Ian Allan

Is the running game dead in the NFL? Is this now strictly a passing league?

Two years in a row, the team ranking last in rushing has made the playoffs – Arizona last season and now Indianapolis. The other Super Bowl team last year, Pittsburgh, also ranked in the bottom 10 in rushing, and the No. 2 seed in the AFC this year (San Diego) ranked next-to-last in rushing.

The Associated Press ran a story a few days ago, highlighting the Manning-Brees matchup and explaining that the days of running the ball, controlling the clock, etc., seem to be over. Our own Andy Richardson even got into the act earlier in the week, explaining how there were more 4,000-yard and 3,500-yard passers this season than ever before.

But is any of this true? And is it an indication that the league is headed in a new direction?

I looked at it briefly this morning, pulling up the numbers for the last 30 years – passing and rushing yards, passing and rushing touchdowns.

They show that for 2009, teams averaged 232 passing yards per game – the 2nd-most ever. Touchdown passes weren’t quite as impressive – 1.39 per game (5th-most ever). Rushing yards, surprisingly, also were slightly above-average last year, though rushing touchdowns came in slight below average.

What’s causing these shifts?

Rules changes have certainly played a role. Defenses no longer can hit quarterbacks above the neck or below the waist, and they’re also not being given as much license to hit quarterbacks right after the ball is released. There are also more restrictions on contacting wide receivers, which makes the game more of a flag-football type sport (and maybe that’s the way they should handle the Pro Bowl – just have them play flag football).

And I believe the league has also benefited from simply have a lot of good quarterbacks right now. Overall, the position is very healthy. You’ve got Brees, Palmer, Brady, Roethlisberger, Romo, Rodger, Rivers and the Manning brothers, just to name a few. And there seems to be a solid group of young quarterbacks coming up. Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez all look like they’re going to be very good, and the other two first-rounders of the last two years (Matthew Stafford and Josh Freeman) might turn out as well.

The quality and depth of the quarterback position, however, could decline in the upcoming years. Kurt Warner just retired, so Arizona won’t be as good at quarterback. And Brett Favre also might have played his last game, creating a big step back to Tarvaris Jackson. Matt Hasselbeck seems to be slipping.

Clearly this is a pass-oriented league. Every team wants to get that franchise-type quarterback in place. But I think you’ll see the numbers slip back a little in the upcoming seasons. About 225-228 passing yards per game and 21-22 TD passes per season, I think, are the averages to expect in the coming years.


PASSING YARDS PER GAME, 1979-2009

  Year  Yards
  1995  235.6
  2009  232.3
  1989  228.7
  1988  228.7
  1999  228.3
  2007  228.3
  1984  228.2
  1994  227.4
  2002  227.0
  1985  226.6
  1986  225.7
  2004  225.3
  1983  225.3
  2008  224.2
  1987  223.5
  1981  222.6
  1996  222.2
  2000  222.0
  2001  221.0
  1998  221.0
  1982  220.9
  1997  219.4
  2006  219.3
  2005  218.2
  1993  215.4
  1991  214.5
  1980  214.1
  2003  213.8
  1990  211.4
  1992  205.4


PASSING TOUCHDOWNS PER GAME, 1979-2009

  Year  TD
  1987  1.45
  2004  1.43
  2007  1.41
  1983  1.40
  2009  1.39
  1995  1.38
  1984  1.37
  1998  1.37
  2002  1.36
  1980  1.35
  1999  1.34
  1985  1.33
  1981  1.32
  1986  1.31
  1996  1.30
  1994  1.30
  1989  1.30
  1988  1.30
  1997  1.29
  1990  1.28
  2001  1.28
  2000  1.28
  2003  1.28
  1982  1.27
  2006  1.27
  2008  1.26
  2005  1.26
  1993  1.15
  1992  1.15
  1991  1.14




RUSHING YARDS PER GAME, 1979-2009

  Year  Yards
  1981  130.1
  1983  129.7
  1980  127.5
  1985  124.9
  1987  123.9
  1984  123.9
  1986  118.7
  2003  117.9
  1982  117.8
  2006  117.3
  2009  116.7
  2004  116.6
  2002  116.1
  2008  116.0
  1989  115.3
  1988  115.3
  1990  113.9
  1997  113.0
  1998  112.7
  2000  112.6
  2005  112.5
  2001  111.8
  2007  110.9
  1992  110.5
  1993  110.0
  1996  109.0
  1995  108.1
  1991  107.7
  1999  106.5
  1994  104.3




RUSHING TOUCHDOWNS PER GAME, 1979-2009

  Year  TD
  1985  .99
  1981  .98
  1983  .98
  1980  .96
  2008  .93
  1982  .92
  1984  .92
  2002  .90
  1986  .90
  1989  .87
  1988  .87
  1987  .86
  2005  .84
  1990  .84
  2009  .84
  2003  .83
  2000  .83
  2006  .83
  2004  .81
  1995  .80
  1997  .80
  1991  .80
  1998  .79
  1994  .76
  1996  .76
  2007  .75
  1992  .74
  2001  .74
  1999  .73
  1993  .68



PERCENTAGE OF TOUCHDOWNS SCORED ON PASSES, 1979-2009
This shows percentage of offensive touchdowns scored on pass plays – defensive and kick-return touchdowns not included.

  Year  Pct
  2007  65%
  1999  65%
  2004  64%
  2001  64%
  1998  63%
  1995  63%
  1996  63%
  1994  63%
  1993  63%
  1987  63%
  2009  62%
  1997  62%
  1992  61%
  2000  61%
  2003  60%
  2006  60%
  1990  60%
  2002  60%
  1989  60%
  1988  60%
  1984  60%
  2005  60%
  1986  59%
  1983  59%
  1991  59%
  1980  58%
  1982  58%
  2008  58%
  1985  57%
  1981  57%

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