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I’ve got some numbers from our woulda-coulda research department. Numbers that became irrelevant when Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne couldn’t hook up at the New Orleans goal line on fourth down with a minute left.
If the Colts had scored there to pull to within 31-24, it would have set up a big onsides kick attempt. At our Super Bowl party, it started speculation about what the success rate might be on such an attempt.
It looks like, in ballpark terms, teams have been successful on about 25 percent of onsides kick attempts in the last four years – 52 out of 217.
If you figure that teams are less successful when opponents know that an attempt is coming, then maybe you roll that back to one out of five or one out of six. About 20 percent seems like a reasonable estimate.
ONSIDE KICK CONVERSION RATES, 2006-2009
Year KO Con
2006 47 13
2007 71 18
2008 54 11
2009 45 10
—Ian Allan
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