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With both Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler taking over as the starting QB in 2006 (Cutler late season 2006), these two looked destined to have classic AFC West battles. As it would turn out there would be two-and-a-half seasons and five Denver vs. San Diego games with Cutler still as a Bronco. Rivers and the Chargers went 4-1 against Cutler and the Broncos. In Cutler's last season the fireworks were on full display as the two teams split the annual series and the two QBs averaged over 300 yards passing and 2.5 TDs in the two games. Then, longtime Denver head coach Mike Shanahan was suddenly fired after 14 seasons (and missing the playoffs for the third straight year), Cutler was miffed on the decision (and not being consulted in advance), demanded a trade out of Denver and suddenly was a Chicago Bear. But for an albeit brief old time's sake, we'll give Cutler another shot at his would-be career AFC West rival. Cutler is the underdog as Rivers is the #7 QB in average draft results to-date (with a 3.12 ADP) versus Cutler who is the #9 QB (but a 5.12 ADP). Rivers ranks ahead of Cutler in 10 of 10 magazines we examined.
While Phillip Rivers has back-to-back 4,000-yard seasons passing, San Diego doesn't actually pass as much as you would think. Over the past two years San Diego is one of only nine teams that do not have 1,000 pass attempts. Rivers just has not needed that many attempts to move the ball as they take it big chunks. He's led the NFL in yards per attempt the last two years (8.4 in 2008, which Rivers then increased to 8.8 in 2009) while the NFL only had four starting WRs that topped 17 yards per reception and San Diego had two of the four. In San Diego's 11-game winning streak to close out the season last year, Rivers had a 21 to 6 TD/INT ratio with an amazing 69% completion rate. Over the last two seasons Rivers leads the NFL with in TD/INT ratio with 62 TDs to 20 INTs and his 104.9 QB rating over those two seasons leads the NFL as well. The one complication here of course is his ace receiver Vincent Jackson has been suspended for the first three games for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy and has threatened to sit if he doesn't get a new contract.
Now entering his second season as a Chicago Bears, Jay Cutler gets a likely significant upgrade in fantasy potential going from offensive coordinator Ron Turner (Cutler was fairly critical about not liking the playbook) to Mike Martz, the man who directed what was dubbed the "greatest show on turf" in 2001 with St. Louis going 14-2, averaging 418 yards per offense per game (37% more than every other team that season on average) and taking the Rams to the Super Bowl. Martz certainly can have a big impact on an offense. He is entering his 3rd NFL team in the last 4 years as an offensive coordinator. While he didn't have a major impact at San Francisco in 2008 he did work wonders in Detroit. In 2006, his first season with the Lions, Martz suddenly turned 34-year-old Jon Kitna into a 4,000-yard quarterback at age 34. Per Fantasy Index, over the past five seasons, Mike Martz offenses have passed for more than every team in the NFL except Peyton Manning and the Colts - and that's with a QB list that includes Marc Bulger, Chris Chandler, Jamie Martin, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jon Kitna, J.T. O'Sullivan and Shaun Hill. With Chicago, Martz inherits Jay Cutler who has a 4,500 yard season on his resume and has a nice collection of receivers to blueprint around in Devin Aromashodu, Johnny Knox, Devin Hester and Earl Bennett plus TE Greg Olsen.
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