Not so fast on Kevin Kolb
Posted May. 15 at 06:32 AM
I saw that Kevin Kolb was the 9th quarterback selected in a mock draft on Thursday, and that Andy Richardson called that a “nice value”, suggesting that Kolb probably would go higher in most drafts. I don’t see it.
I like Kolb as much as the next guy. He’s taking over in Philadelphia, and they have all the great receivers. He passed for over 300 yards in both of his games last year. I get that.
But aren’t we getting a little ahead of ourselves? Can this guy actually play?
No way, in my opinion, does Kolb deserve a spot in the top 10 quarterbacks. There are just too many other really good ones out there. Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler – proven guys. I think it’s possible that Kolb will outperform some of those guys, but with the risk and limited reward, I’m not even considering him at that point.
One concern I have with Kolb is interceptions. Donovan McNabb was one of the best at avoiding interceptions, but Kolb looks like that could be a problem area for him. He hardly played in 2008 (34 pass attempts) but managed to throw 4 interceptions. And he tossed 3 more interceptions last year in the game against the Saints. Kolb managed to avoid throwing an interception in his other start, but that was against Kansas City, which has no pass rush and no secondary.
By my count, only three quarterbacks in the last two years have played more than Kolb and thrown interceptions at a higher rate – Sage Rosenfels and rookies Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman. This could be an issue for him.
What if Kolb isn’t the guy? Isn’t that a possibility? If it goes down that way, Michael Vick could replace him in October.
In a normal year, Kolb might get in the top 10 quarterbacks, but not this year – not with so many good, proven ones out there.
HIGHEST PERCENTAGE OF INTERCEPTIONS, 2008-2009
Players with at least 130 pass attempts:
Att Int Pct
290 18 6.21% Josh Freeman
174 10 5.75% Sage Rosenfels
364 20 5.49% Mark Sanchez
130 7 5.38% Kevin Kolb
377 20 5.31% Matthew Stafford
301 15 4.98% Gus Frerotte
231 11 4.76% J.T. O’Sullivan
272 12 4.41% Daunte Culpepper
735 30 4.08% Jake Delhomme
697 27 3.87% Matt Hasselbeck
465 18 3.87% Derek Anderson
184 7 3.80% Brian Griese
1171 44 3.76% Jay Cutler
171 6 3.51% Bruce Gradkowski
176 6 3.41% Kyle Boller
428 14 3.27% Tyler Thigpen
372 12 3.23% Alex Smith
599 19 3.17% Ryan Fitzpatrick
255 8 3.14% Dan Orlovsky
614 19 3.09% JaMarcus Russell
557 17 3.05% Trent Edwards
295 9 3.05% Vince Young
463 14 3.02% Chad Henne
595 17 2.86% Carson Palmer
885 25 2.82% Matt Ryan
975 27 2.77% Ben Roethlisberger
687 19 2.77% Marc Bulger
1053 29 2.75% Brett Favre
1009 27 2.68% Matt Cassel
345 9 2.61% Brady Quinn
963 25 2.60% Matt Schaub
927 24 2.59% Joe Flacco
1111 28 2.52% Kurt Warner
1126 28 2.49% Peyton Manning
1149 28 2.44% Drew Brees
988 24 2.43% Eli Manning
1006 24 2.39% Kyle Orton
631 15 2.38% Kerry Collins
1000 23 2.30% Tony Romo
576 13 2.26% Tom Brady
443 10 2.26% Shaun Hill
1051 23 2.19% David Garrard
143 3 2.10% Byron Leftwich
1014 21 2.07% Donovan McNabb
1013 21 2.07% Jason Campbell
964 20 2.07% Philip Rivers
1077 20 1.86% Aaron Rodgers
550 9 1.64% Chad Pennington
376 6 1.60% Jeff Garcia
138 2 1.45% Matt Moore
362 5 1.38% Seneca Wallace
170 2 1.18% Tarvaris Jackson
Posted by DAVID DIGREGORIO | May. 15 at 07:01 AM
The Philly sports guys don't like Vick, and are surprised that he is still on the team. They don't think he can step in and run Reid's offense. There is little chance that he'll replace Kolb. Kolb has a quicker release and is more accurate on the short throws than McNabb was. These skills are highlighted with Reid's system. And with the talent Kolb is throwing to, he should be very good. Considering that Reid is compulsive when it comes to throwing the ball, and that he has a great track record when it comes to qbs, I'm going high on Kolb this year. I especially like Kolb in challenge games, where interceptions aren't penalized and his salary is low (fanball has salaries out already). I also think he'll have a high ypc average because he'll be better able than McNabb was to hit his receivers in stride. I hope I am not doomed by Kolb psychosis, but I think top 10 is a minimum you can expect from him.
Posted by IAN ALLAN | May. 15 at 07:29 AM
I'm not a big Vick fan. I don't think he throws well enough. My concern with Kolb primarily is that I'm not sure he's any good. Maybe he winds up being good and a top-10 quarterback, but not way would I take him before a proven commodity like Matt Ryan.
Posted by DAVID GARRICK | May. 15 at 08:40 AM
Ian, you made the bold moves of putting Tatum Bell on the cover and ranking Cutler in the top 5 before his third year. In my opinion, Kolb is much safer than either of those moves. Andy Reid has seen enough in practice to turn things over to this kid, and there is no coach I have more confidence in when it comes to QB evaluation. You will be doing FFI readers a disservice if you rank Kolb 13 or 14, which seems like your plan. Kolb has been incubated by a great staff who knows how to call plays, and the skill position guys are explosive and talented. Paranoid guys don't win fantasy leagues. Rank Kolb below only Rodgers, Brees, Peyton, Romo, Rivers & Brady and you'll help many of your readers win their leagues this year.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | May. 15 at 09:22 AM
I actually have Kolb 10th in my own rankings, so when I said "good value for somebody," I guess it was just average value. In the experts draft for the magazine, conducted today, he was the 10th QB drafted.
Posted by Joe Savitsky | May. 15 at 10:05 AM
I can easily see Kolb struggling with interceptions. He is a quick release gunslinger type of QB and sometimes he'll read the coverage wrong or tip his hat to the secondary, resulting in picks. But to suggest that Andy Reid might bench Kolb and hand over the reins of his offense to Mike Vick... well, that's just not going to happen. And as long as Kolb is starting for that offense, he will put up fantasy points. A lot depends on how your league's scoring system handles interceptions.
Posted by Brian Grzybowski | May. 15 at 03:47 PM
I feel like there is some evidence that Andy Reid's system can make a QB look better than they actually are- over a short period of time. I keep thinking about 2002 when McNabb got hurt. In comes Koy Detmer and I remember that DURING the game that Detmer looked so good that Philly fans were saying that they didn't need McNabb anymore! Then Detmer gets hurt and out trots A.J. Feeley. Feeley finishes up that victory and then reels off 4 more wins and Philly fans are wondering why this bum, McNabb, is still on the team when these two guys have been sitting behind him. I also remember Jeff Garcia essentially resurrecting his career in 2006. The Eagles are sitting at 5-6 when McNabb messes up his knee running out of bounds. Garcia comes in and attempts a gazillion passes in a partial game with no interceptions. He then wins all the remaining games and the Eagles win the division. But I don't think any of these guys could keep it up over an extended period of time- sooner or later Defensive Coordinators figure out what Reid is asking the QBs too do. Certainly none of these guys ever had this level of success on teams after they left the Eagles. Because of these scenarios, it is difficult for me to trust that Kevin Kolb is the real deal. Sure, he was throwing the ball all over the place in a couple games last year but this system made all of these other guys look great...for a little while.
Posted by IAN ALLAN | May. 15 at 05:54 PM
I think these guys leading the parade for Kolb are underestimating the value of experience. Look at the historical numbers and check to see how much better guys like Philip Rivers, Drew Brees and Brett Favre got entering their third seasons. Kolb has started two games. I would much rather have Ryan or Flacco, who know have had a chance to see a lot of different defenses. I like Kolb fine. In other years, with fewer top passers available, I would have him in my top 10. But I'm not putting him ahead of Ryan or Flacco.
Posted by Matthew Kenerly | May. 18 at 08:36 AM
I think it's relevant to point out that he threw for 321 yards against a lousy Kansas City defense, and that it took him 51 attempts and 3 INTs to get to 391 yards against New Orleans... a game the Eagles lost by 26. We'll probably know pretty quickly what kind of QB he is, but I think I'd let someone else take that risk.
Posted by IAN ALLAN | May. 18 at 03:07 PM
Thank you Matthew Kenerly. A voice of reason.
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