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Andy Richardson


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See You Next Year

Posted Jan. 21 at 08:52 AM

Yesterday was the last true Day of Football of the season, if you consider that the Super Bowl is only somewhat about football, far more about the spectacle. Two weeks of talking about Brady, Eli, Belichick, and whether the point spread is valid or not isn't exactly talking about the game, and the game itself usually gets lost in a sea of debate over how much a 30-second ad costs and who's performing at the halftime show. But yesterday, there was football, and what a day it was....

Chargers-Patriots: Hey, the Chargers scored four times and the Patriots only three. Tom Brady threw more interceptions than gimpy Philip Rivers. And yet, there was a certain inexorable inevitability to the Patriots winning this game, right from the Chargers scoring first -- like every losing AFC team this postseason -- through to the Chargers getting in scoring position repeatedly and yet never coming that close to actually scoring a touchdown.

There's a lot of talk about injuries, and certainly the Chargers would have been more dangerous offensively with LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates out there at 100 percent than on the sidelines. But, I tend to think the Patriots would have just scored more often if they needed to. They seemed to realize they'd only lose by serving up some defensive touchdowns, so they played fairly conservatively and did just enough to win -- as they have since around midseason.

From a fantasy perspective, there are a few things that can be said or guessed from this game. Laurence Maroney proved this postseason that he can carry a large workload if necessary, which is a good thing; certainly he looked pretty good against the Chargers. The bad news, though, is that it worked out so well for the Patriots -- using him in a limited capacity all season, then leaning on him in the playoffs -- that you wonder if things will be any different for Maroney next season. Sammy Morris, Heath Evans and Kevin Faulk (or some other back) will still be around. Randy Moss' quiet postseason (at least until he goes off in the Super Bowl) makes him look a little risky as an early fantasy pick next year, although most owners will take that chance anyway; it's not like shutting Moss down helped Jacksonville or San Diego win.

For the Chargers, it was a nice step forward, I think, for Rivers, who showed some toughness on the field to help offset his mouthiness on the sidelines. I can't fault Tomlinson and Gates for being injured. And it now looks like Michael Turner will definitely be an unrestricted free agent, since there's no way San Diego will franchise a guy who looked like the team's third-best running back down the stretch, or get a great pick for him. I guess he'll be starting somewhere next year, but he's not as attractive as he was a year ago. Otherwise, the future looks bright for the Chargers: They lost to a better team, but maybe next year, they'll be better.

Giants-Packers: I try not to make a big deal about it in my writing, but anyone who knows me knows I'm a pretty big Packers fan. So I'm kind of bummed by my team being upset in the playoffs, at home, and in overtime no less. It would have been better if the Giants had just made the kick at the end of regulation and been done with it.

That said, no one who watched the game can reasonably say (as Wade Phillips ridiculously contended after the Cowboys lost) that the better team didn't win. The Giants may not have been better all season, but they were dramatically better Sunday, running the ball, passing the ball, playing defense, returning kicks, recovering two of their own fumbles, picking off Favre twice. Just better. The running game that made the difference for Green Bay the second half of the season was non-existent -- and the Packers didn't have the ball enough to establish any kind of offensive presence. If one team continually moves the ball on lengthy drives while the other keeps going three and out, you're fortunate to even get to overtime.

Fantasy-wise, Eli Manning will now probably be over-drafted next year -- he's more likely to have another year like this one than suddenly end up in Peyton territory. Not because he's not good (he is), but because the Giants will continue, assuming Steve Spagnola sticks around and the personnel remains essentially the same, to run the ball and play good defense, winning games with Manning throwing for 200ish yards and 1-2 TDs -- tops. Plaxico Burress, however, will probably be under-drafted; imagine if he were healthy all year. He was basically uncoverable yesterday. Ahmad Bradshaw looks like a nice sleeper pick, with Brandon Jacobs still an injury risk, although it might depend how Derrick Ward fits in there.

Is Brett Favre coming back? Probably. Will he be as good next year as he was this year? Tough to say. I've got to think that the ending to this season will serve to remind the coaching staff that reining Favre in can't just be something the media talks about and the team does every once in a while. In big games against good teams -- the game at Dallas, the Giants game yesterday -- what happens when they forget the running game? They lose. Yeah, the run was going nowhere against the Giants, but you've still got to give it more of a chance. The team had too few offensive plays, period, but they definitely had too few running plays and too few short, safe throws -- too many shots downfield that both the conditions and (perhaps) the way the offense was handling them were working against. Assuming Favre returns, I think Grant will be huge next year. They could have a productive third-down back, too, perhaps Brandon Jackson (who showed signs of it late in the year). A great season for Favre and the passing offense, but I think things will be a little different next year. If they want to win a close game in bad weather in December and January, they'll have to be.

So it's on to the Super Bowl that some wanted, and as far as I'm concerned the smart money is on the Giants -- not to WIN, but to cover the 2-TD point spread, anyway. It's not just because they played the Patriots close in week 17, although that's part of it. Primarily it's because EVERYBODY played the Patriots close since about that Eagles game -- when was the last time the Patriots even covered? (Miami, perhaps?) The Patriots are undefeated, sure, but somewhere along the line the idea of them being unbeatable and all the running up the score talk took hold of the public consciousness and people believe they can win easily whenever they want to. I don't think that's the case; I think it will be a game -- even though the Patriots will probably win.

As a Packers fan, the season ended in disappointment for me, and that's true for most NFL fans, and probably most fantasy owners -- arguably, 11 out of 12 in most leagues. The tough thing is that although part of you thinks, well, the Packers will be next year, or the Staggering Elks will be back next year, or whatever your NFL or fantasy team is, most of us also know that such isn't always the case. The Saints went from a conference championship game loss last season to out of the playoffs the next, and that could certainly happen for the Packers and Chargers too -- nothing is guaranteed. It's why football is great, and why it's so hard to lose. Tough as the playoff losses are, it's even tougher to get into that position in the first place.

Which is why you have to try and forget that last loss. Remember, instead, the last win. Take that, Seattle! 42-20! Packers win!

And now the season is over.

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