Ian Allan
The guys at Hungry Hill Sausage were nice enough to send us a variety of their products. They came in a cooler with a Chicago Bears logo on the side. That’s what we’ll be eating as we ignore the lame halftime show this year. It’s appreciated, so we’re putting the Hungry Hill name on our Super Bowl preview this year.
OVERVIEW
Dwight Freeney is the third-best player in this game, behind only Peyton Manning and Drew Brees. The other big-name guys – Reggie Wayne, Marques Colston, Joseph Addai, Reggie Bush, Dallas Clark – aren’t as important. And as luck would have it, Freeney messed up his ankle in the closing minutes of the AFC Championship. He’s expected to play, but he’s not 100 percent. His playing time will be reduced, and he might not be as effective – giving Brees a better chance to hang with Manning. Robert Mathis (the Colts’ other defensive end) hinted on Tuesday that Freeney will play only on third downs. That changes this game. With Freeney healthy and on top of his game, Indianapolis would be almost a prohibitive favorite – I didn’t think the 4-point spread would be nearly enough. But if Freeney isn’t a factor, this could become more of a back-and-forth shootout. The over-under of 56.5 points, in my opinion, is way too low. Only once in NFL history have both teams in a Super Bowl scored 30-plus points (Pittsburgh-Dallas in 1979). I think it might happen again in this game, and the all-time scoring record of 75 points (San Francisco 49, San Diego 26) might be in jeopardy.
QUARTERBACK
Both quarterbacks might throw for 300-plus yards and 3-plus touchdowns, but I’m putting Peyton Manning a little higher than Drew Brees. Both quarterbacks are outstanding, but Manning just seems to be operating on another level right now. He’s been on fire in the playoffs, tearing up two very good defenses. The Jets had the league’s best pass defense in the regular season, allowing under 52 percent completions and only 8 TD passes (2nd-fewest ever in a 16-game season). And Manning just cut them up, passing for 377 yards and 3 TDs. Brees, on the other hand, surprisingly struggled for most of the day in the NFC Championship, completing only 17 of 31 for 197 yards against a Minnesota defense that’s had problems against the pass. These quarterbacks have put up similar overall numbers. Not including meaningless week 17 games, Manning is averaging 296 yards per game, with a 39-16 ratio of TDs to interceptions, while Brees is at 284 yards per game, with 40 TDs versus 11 interceptions. But as well as Manning is playing right now, he deserves the slight edge. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Colts scored every time they had the ball in the first half. The Saints really couldn’t stop Minnesota – they needed luck with turnovers to win that game. I see only one significant indicator in Brees’ favor. New Orleans’ defense, for reasons that I can’t explain, has tended to give up plenty of touchdowns on the ground. The Saints have 8 more touchdowns rushing (24) than passing (16). So there’s a chance that the Colts will score 2-3 rushing touchdowns, maybe allowing Brees to post better numbers than Manning. But I don’t want to get overly numerical on this thing. Manning is one of the all-time greats – he may finish his career as the best quarterback ever – and he seems to be playing the best ball of his entire career right now.
RUNNING BACK
There’s never been a Super Bowl with two teams that use more of a committee approach at tailback. Both teams go three deep. Joseph Addai, Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush and Donald Brown are the main backs, but both teams potentially could bring in a nobody to punch in a 1-yard touchdown. For the Colts, Mike Hart carried the ball 6 times against the Ravens, and I saw him in the game near the goal-line against the Jets – they faked it to him on the short touchdown pass to Pierre Garcon. The Saints have used Mike Bell on goal-line situations off and on all year; he scored 5 TDs in the regular season (as well as running for 654 yards). But Bell appears to have been passed on the depth chart by Lynell Hamilton. Hamilton had 5 carries (for 23 yards) against Arizona, and he scored a 1-yard touchdown against Minnesota. Bell carried 6 times for only 11 yards against Arizona, then didn’t even touch the ball against Minnesota. Bottom line: it’s a convoluted mess. Of this group, Addai is the most likely to score, and I think he’ll probably gain the most yards as well. He will play more than any running back on either team, and he just put together his best game of the season, running for 80 yards on 16 carries against the Jets. If you look at just the last 10 meaningful games (disregarding week 17), the New Orleans defense has allowed almost three times more rushing touchdowns (14 to 5 in those game). The Saints hold a 9-8 edge in rushing touchdowns during that span, but as you push around the numbers, it looks far more likely that Indianapolis will score by that method. And Addai has scored 10 of their 16 rushing touchdowns. No player on the Saints has accounted for even a third of that team’s rushing touchdowns – they’ve just got so many guys involved. In terms of receiving production, Addai, Thomas and Bush all look pretty similar – all have caught 45-55 passes and 3-4 TDs so far. In Addai’s last 10 games, he’s averaged 80 total yards (60 rushing, 20 receiving), with 6 TDs. Thomas in his last 10 has been similar to Addai, averaging 79 yards (50 rushing, 29 receiving), with 5 TDs. Bush in his last 10 games -- and again meaningful games -- has actually outscored those guys (8 TDs) but has averaged only 55 total yards per game. So in a fantasy league using 6 points for TDs and 1 point for every 10 yards, I think the appropriate order is: Addai, Thomas, Bush, Brown, Hamilton, Bell, Hart.
RECEIVERS
I don’t see anything out of the ordinary with these defenses that causes me to believe that a particular player will be more heavily featured than usual. Neither defense is unusually strong or weak against wide receivers or tight ends, so I see no reason to rank a player much higher or lower than usual. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark project to be the top guys. Both have caught 111 passes and 11 TDs in 17 games. The Colts have scored 40 touchdowns on passes overall, so if you assume that Peyton Manning will throw 3 TD passes in this game (and I think he will), that works out to Wayne and Clark each finishing with .83 TD catches – they’ve got an excellent chance to score. Like Manning, Wayne was born in New Orleans, and he’ll probably also come back to haunt his hometown in this game. The Colts’ most productive receivers in the playoffs have been Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. Garcon has caught 16 passes for 185 yards and a touchdown, while Collie has caught 11 passes for 175 and 2 TDs – they’ve been better than Wayne and Clark. But I expect those youngsters to slip back in this game. They’ve benefited from matchups in the last two games – the Jets had All-Pro corner Darrelle Revis locked down on Wayne, and that caused Manning to send more passes to other receivers. Garcon in his final eight regular-season games averaged 66 receiving yards, with 2 TDs in those eight games. Collie averaged only 41 yards in the second half of the regular season, with 3 TDs in eight games. So I think it makes sense to rank them behind Wayne and Clark, and Marques Colston as well. Colston’s numbers have been just a notch behind Clark’s thus far – he’s averaged 69 yards in 17 meaningful games, with 10 of Drew Brees’ 40 TD passes. So every time Brees throws a touchdown (and he should throw 2-3 in this game), there’s about a 25 percent chance it goes to Colston. The rest of the New Orleans’ receiving corps, we’ll fit in behind Garcon and Collie. Robert Meachem was very good in the regular season – matching Colston for much of the year – but for whatever reason, he hasn’t played much of a role in the postseason, catching only 2 passes for 19 yards (and he’s had only 2 other passes thrown his way). The Saints have Lance Moore back, and that seems to be costing Meachem some playing time. And for reasons I can’t explain, Devery Henderson has been more involved recently. Henderson, believe it or not, has been New Orleans’ most productive pass receiver in the postseason, catching 8 passes for 119 yards and 2 TDs. The Saints also have Jeremy Shockey at tight end, but I don’t see him being a factor. He’s caught only 13 more passes than the team’s other tight end (David Thomas), and Shockey has caught only 2 of the team’s last 34 TD passes – they’re not using him in the red zone. I think the appropriate order for the New Orleans’ receivers, therefore, is: Colston, Henderson, Meachem, Shockey, Moore, Thomas.
KICKER
I’ll go with Matt Stover over Garrett Hartley. Winning teams tend to score more kicking points. Hartley has more range, but Stover is more accurate on shorter kicks – and also probably less likely to let the pressure of the performing on the biggest stage get to him. If the Colts win this game, they’ll have two kickers who’ve won Super Bowls with multiple franchises – Stover and Adam Vinatieri. Only one other kicker has won Super Bowls with different teams: Matt Bahr (Steelers and Giants).
DEFENSE / SPECIAL TEAMS
The raw data indicates that the Saints are better in this category. In the regular season, they had 10 more interceptions, while Peyton Manning has thrown 6 more interceptions (17-11) than Drew Brees. New Orleans had 4 more takeaways on fumbles. It was also better on kickoffs – both returning and defending. And Reggie Bush looks like the player most likely to return a punt for a touchdown. I’ll be surprised if either teams gets more than one sack – it’s just awfully hard to sack those quarterbacks. So purely off the numbers, the Saints defense looks better. But I’m putting the Colts a little higher. I see them as less likely to get flustered – I don’t see them falling behind and then making a bunch of uncharacteristic errors. They’ve got a lot more playoff experience.
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