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Viva Murillo!

One good way to start a fantasy football-related argument is to discuss whether the game is mostly luck or skill. There are interesting points on both sides, and I think it would make a really good column. In August.

But it’s not August, is it? It’s December. The truth is that whether you got to the playoffs by a great draft, wise waiver wire choices, shrewd trades, or sheer luck…it doesn’t matter. You’re in the playoffs and a couple more wins will claim the title.

Now, whatever you believe with regard to fantasy football, there’s no denying that luck is going to play a role in weeks 15 and 16. A twisted ankle, a pass interference penalty in the end zone, a punt return for a touchdown where three flagrant holds were ignored—all of those things can be the difference between winning and losing. No matter how good your starters were throughout the season, all that matters is the next 120 minutes of football. And that’s thinking “long term.” The truth is that the next game, and only the next game, will determine whether you’re making money or making excuses.

So should you approach things differently this week, or treat it like any other game? I say treat it differently, because it’s not any other game. It’s a game you have to win. I also don’t think you’re obligated to “dance with the one who brought you” or however that awkwardly-worded phrase goes. You know what I mean. You don’t have to start your starters because they’ve gotten you this far. You have to start the guys who you think will score the most points in week 15. If they’re your regular guys, great. But if not, feel free to start other guys in their place.

Now, that doesn’t mean you bench a consistent performer because you think another match-up could yield more points. It just means that no position is secure on your team and nobody is an automatic start.

I suggest you steal a page from the bean-counters and use a “zero-based budgeting” philosophy: Instead of using last year’s budget, an organization starts over and justifies every dollar based on need, not previous history. In fantasy football, start with a blank roster and fill in the guys you think will do the best this particular week. Don’t assume anyone is in your lineup yet; build it from scratch.

That does two things for you. First, it ensures your lineup has only the guys you think will do well in week 15. And second, you don’t have to think about whether you can “bench” anyone. In reality, you’ve benched everyone so there are no emotional decisions to make.

Of course, this doesn’t guarantee you anything but control over your own roster. But in a must-win situation, that’s pretty important. Whether you think fantasy football is mostly luck or skill, you don’t have complete control over your fortunes this weekend. The best you can do is start the guys you think will score the most points in week 15, regardless of who they are. There are no more “starters” and “backups.” Go with your gut and enjoy the games. Good luck this week.

Feel free to describe your match-up dilemmas below. You can also reach Michael Murillo at vivamurillo@gmail.com.

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