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Fantasy Index Reader Column

Most who play fantasy football started recently, after the late 90's Internet/fantasy sports boom. Most will do a little research before they start. What's the first thing they read? "Stock up on running backs." "It's all about the running backs." "To win in fantasy football, you must have good running backs." So, of course, everyone drafts running backs in round 1. Most continue to draft running backs in Round 2. This appears to make running backs even more valuable. They're so scarce, so much harder to find good ones, that people are even more hysterical about making sure they get those cornerstone, stud running backs.

There's only one problem with this picture. As of right now, there are less than a handful of true cornerstone, stud running backs. Let us count them: 1) LaDanian Tomlinson, 2) Larry Johnson, 3) Shaun Alexander, 4) Rudi Johnson. That's it. Most will argue that guys like Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, and Willie Parker should be on this list. They shouldn't. Not yet anyway. None of them have put up back-to-back stud RB seasons. Until that happens, they don't count in my mind. They're on the cusp, but they're still in the stud RB waiting room until they do it again. I'm not saying don't draft them, but let's be realistic too. Gore has a lengthy injury history, Jackson's running style lends itself to injuries as well, and Parker will probably lose goal-line carries while also dealing with a new coaching staff. Looking over NFL history, there are quite a few running backs who have put up one or two good seasons only to fall off of the radar completely. So let's not overvalue them either. They're the best of the rest with great potential, but you don't want to pin your hopes solely on them.

Let me be the first to say it: Running backs are overvalued. There, I said it. Sure, the potential gains are great with the Gores, Jacksons, and Parkers of the world. But when I start seeing names like Joseph Addai, Laurence Maroney, and Ronnie Brown listed in top tens, I have to just shake my head. Are you kidding me? I'm supposed to gamble on one of those guys over, say, Peyton Manning? Or Steve Smith? I don't think so. You only get one first-round pick, so you better not blow it. How many took Ronnie Brown in their draft last year? Think those players are going to be willing to gamble a first-round pick on him again this year, after being burned last season? I won't be, that's for sure.

The reality is that drafting running backs ain't what it used to be. Defensive players keep getting bigger and stronger at a rate greater than running backs are. In fact, running backs and skill position players in general are heading in the opposite direction. The new breed of offensive player is small and quick. Reggie Bush, Steve Smith, Ted Ginn Jr., etc. They're taking bigger hits and greater punishment. So how do coaches adjust? The two headed monster. Having two running backs is now in vogue amongst NFL teams. Not just having them, but using them almost equally.

It reminds me of a league I was in a few years back. (I had to look it up, it was 2001.) Charlie Garner, fresh off a big season in San Francisco, signed a free agent deal with the Raiders. It was a curious move, since Oakland already had Tyrone Wheatley, who was coming off a pretty solid season himself. They were being coy during preseason about naming a starting running back. Thinking I was clever, I took both of them in back-to-back picks. I thought, "This is great! Whomever becomes the starter, it doesn't matter. I'll have them both." I'm sure you know how the story ended. They split carries and both were mediocre. My brilliant strategy had blown up in my face. Kinda like when I drafted Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney last year. Two guys do not make a stud RB. They add up to two mediocre running backs. Remember that when you're patting yourself on the back for drafting both Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. Unless one of them gets injured or really, really sucks, you're gonna be stuck with two guys splitting up the stats of one position.

Running backs, like closers in fantasy baseball, also come out of nowhere more often. How many drafted Willie Parker two years ago? Or Travis Henry last season? How about Maurice Jones-Drew? In one of my leagues, I was able to pick up Frank Gore on waivers the week before the season started (I'd like to say I knew he'd be that good. I just figured he was worth the price, which was cutting Antonio Bryant. I'd say it was a sound decision.). I remember picking up Domanick Davis when he was a rookie. Hell, I even remember the mad scramble to pick up Barry Foster back in the day (if you're under 20, look up his 1992 stat line. The touchdowns look tame by today's standards, but he was huge that year.) There's a decent chance that two, maybe even more, solid, play-every-week RB's will go undrafted in your league. The key is picking them up before they blow up, not after. If I had waited to see how Gore played in Week 1, I wouldn't have gotten him. When I picked up Davis in 2003, I remember seeing that he had gotten the bulk of the carries the previous game. He hadn't done anything with them (20 for 60 or something) but the fact that he was getting most of the carries put him on my radar. I decided to pick him up when another player got injured and Davis blew up the game after I picked him up. Again, you need to act before they blow up.

If you aren't fortunate enough to land one of the true studs, don't panic and draft some crumbum RB that has proven nothing in the NFL simply because everyone else is. Take Peyton Manning. Or Steve Smith. Or Torry Holt, Chad Johnson, or Carson Palmer. I would much rather take a proven performer who I know is going to produce than talk myself into thinking, "Yeah, Joseph Addai could really break out in that offense. He could put up 2,000 combined yards and score 20 touchdowns!" I guess he could. He also might average 3.5 yards per carry, score around 5 touchdowns, and stumble his way to barely 1,200 total yards. Most don't like to consider the latter option. In my mind, it's a lot more likely than the former. Don't let the poison of unrealistic optimism allow your fantasy team to crash and burn. Stick to the names you know. The time has come to wean ourselves off of our running back addiction. People might laugh. You may be ridiculed. Still, I'd rather start my team with a duo of Steve Smith and Torry Holt than Ronnie Brown and Reggie Bush. Call me crazy.

Andrew Conlon
Catonsville, Md.

Reader Columns are submitted by Fantasy Football Index readers. Opinions expressed in Reader Columns are not endorsed by the publishers of Fantasy Football Index. We're just contributing to the marketplace of ideas. Learn more about how to submit your own reader column.

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