Factoid

NFL GMs and draft experts alike are predicting big things from Georgia Tech's Calvin Johnson, who was the first wide receiver taken in the 2007 NFL Draft. A quick look at the history of those guys, however, suggests that not only will he have a fairly modest rookie season -- even 850 receiving yards would establish a high-water mark -- the odds are against him being the type of star player most are projecting.

Even leaving out recent players on whom the jury is still out, nearly two-thirds of the top wideouts drafted since 1967 have gone on to mediocre careers -- at best. Based on recent history, in fact, there's as much chance that Johnson will be with a new team or out of the league 5 years down the road as going to Pro Bowls. This is not to say he won't be a star, of course; just that he'll be in the distinct minority if he turns out that way. And the odds are definitely against him as a rookie: Only 9 of 40 have scored more than 5 TDs in their first season, and only 5 put up more than 800 receiving yards.

The rookie numbers for the top wideouts drafted since 1967 are presented below.