A bit about Tebow
Posted Mar. 19 at 10:18 PM
I don't want to spend a lot of time talking about Tim Tebow. Unless you're in a dynasty league, you don't need to care about the guy's draft prospects at all. Tebow himself would probably admit he needs some work before he actually starts for an NFL team, so redraft owners shouldn't spend any time thinking about him.
Then again, it's hard to ignore the guy when everyone else is talking about him. Chad Henne doesn't think he's an NFL quarterback. (Although he backed off that stance a day later.) Mike Holmgren has his doubts about Tebow's new and improved throwing motion, unveiled last week at Florida's Pro Day, saying "I just think in the heat of battle guys will usually revert." He added, "I think, and I told him this, that he was so thinking about his mechanics that at times it looked a little robotic."
That said, the Browns are one of five teams -- according to this article from The Sporting News -- that have scheduled workouts with Tebow between now and the draft. The others are the Bills, Seahawks, Patriots and Washington. (He's also reportedly been invited to the NFL draft, so someone apparently thinks he has a shot at being a first-round pick.)
Four of those five teams have a clear need for a starting quarterback, while the Patriots make sense as a team that could develop Tebow slowly, and not have to worry about any quarterback controversies while they're grooming him. They also have three second-round picks, and the general consensus right now (which I agree with) is that Tebow will be a second-round pick.
You hear a lot about Tebow being such a great athlete that he could play a variety of positions in the NFL: quarterback, H-back, receiver. I'm not buying. He's not going to be the fastest or strongest player on the field at the NFL level. I think he'll either land in a good situation to be developed as a quarterback (and Cleveland certainly qualifies with Holmgren running the show) or his NFL impact will be minimal.
In my dynasty league, his selection in my rookie draft will probably depend where he gets taken in the NFL. If he goes to a team with a clear void at quarterback, like Cleveland or Buffalo, I suspect he'll be a late first-round pick. If he goes to New England, or some place where he's most likely to be only a Wildcat quarterback for a couple of years, he won't be drafted until the second round, at the earliest.
Can he be a successful NFL quarterback? For now, I'll just say his chances of being a quarterback are a lot better than him contributing in a fantasy-relevant way at any other position. And for his sake, I hope he gets drafted by Cleveland, where he'll get good coaching, or New England, where he won't be pressured to contribute right away.
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