Early ADP reaches, steals
Posted Jun. 15 at 11:04 PM
Almost everyone likes mock drafts, 'cause it's fun to see how other people value players. An extension of that is the average draft position (ADP) reports, which are typically drawn from hundreds of mock drafts.
I spend a lot of time on the internet, so I scan these every now and again. (You can find them with an easy search; here's one I like because it's nice and colorful, and I'm a sucker for bright and shiny things.) A few observations:
Tony Romo at 4.03. Romo in the fourth round looks like quite a bargain to me. Look at the wide receivers on the board around where Peyton Manning is going at 2.08 compared to the ones left when Romo goes off the board. I would gladly select, say, Roddy White and Romo rather than Peyton and....Ochocinco?
Michael Crabtree at 4.09. OK, we were probably too cool on Crabtree's long-term prospects a year ago. But is he really a fourth-round pick this year? San Francisco isn't going to emphasize the pass and it's difficult for me to terribly enthused by Alex Smith. I also don't see him as the top second-year wideout, which brings me to....
Jeremy Maclin at 7.09. Maybe someone can explain to me what I'm missing on Maclin. He averaged 5 catches for 73 yards in his last six games -- numbers that work out to an 80-catch, 1,150-yard season -- then went off for 7-for-146 in the playoffs. He'll see lesser coverage than DeSean Jackson. Sure, he has a new quarterback, but Kolb is being drafted in the sixth round, so there can't be too many doubts about him. And Maclin's being selected three rounds after Crabtree? And after Devin Aromashodu? Seriously? I'm mystified, but it looks like I'll have him in almost every league I'm in this year.
Jets defense at 8.05. OK, any defense in the eighth round is a little crazy. There's just enough separation at the position to warrant that. And then there's the fact that even while being an elite NFL defense for much of last season -- ranking No. 1 in both yards and points allowed -- the Jets were (depending on scoring system) barely a top-10 fantasy defense. Assuming this Darrelle Revis ugliness gets resolved, New York will be a great defense again, and an improved fantasy one. But that's awfully high for them.
Houston running backs. Arian Foster finished last season -- and started this preseason -- as Houston's starter, and did fairly well in the role. This does not mean he's a desirable get, but there's enough uncertainty about how the team's tailback situation will shake out that I'd much rather be selecting Foster at 13.06 than Ben Tate (6.08) or Steve Slaton (7.12). They're being drafted in the order they're likely to start, perhaps, but I'd definitely favor the longer odds but far, far less risk in terms of draft position of Foster.
Finally, a general observation: It's nice to think about taking wide receivers and quarterbacks early. But I think you're still basically required to draft two running backs in the first four rounds, if you want to have any degree of certainty about your starters. The alternative is drafting a whole lot of running backs in the middle rounds, which will probably mean passing on quality at wide receiver, tight end and quarterback in favor of sketchy running backs who might never be usable as starters.
Because based on ADP, the last running back who seems certain to get a majority of the carries is Beanie Wells, selected at 3.12. After that you're facing possible crowded committees (LeSean McCoy, the Dallas runners), injury worries (Ronnie Brown), backups (Jonathan Stewart), and total uknowns (the rookie backs). Will there be good starters there? Yes. But there will also be some totally unusable selections.
At a glance, my guess is that in most drafts I'll be going RB, WR, RB, QB, WR, WR with my top six picks. And that sixth pick, in almost every draft, will probably be Jeremy Maclin.
Posted by DAVID DIGREGORIO | Jun. 16 at 12:01 AM
Benson 2.10 and D. Jackson 2.11? Benson scores a TD about every third game. I will not be owning Benson this year. Steve Smith (Car) in the fourth round seems real cheap to me. And my unrequited man crush on Finley 5.09 will not be fulfilled. I've been looking at his rankings and there is much disagreement. He seems to get ranked between 4th and 10th. I can only hope.
Posted by Eugene Hitt | Jun. 16 at 12:44 AM
The Maclin onfo is very interesting as I also think that its going to be next to impossible for DJAX to score 8 50 yards TD's again. I disagree about Beanie though, the guy has historically spent as much time on the trainers table, (college and Pro)as on the field AND he can't pass block. Hightower is a good goaline runner as well. Why is everyone so high on Shonn Greene? He reminds me on Ahmad Bradshaws rookie year. Anyone who watched Jets games last year saw this guy consistently put the ball on the ground game after game. L.T. is a sleeper for the first time since his rookie year!
Posted by Duane Stay | Jun. 16 at 09:39 AM
Eugene, Your comments on Shonn Greene is very interesting. The Fantasy Index experts draft that I recently had the honor of participating in, had Shonn Greene available with the 12th pick in the first round. I could have had Greene and Mendenhall with my first two picks. I chose to take Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne instead. I knew Manning and Wayne wouldn't be available by the time I had two more picks. I have to have proof that these two RB's are for real before I take them that high. I know what Manning and Wayne can do. My third and fourth picks, I took more chances, because I had to have RB's. LeSean McCoy and Felix Jones are RB's that I took a chance on. They could prove to be as good as Greene and Mendenhall. If McCoy and Jones stay healthy, I feel they will be my bonus, because Manning and Wayne will be a consistent duo.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Jun. 16 at 11:35 AM
I agree Greene's probably going a little too early, especially since he definitely won't be on the field in passing situations. Still, he should get at least 2/3 of the rushing attempts for a team that led the league in rushing a year ago. Thomas Jones put up 1400 yards and 14 TDs last year, so that's not unreasonable for Greene. As for Wells, I didn't say I was targeting him as a starter this year, just that he's about the last guy you can look at and say, He'll get the majority of the carries this year. Maybe LeSean McCoy. But most of the next round or two of running backs there's a lot less certainty. Injuries are a factor with Wells though, agreed.
Posted by Eugene Hitt | Jun. 17 at 01:14 PM
Duane, Maybe I'm partial to Mendenhall and Maclin, (I have them as keepers next year...) But even if Mendenhall doesn't completely breakout, the guys behind him will give him alot of rope before he hangs himself. I think that LT as a #3 or 4 RB is a steal and may win some teams,(mine) a championship this season. Your comments about Felix Jones are especially intruiging to me though. Do you really think he has #1 RB upside this year? Would you draft him over say... Ronnie Brown or Joe addai in a standard scoring league as your #2 RB? And what does that say for Marion the Barbarian? Andy, Living in NY, I'm "forced" to watch my share of Jet games, and I'll tell you, that T.Jones had the slowest, plodding 1400 yards I've ever seen. Green's inability to crack the lineup in the regular season is a huge red flag for me. With all of the Offensive weapons they brought in this year, you'd think that the starting RB there is going to need to know how to pass block and catch, right?
Posted by Eugene Hitt | Jun. 17 at 01:15 PM
Thanks for the feed back guys, this is why this is the best fantasy football website there is.
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