Ian Allan

What do we make of the Nate Burleson signing? The Lions gave him a surprising large contract -- $25 million for five years, with $11 million guaranteed. That’s big money.

The track record of free agent receivers, however, isn’t particularly strong.

Around here, I keep track of all of them on a year-to-year basis. For every year and every free agent, I assign him a “sizzle” grade – a number from 1 to 5, based on the expectations of how people generally feel he’ll do. When Terrell Owens joined the Eagles (or the Cowboys), that was a 5. When Randy Moss joined Oakland or New England, that was a 5. Down at No. 1, we’re talking about guys who’d never be drafted in any fantasy league. At a 2, we’re talking about guys who won’t be selected in most fantasy leagues.

In my opinion, a 3 is a player who’ll be a starter and probably be selected in fantasy league. A 4 is a player who’ll definitely be an NFL starter and be selected in most fantasy leagues. The two players I graded as 4s last year were Torry Holt and Laveranues Coles – guys who might be good, if everything fell into place. The two receivers who got sizzle grades of 5 last year were Owens and T.J. Houshmanzadeh.

Burleson will come in as a 4. As I looked at all of the other guys I’ve got graded as 4s over the last 17 years, however, the track record isn’t particularly good for those guys.

Over the years, I have put 47 different wide receivers in the grade-4 class. Of those group, only 13 have gone over 1,000 yards that next year, and only 14 have scored 7-plus TDs. The majority of them have put up lesser numbers (in that first year) than they did with their previous team.

Early guess for Burleson, therefore, might be about 700 yards and 5 TDs.


NATE BURLESON’S KIND OF GUYS, 1993-2009
How free agent wide receivers similar to Nate Burleson did in their first seasons, since the start of NFL free agency. I’ve got them in order from best to worst, using the fantasy scoring system of 6 points for TDs and 1 point for every 10 yards.

  No  Yds   TD  Year   
  84  1483   9  2005  Santana Moss (NYJ to Was)
  88  1195  11  1996  Irving Fryar (Mia to Phi)
  94  1340   8  2000  Joe Horn (KC to NO)
  104  1189  10  1995  Eric Metcalf (Cle to Atl)
  83  1139   9  2001  Jerry Rice (SF to Oak)
  76  1214   7  2005  Plaxico Burress (Pit to NYG)
  69  1084   9  2006  Javon Walker (GB to Den)
  77  1110   8  2007  Kevin Curtis (StL to Phi)
  80  1097   7  1999  Rocket Ismail (Car to Dal)
  72  1092   7  1997  Andre Rison (J-GB to KC)
  48   964   8  2008  Bernard Berrian (Chi to Min)
  70   981   6  2004  Keyshawn Johnson (TB to Dall)
  67  1037   5  1999  Tony Martin (Atl to Mia)
  63   833   8  2001  James Thrash (Was to Phi)
  64  1010   5  1993  Irving Fryar (NE to Mia)
  61   835   7  2008  Isaac Bruce (StL to SF)
  86  1073   3  2005  Derrick Mason (Ten to Bal)
  50   788   6  1996  Jeff Graham (Chi to NYJ)
  73   845   5  2005  Laveranues Coles (Was to NYJ)
  47   657   8  2004  Marcus Robinson (Bal to Minn)
  70   815   5  2006  Keyshawn Johnson (Dall to Car)
  50   798   4  1996  Quinn Early (NO to Buf)
  61   670   6  2002  Keenan McCardell (Jac to TB)
  38   725   5  2006  Donte Stallworth (NO to Phi)
  53   712   5  2000  Curtis Conway (Chi to SD)
  56   770   4  2004  Justin McCareins (Ten to NYJ)
  64   750   4  2005  Muhsin Muhammad (Car to Chi)
  53   725   4  2006  Deion Branch (NE to Sea)
  40   733   3  2006  Antonio Bryant (Cle to SF)
  43   514   5  2009  Laveranues Coles (NYJ to Cin)
  33   416   6  2004  Joey Galloway (Dall to TB)
  47   593   3  1996  Andre Rison (Cle to J-GB)
  41   636   2  1998  Bert Emanuel (Atl to TB)
  45   546   3  2008  Bryant Johnson (Ari to SF)
  51   722   0  2009  Torry Holt (StL to Jac)
  40   495   3  2006  Joe Jurevicius (Sea to Cle)
  44   462   3  2002  Qadry Ismail (Bal to Ind)
  32   351   4  2006  Antwaan Randle El (Pit to Was)
  34   414   1  1999  Charles Johnson (Pit to Phi)
  29   397   1  2002  Johnnie Morton (Det to KC)
  18   192   3  2006  Nate Burleson (Min to Sea)
  23   365   0  2006  Brandon Lloyd (SF to Was)
  19   271   1  1994  Mike Pritchard (Atl to Den)
  12   191   2  2001  Albert Connell (Was to NO)
  15   196   1  2008  Javon Walker (Den to Oak)
  8   104   0  2006  David Givens (NE to Ten)
    0    0   0  2004  David Boston (SD to Mia)

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