Ask the Experts
Posted Aug. 04 at 10:05 PM
ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them:
Which player rehabbing from surgery or a preseason injury has you putting that player on your "do not draft" list?
Wes Welker. Sure, I know he has supposedly had near miraculous recovery from his torn ACL and has been prolific with catches for the last two seasons, but I am very sure someone else will want him more. There is just too much risk to draft him as a starter and yet no way that your league will wait for the first 36 wideouts to be drafted before considering him. His name is too magnetic each time he is passed over that eventually someone succumbs and drafts him too early based on optimistic hopes and memories of what a healthy Welker was capable of doing.
Dorey is the co-founder and lead NFL analyst for The Huddle and author of Fantasy Football: The Next Level. He has projected and predicted every NFL game and player performance since 1997 and has appeared in numerous magazines, newspapers, radio and television.
Rule #1 Never rule out a player categorically; I will draft anyone if they fall in the draft far enough. Having said that, I drafted Brett Favre in a draft Saturday and regretted it the second I said it. Brett’s own words keep haunting me, “Maybe it (ankle) never gets to where I want it to be. 40 years old...three surgeries...that's all you need to know." So if I had to pick one player with a “Do Not Draft” note potentially by his name it would old man Favre. I honestly think he will play in 2010, but not at the level of his career year last year. Maybe the current scare will send him down the rankings enough for him to be value again. I would draft him, just not at QB9.
Sam Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics, all available at his website, www.ffguidebook.com, at all major bookstores, and at www.amazon.com. He is a 20-year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF), National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 competitors) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).
None of the injuries have been so bad that it's forced me to give up on anyone. That's not to say I won't wait longer to consider a player like WR Dez Bryant due to his high ankle sprain, but anyone can be a good deal if you get them late enough according to your draft plan. That is, unless the injury is season-ending.
Nazarek is the CEO of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. His company offers an online rookie draft kit, preseason draft guide, customizable cheat sheets, fantasy auction & regular drafting programs, weekly in-season fantasy newsletters, injury reports and free NFL news (updated daily) at its web site. He has been playing fantasy football since 1988 and is the one and only four-peat champion of the SI.com Experts Fantasy League, a nationally published writer in several fantasy magazines and a former columnist for SI.com. For more info go to www.ffmastermind.com. Nazarek can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Although we will obviously be monitoring the progress of some of the players who have been nicked up early like Knowshon Moreno, Dez Bryant and Jeremy Maclin none of them are undraftable at this point. In addition players like Wes Welker who is coming off of a major surgery and Ronnie Brown who has a history of injuries need to be looked at a little differently than the average player but again, they are not on a "do not draft list". Depending on where you can grab them, every player has value. Ronnie Brown in round 2 is "no go" but Ronnie Brown in round 7 would be a steal. The message here is that unless a player is definitely out for the season, there is really no such thing as a "do not draft list" for us.
The May brothers have more than 16 years of combined fantasy football experience and are the co-founders of FantasyDraftMaster.com. The cornerstone of FDM is the UberRank which is a revolutionary approach to the traditional fantasy football cheat sheet. FantasyDraftMaster.com also offers insightful and humorous commentary on football happenings as well as recommendations on waiver wire pickups, line up submissions and weekly pick em' pools. For more info, visit www.fantasydraftmaster.com or email us at email@example.com.
T.J. Houshmandzadeh is at the top of my “Do Not Draft” list this year. I was steering clear of him even before he underwent sports hernia surgery back in April. I’ve never believed he has the skill-set to be a team’s #1 WR. And he did nothing to change my opinion last season, averaging just 11.5 yards-per-catch and scoring only 3 times. Now he’s 32 years old, playing on an offense in transition, and coming off surgery. No thanks!
Smola is the Senior Editor of DraftSharks.com. DraftSharks has been providing thought-provoking, outside-the-box fantasy football analysis since 1999. The site provides its members with tons of feature articles, daily email updates, in-depth player profiles and projections, its exclusive MVP Draft Board, and much more!
I can't say I would NEVER draft someone; everyone has value in the right round or at the appropriate bid. I'll avoid relying on the Miami Dolphins' Ronnie Brown (foot) in the late fourth round, which is what his ADP suggests. It's not easy to bank on a recovery from a Lisfranc fracture, especially when he has Ricky Williams behind him. Brown would have to be my No. 3 back and fall further than his current price for me to consider him. I also won't back into grabbing PUPed Minnesota Vikings WR Sidney Rice (hip) as my No. 1 wideout.
Since 1996, KFFL.com has been combining its award-winning news service with top-notch fantasy analysis. KFFL.com offers industry-leading services, including daily news, draft guides and in-season advice. Now 100 percent free, KFFL.com is your destination for fantasy baseball, football and NASCAR cheat sheets, tips, sleepers and much more. KFFL.com has won more than a dozen expert championships and was listed as "One of the 10 essential sports-related online destinations for fans, athletes and fantasy owners" by Time.com. KFFL.com has provided content to USA Today, Yahoo! Sports, FOXSports.com and many other quality organizations.
Steve Smith has always proven to be one of the best in the game. He has been known to play while hurt (remember the first time he broke his arm last year). However, a broken arm twice in one year's span makes me a little worried about how he can hold up. Maybe we are talking about a terrible coincidence. The breaks were in two different spots after all. However, Smith will be drafted much higher in drafts than I am willing to risk.
Since 1994 Fantasy Insights has partnered with owners to deliver accurate-timely-tools and information geared towards fantasy success, including Premium Pre-Season and Weekly Reports and other fantasy products. Fantasy Insights can sort through all of the garbage and provide quality insights and loads of information for owners to use while compiling and managing their fantasy football team.
That’s a serious knee injury that Wes Welker is coming back from, but he seems to be doing fine. I would be willing to gamble on him, particularly in a PPR format. There are other guys I’ve downgraded because of injury concerns — most notably, Knowshon Moreno, Marques Colston, Sidney Rice and Steven Jackson –- but I’d be willing to select those players.
Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index. He's been in that role since 1987, generating most of the player rankings and analysis for that publication. His work can be seen in Fantasy Football Index magazine, and also at the company's website, www.fantasyindex.com.
I will stay away from Knowshon Moreno, we don't love this Broncos offense anyway, but the additional hamstring injury scares a bit too much about Moreno. Maybe we are jaded from the days when Ike Bruce seemed to always miss an eternity with hammy injuries, but bottom line, if a guy gets that injury, it can linger for the entire year.
Kamys is president of Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports. His company, via the web, offers player news, injury reports, cheat sheets, projections, weekly matchups, statistics, and a customized team tracker. Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports also e-mails preseason newsletters and reports throughout the season. For more info visit www.docstats.com or send email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
Knowshon Moreno based on the early reports. His hamstring is not torn, that's good news but man is that a bad injury for a RB that counts on speed and was less than overwhelming as a rookie. Moreno a couple of recovering from injuries offensive linemen and no help from the WR group to take pressure off. I'll pass, thanks...
Tranquilli is the founder and the primary "brains" (if you stretch it) of BFDFANTASYfootball.com. BFD is about delivering the information players want, not fluff, just opinions that matter to fantasy football players. Lou has worked with NFL players and gives a unique perspective because of it.
I don't think I'm quite ready for a definitive "Do Not Draft" moniker this early in training camp. Of the early hobblers, I'd still grab Michael Turner, Dez Bryant, Percy Harvin, and Steve Smith [Carolina] in a heartbeat. I believe Wes Welker will fully recover and I still think Favre is 90% probable to play--"ankle of glass" or not. On my "Be Very Cautious" list, you have to be at least a little mindful of Jonathan Stewart, Colston, Hardesty, Sidney Rice, Ronnie Brown, and Moreno. If I was forced to not waffle and pick guys to definitely avoid, I would say my list would include Antonio Bryant (even if he was healthy), Donte Stallworth (not a "has been", rather he's a "never was/never will be"), and the aforementioned Moreno (hammies are tough to shake).
Scott Sachs is “The Coach”, at Perfect Season Fantasy Football, offering Live Talk & Advice from early August through the NFL Playoffs. The Coach has 22 years experience in a 24 team league, 19 years in playoffs with multiple Championships, including the league’s only Perfect Season! Free content and subscriber options at www.perfectseasonffb.com, or email questions or info requests to email@example.com.
I'm not a huge fan of Knowshow Moreno this year after his hamstring injury. The Denver offense will take a step back this year with Brandon Marshall in Miami and Moreno isn't expected back until August 21 at the earliest. With LenDale White now on the roster, he may lose goal line carries as well. Don't forget he only had a 3.8 YPC mark and fumbled four times in his rookie season. He never eclipsed the 100-yard mark in any game and doesn't have breakaway speed as his season-long 36 yard carry indicated. In fact, in 14 of his 16 games he had a long-run of 18 yards or less. The sophmore jinx will be in full effect here in my opinion.
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It's hard to make any player a "do not draft" at this point but Sidney Rice is starting to look that way to me. He currently isn't a lock to start the season and with the potential of not having Favre, there seems to be a ton of risk there.
Fantasy Football Champs, FFChamps.com, founders the Millmans are the No. 1 ranked experts In the history of the Fantasy Football Index Experts Poll. FFChamps.com gets there every year by following our Football Bible, The FFCPI, our weekly rankings telling you who to play. FFChamps.com has the most state of the industry Mock Draft tool, proprietary algorithms and systems for player rankings/who to draft/who to play/who to trade in the industry, and one-to-one Expert Advice. In the last 7 years FF Champs has competed against the top Fantasy Football Experts in all of the major magazines' Experts Polls and has finished lower than 3rd only twice.
I would rather be proven wrong by Wes Welker than draft a guy who tore his ACL in January and makes a living on his sharp route-running, moves and cutting ability. Maybe he'll be perfectly fine in September, but it won't be happening on any of my teams.
Richardson has been a columnist and contributor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and web site for the past nine years. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual draft and auction leagues since their inception. He previews all the NFL games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays during the NFL season.
Posted by Eugene Hitt | Aug. 05 at 02:28 AM
Moreno's injury is eerily similiar to Matt Forte's last year. He'll be slow and un-agile. Don't draft ANY Bronco's this year!
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