss Denver (H)
win Kansas City (A)
win Oakland (H)
win NY Giants (A)
win Philadelphia (H)
win Denver (A)
win Kansas City (H)
win Cleveland (A)
40% Dallas (A)
65% Cincinnati (H)
45% Tennessee (A)
85% Washington (H)
San Francisco
win Arizona (A)
win Seattle (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
win St. Louis (H)
loss Atlanta (H)
bye week
loss Houston (A)
loss Indianapolis (A)
loss Tennessee (H)
win Chicago (H)
loss Green Bay (A)
win Jacksonville (H)
loss Seattle (A)
45% Arizona (H)
25% Philadelphia (A)
86% Detroit (H)
80% St. Louis (A)
Seattle
win St. Louis (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
loss Chicago (H)
loss Indianapolis (A)
win Jacksonville (H)
loss Arizona (H)
bye week
loss Dallas (A)
win Detroit (H)
loss Arizona (A)
loss Minnesota (A)
win St. Louis (A)
win San Francisco (H)
30% Houston (A)
82% Tampa Bay (H)
25% Green Bay (A)
35% Tennessee (H)
St. Louis
loss Seattle (A)
loss Washington (A)
loss Green Bay (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
loss Minnesota (H)
loss Jacksonville (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
win Detroit (A)
bye week
loss New Orleans (H)
loss Arizona (H)
loss Seattle (H)
loss Chicago (A)
6% Tennessee (A)
25% Houston (H)
8% Arizona (A)
20% San Francisco (H)
Tampa Bay
loss Dallas (H)
loss Buffalo (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
loss Washington (A)
loss Philadelphia (A)
loss Carolina (H)
loss New England (H)
bye week
win Green Bay (H)
loss Miami (A)
loss New Orleans (H)
loss Atlanta (A)
loss Carolina (A)
30% NY Jets (H)
18% Seattle (A)
4% New Orleans (A)
30% Atlanta (H)
Tennessee
loss Pittsburgh (A)
loss Houston (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
loss Jacksonville (A)
loss Indianapolis (H)
loss New England (A)
bye week
win Jacksonville (H)
win San Francisco (A)
win Buffalo (H)
win Houston (A)
win Arizona (H)
loss Indianapolis (A)
94% St. Louis (H)
75% Miami (H)
55% San Diego (H)
65% Seattle (A)
Washington
loss NY Giants (A)
win St. Louis (H)
loss Detroit (A)
win Tampa Bay (H)
loss Carolina (A)
loss Kansas City (H)
loss Philadelphia (H)
bye week
loss Atlanta (A)
win Denver (H)
loss Dallas (A)
loss Philadelphia (A)
loss New Orleans (H)
52% Oakland (A)
35% NY Giants (H)
30% Dallas (H)
15% San Diego (A)
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