Ian Allan
I did a little study on this overtime rule. I looked at each of the overtime playoff games of the last decade.
By my count, there were 13 overtime playoff games in the last 10 years. I see four that definitely would have been affected by this new rule.
2009
Saints 31, Vikings 28
Recap: Saints get the ball and drive to the Vikings 22. Garrett Hartley wins the game with a 40-yard field goal.
Impact: New Orleans might have been more aggressive trying for a touchdown. Drew Brees threw an incompletion on third down; he might have been more aggressive with that throw. If New Orleans had stuck with the field goal, Minnesota would have had a chance to tie or win. Note, however, in the games below that Brett Favre threw interceptions on both of his other postseason possessions in this decade.
2009
Cardinals 51, Packers 45
Recap: Karlos Dansby wins the game with a 17-yard fumble return after Aaron Rodgers is sacked.
Impact: none.
2008
Chargers 23, Colts 17
Recap: On first-and-10 from the 35-yard line, the Chargers get a 15-yard facemask penalty to move them into position for a chip shot field goal. Then Darren Sproles wins the game with a 22-yard touchdown.
Impact: The Colts would have still been in the game with the ball deep in their territory. Had they held the Chargers to a field goal, the ball would have been in Peyton Manning’s hands down 3 for a final drive. With that possibility still in play, I think the Colts defense would have played better, and Sproles would not have won the game on that run.
2007
Giants 23, Packers 20
Recap: Green Bay got the ball first. Brett Favre threw an interception. Lawrence Tynes somehow managed to kick a frozen ball 47 yards for the winning field goal.
Impact: none (unless with the unusual weather conditions, the Packers would have chosen to kick off rather than receive).
2006
Bears 27, Seahawks 24
Recap: Seattle had the ball first. Chicago won on a field goal after an 18-yard punt set them up in good field position.
Impact: none.
2004
Jets 20, Chargers 17
Recap: Both teams had the ball twice in overtime. (Nate Kaeding missed a 40-yard field goal that would have won it). Jets win on Doug Brien field goal.
Impact: none.
2004
Steelers 20, Jets 17
Recap: Jeff Reed field goal wins it after New York punts on first possession.
Impact: none.
2003
Packers 33, Seahawks 27
Recap: On Seattle’s first possession, Matt Hasselbeck throws an interception that is returned for a touchdown.
Impact: none.
2003
Panthers 29, Rams 23
Recap: Steve Smith catches a 69-yard touchdown to win it on the first play of the second overtime.
Impact: none.
2003
Eagles 20, Packers 17
Recap: Eagles punted on first possession. Brett Favre throws an interception. Then David Akers wins it with a 31-yard field goal.
Impact: none.
2002
Titans 34, Steelers 31
Recap: Tennessee gets the ball, drives 46 yards to the Pittsburgh 13, then sets up to win it with a Joe Nedney chip shot on second down.
Impact: Titans would have been more aggressive trying to get the ball in the end zone. Steelers might have gotten a chance to tie or win.
2001
Patriots 20, Raiders 17
Recap: Patriots get the ball, drive it down to the Oakland 7, then position it for Adam Vinatieri to win it with a chip shot.
Impact: New England would have been more aggressive trying to score a touchdown. If they settled for a field goal, Rich Gannon would have had a chance to put together a historic drive.
2000
Dolphins 23, Colts 17
Recap: Miami got it first in overtime and punted. Colts came back and Mike Vanderjagt missed a 49-yard field goal. The Dolphins won it on the next drive, with Lamar Smith scoring a 17-yard touchdown run.
Impact: none.
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Posted by Timothy Concannon | Mar. 25 at 01:35 AM
Ian, do you think these new rules will have an impact on how coaches make the decision to receive or kickoff? I feel that some teams may risk allowing a TD if it gives them the advantage of being able use 4th down after allowing a FG. Also, do you have the numbers on how often teams score a TD after a kickoff?
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Mar. 25 at 02:15 AM
I've got a press release from the league in front of me. It says that from 1994 through 2009, there were 244 regular-season games; 62 of those games (25 percent) were decided by a touchdown, but it does not spell out how many of those touchdowns were scored on opening possessions. That 25 percent includes defensive and special teams touchdowns, as well as touchdowns scored after the first possession. So this new rule dramatically changes the value of the coin flip. I'm not sure whether teams will elect to kick off or receive. In a defensive-type game, with few touchdowns, that second team could potentially win with a field goal or at least have the advantage of working with four downs to tie.