2010 Speed Bump 4 – The Eli Manning Poll
Posted Jul. 29 at 02:08 AM
Last year's fourth poll featured Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning in "The Eli Manning Poll" and we'll make the same stop this year at poll number four. Eli Manning did his part last year – he joined the 4,000-yard club and tossed a career-best 27 TDs. He didn't get a ton of love in the poll though. While Manning did get the most of the votes of the four QBs featured at 35% of the vote - 65% of the vote went to Trent Edwards, David Garrard and Kyle Orton. That was a rag-a-tag set compared to the lethal trio Manning stares down in this year's poll, each of these three young QBs have a reasonable chance to be the 45th QB in NFL history to collect 4,000 yards passing in a season. The 4,000 seasons are easily at all-time NFL record-levels right now, producing a seismic shift in fantasy passing stats. The NFL's first 4,000 yard passer was Joe Namath in 1967. There wouldn't be another for 12 seasons (Dan Fouts, 1979). There were 14 4,000-yard seasons in the 1980s (including four by Dan Marino), 22 in the 1990s (including four by Warren Moon) – and then Y2K hit. The past decade saw 46 4,000-yard seasons. Peyton owns the record with 10 seasons, followed by Brett Favre and Warren Moon each with six. Last season shattered the NFL record with TEN QBs claiming a 4,000 yard passing status in a single season.
As we'll come back to when we release our "2010 Rogue Lifevest Teams", the wait-on-a-QB strategy if played correctly can pay huge dividends. In 2010, it lands Eli Manning on average as the 12th QB off the board. Eli just gets no props. Of the set, Eli is the Super Bowl MVP and the reigning 4,000-yard passer yet he comes in last of the four in ADP rankings (MFL) behind Kevin Kolb (#9), Matt Ryan (#10) and Joe Flacco (#11). Eli averaged a solid 251 yards per game last year and career-best 27 TDs. While Manning didn't put up big passing yards the year prior in 2008 (as the Giants had the #1 rushing attack in the NFL that year) he had cut his interceptions in half from the prior season and set a career-best QB rating at 86.4. Eli parlayed that into bigger success last season with 4,021 yards and a 93.1 QB rating. Heck, Eli was even great in December with 9 TDs to 3 INTs and a 107.4 QB rating for the month. Eli has never missed a game in college or the NFL. Come on, anyone going to show Eli Manning some love in this poll? It's a stout set however.
Exit Donovan McNabb, enter Kevin Kolb. On the Rogue dynasty forum boards, Kevin Kolb-owners quickly reached frenzy levels in March on the news of suddenly cashing in on what many believe is or will/can be "the next Aaron Rodgers". There isn't a lot of data points but in two games started last year Kolb instantly lit up New Orleans for 391 in Week 2 and then added 327 in Week 3 – and then sat as the team went back to Donovan McNabb after the Eagles' Week 4 bye. The "sleeper" on many a-site/magazine this year, we'll at least make Kolb work for it here in this poll. There's seemingly not much to slow down the Kevin Kolb train but we'll offer this. All-in, he'll still just a QB with two career starts and a 68.9 QB-rating. He lit it up last year but the Eagles needed points on the Saints and the other game was against the 30th-ranked Kansas City defense in Philadelphia. Oddly enough, Kolb is the highest of these QBs ranked on MFL average draft data but is the lowest in magazines on average.
Entering his 3rd NFL season, the 3rd pick of the 2007 NFL Draft: Matt Ryan. The 6-4 Ryan has certainly lived up to expectations. Ryan won the 2008 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year Award with 3,440 passing yards and a 16-11 TD/INT ratio, flipping the team from 4-12 to 11-5 in one season with rookie head coach Mike Smith. Ryan's yardage total dropped last season to 2,916 in 14 games played and dropped a little on a per game level from his rookie season (from 215 per game to 208). Ryan's rating also dropped off, from 87.7 as a rookie (truly amazing for a rookie QB) to 80.9 last year. Atlanta is a rushing team but they were surprisingly 14th in the NFL last year in passing attempts, versus 10th for Philadelphia, 11th for the Giants and 18th for Baltimore. Starting week 1 as a rookie, Ryan has been sacked just 36 times in two seasons and the offense returns intact.
Last, but certainly not necessarily least, entering his 3rd NFL season, the 18th pick of the 2007 NFL Draft: Joe Flacco. Likely slipped to the 2nd round of dynasty rookie drafts that year, Flacco has turned into a gem of a dynasty pick. As a rookie he became the first rookie QB in NFL history to win two games in the playoffs. Last season, Flacco excelled across-the-board. While Baltimore was #5 in rushing, Flacco nonetheless had 499 pass attempts (up 14%), 3,613 passing yards (600+ more than the prior season, an 18% increase), and his passing TDs were up 50% from 14 to 21. That was with arguably the worst set of receivers in the league. Derrick Mason has been serviceable as a #1 receiver (although the 35-year old barley cracked a 1,000 yards last year and was the #17 fantasy WR), but the rest of the set was brutal – Mark Clayton, Kelley Washington, Demetrius Williams, Todd Heap. Yuk. Flacco welcomes Anquan Boldin to the Ravens. It's a marquee signing for a team in need of a legit #1 WR. Even including missed games (Boldin has been OUT 18% of his career), Boldin averages 84 catches, 1,074 yards and 6 TDs per season.
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Posted by KEVIN WEAKLAND | Jul. 30 at 01:53 PM
I like Eli up until December anyway when the weather gets real bad. He's got real good weapons. As a matter of fact I think Nicks is this years version of D Jackson. Kolb on the other hand hasn't proven anything yet. No one knows how he's going to react after getting punched in the mouth for a few games in a row. No one knows how composed he'll be in the pocket with the pressure on. All this hype reminds me of how people went bonkors over Cutler in Chicago last year. I'm just not buying it.
Posted by DAVID DIGREGORIO | Jul. 31 at 09:16 PM
FYI. I did 3 mock drafts. I got Cutler in the 10th round in two of them. Rothlisberger isn't even being drafted. Not a bad combination for the price.
Posted by Jason Turner | Aug. 01 at 03:58 PM
Kevin Kolb is a a riskier pick here, but he probably has the most upside out of this group. I think you saw about the best Eli is going to do last season. Matt Ryan is in more of a run based offense much like Flacco, whereas the Eagles passed the ball 62% of the time last year. None of the other QB's here have the explosive big play reciever that Kolb has in DeSean Jackson, who is able to take it to the house from anywhere. Toss in a more experienced Jeremy Maclin, Brent Celek, and LeSean McCoy coming out of the backfield and Kolb could be in the best situation to throw 30 TD's here.
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