Ask the Experts
Posted Dec. 12 at 09:15 PM
ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly, with answers to a new question being posted every Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them:
Where will Tom Brady and Randy Moss show up on your overall draft board next season?
Considering a lot of owners were burned by running backs this season, I wouldn't argue with anyone who made Tom Brady the No. 1 selection in their fantasy draft. Brady has been the most consistent fantasy performer all year long and at this point, I would rank him as our top overall player. As for Moss, I would rank him in the top 5, but he would likely be behind LaDainian Tomlinson and Tony Romo -- just a very, very early projection.
Right now, on my overall draft board for next season they would be middle second round picks. The way most fantasy league scoring and rosters are set up it puts too much emphasis on running backs to rank them any higher at this point. Moss and Brady are both having career years and I don't believe they will match this year's stats next year. The NFL always finds a way of correcting itself and next year teams will figure a way to slow these two down.
Ramsay is the senior analyst for draftchamps.com. Draft Champs has been providing custom cheat sheets and value-based draft guides to the fantasy football community since 2003. For more info, visit www.draftchamps.com.
Both Brady and Moss will be keepers next year. The offseason will be very important as to their status. After four Super Bowls, aging teammates may retire and a depleted defense may hurt their stats. New England tends to replace players better than anyone, though, and with a possible top-3 pick, hoarded later picks and a great pipeline they could go for one for the thumb! If so, then Moss will be a top-10 if not top-5 pick. Brady will be around 10-20, and I will not get him, as the difference in average points between the top 10 quarterbacks each year is the smallest differential of any position.
While Tom Brady isn’t likely to have another season as he has enjoyed in 2007, he has earned an overall top ranking on par with Peyton Manning. The Patriot offense will probably retool and establish a stronger running game in 2008 but for the most part Brady and Moss are a successful marriage. In leagues smaller than 12 teams Brady is a first round selection, somewhere in the top 5. He could go anywhere in round one in 12-team leagues and should, certainly no lower than early second round. Randy Moss is a bona fide top-tier WR and will go accordingly, likely in the first round as well. With the way top RBs disappointed in 2007 I would not be surprised to see someone on the lower end of 10 team leagues trying to draft a Brady/Moss combo and forgo the RB position until pick No. 3. This shouldn’t be a problem in 12-team (or more) leagues but I’ll slot both of these guys inside the overall top 12.
Weatherford is owner/editor of www.coachbox.com, a fantasy football news and advice community online since 1997. Weatherford was author of the directory and technical editor for IDG Book’s Fantasy Sports Online For Dummies. He has been participating in magazine and expert panels since 1997 and has played fantasy football for over 20 years.
I expect Tom Brady will be my No. 1 quarterback, slightly ahead of Peyton Manning and Tony Romo. I’ll probably project him to finish with about 35 TD passes. It looks like there will be plenty of good quarterbacks available, including Carson Palmer and Drew Brees, and that supply-and-demand dynamic will hold down the value of all of those guys. As for Moss, he’s harder to project. He’ll be a free agent at the end of the year, so any projections on him right now have to factor in the possibility that he might be playing for a different team — perhaps a far lesser team. Moss also will be 31 in February and has had a lot of nagging injuries in recent years, which could drop him a few spots on my board. Right now, I would call Moss the favorite to lead the league in TD catches, but there are other guys who should finish with more yards and catches. Larry Fitzgerald, Braylon Edwards and Reggie Wayne are all younger receivers who certainly interest me. Steve Smith should be positioned to bounce back in a big way.
Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index magazine. He’s also one of the main content contributors for that company’s website, www.fantasyindex.com. His IAN ALLAN’S MAILBAG column is posted on Fridays.
Moss and Brady are both top 5 for sure. Still it will be interesting to see if Moss is compensated by the Patriots the way he will need to be after this season. The Pats are going to have to ante up huge money for Moss following this season.
Kamys is president of Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports. His company, via the web, offers player news, injury reports, cheat sheets, projections, weekly matchups, statistics, and a customized team tracker. Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports also e-mails preseason newsletters and reports throughout the season. For more info visit www.docstats.com or send e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Brady has been a consistent performer for years and his stats clearly have him in the top 3 of NFL QBs going into 2008. Moss was possibly one of the, if not the, biggest question mark entering the 2007 draft. He warrants entering the top 5 of WRs heading into 2008 with Brady and the New England offense.
Endsley is co-owner and a senior fantasy football consultant for FantasyDraftEdge.com. For more info, go to www.fantasydraftedge.com.
In the case of Brady, I won't get him, because I'll probably have him slotted about where I had Peyton Manning this year -- early second round or so. The odds are he'll be back at a reasonable level next year with the other top quarterbacks; it's not like Manning went out and threw 50 more TDs the year after he threw 49. Brady will come back to earth, especially if the team doesn't bring back Moss. As for Moss, he probably won't be on my team either, because I'll have him as a second-rounder and somebody will always take him earlier. I don't trust him to put up another year like the one he just had. Bottom line, they're both great talents, but my rankings will probably be based not on the numbers they just put up this year, but some sort of average per-game production for the previous few years. They're having a fantastic season, but I don't see it continuing through next year.
Richardson has been a columnist and contributor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and web site for the past six years. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections, as well as various site features. He has run the magazine's annual draft and auction leagues since their inception. Other writing credits have included FFToday.com and football coverage for newspapers in Colorado and Florida. For more information go to www.fantasyindex.com.
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