Fantasy Index Scheduletron -- strength-of-schedule analysis

The 2009 regular season is over, so opponents for next year are all in place. And according to the early numbers, it looks like the West Coast teams will play the easiest schedules.

Both the AFC and NFC West Divisions are weak right now, and those divisions will meet each other in 2010. That helps lift those teams to the top of the heap in scheduling – at least expected scheduling (some teams will no doubt be dramatically better or worse next season).

Five teams will play their 16-game schedules against opponents to combined to win fewer than 120 games – the Chargers, and the four teams in the NFC West. So that’s an edge for those players (they should put up better numbers than they would with a harder schedule).

The hardest schedules, meanwhile, belong to the teams in the NFC East and the AFC South. Since the NFL went to its current eight-division format, those divisions have won more games than any others, and they’ll crack heads next year. Tennessee and Houston project to play the hardest schedules, followed by Dallas, Cincinnati and the Jaguars.

Schedules are mostly based on a rotational system. This coming year, for the games between conferences, it’s AFC North against the NFC South, the AFC East against the NFC North, and the AFC South against the NFC East. The two West divisions play against each other.

Inside conferences, the West divisions will play each team in their respective South divisions, while the North and East divisions will square off.

Each team’s other eight games are made up of playing each team in its own division (six games), plus two other games against the teams in its own conference that finished in the same places in their divisions. For example, Kansas City, Jacksonville, Cleveland and Buffalo each finished in last place in the four AFC divisions, so all of those teams will play each other (Jacksonville would have played Kansas City anyway, but its last-place finish means that it will also play Cleveland and Buffalo).


STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE FOR 2010
Based on combined wins and losses of opponents:

  Win  Loss  Pct.
  114  142  .445  Arizona
  115  141  .449  St. Louis
  116  140  .453  San Diego
  116  140  .453  Seattle
  117  139  .457  San Francisco
  120  136  .469  New Orleans
  122  134  .477  Carolina
  123  133  .480  Tampa Bay
  124  132  .484  Denver
  125  131  .488  Green Bay
  125  131  .488  Kansas City
  126  130  .492  Pittsburgh
  127  129  .496  Atlanta
  128  128  .500  Buffalo
  128  128  .500  Miami
  128  128  .500  NY Jets
  128  128  .500  Oakland
  129  127  .504  Chicago
  129  127  .504  Minnesota
  130  126  .508  Baltimore
  130  126  .508  Detroit
  132  124  .516  Cleveland
  132  124  .516  Indianapolis
  133  123  .520  Philadelphia
  134  122  .523  Washington
  135  121  .527  NY Giants
  136  120  .531  New England
  137  119  .535  Jacksonville
  138  118  .539  Cincinnati
  139  117  .543  Dallas
  140  116  .547  Houston
  140  116  .547  Tennessee

—Ian Allan

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