Ask the Experts
Posted Aug. 18 at 10:30 PM
ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them:
Which NFL rookie have you already decided won't amount to anything in the league?
If I had to pick one I'd go with Toby Gerhart. He was a man among boys in college but has shown little since joining the Vikings. He had eight carries for 24 yards over the weekend, nothing too impressive and sits behind Albert Young as the #2 RB. AP owners should breathe easier knowing he isn't going to steal any goal-line carries any time soon.
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I am going to have to go with Ben Tate. I can't think of too many players that have missed their entire rookie campaign and went on the have a decent career. There just too much lost time in development and conditioning. Missing the year also leaves the door wide open for someone else to step up and take the spot light. The coaching staff was already talking about Tate having a lot to learn and a long way to go and this injury makes it even harder to bridge the gap.
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It's probably unfair to pick on Ben Tate since he is injured, but the scope of the question makes this one almost impossible to answer. Tate has the physical look of a capable NFL back, but injuries could hold him back. Before the season-ending ankle fracture he missed much of the early offseason due to a hamstring injury. The start to his NFL career hasn't been an encouraging one so far.
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Ben Tate. Next question. OK, how about Sam Bradford STL QB. Not only do rookie QBs under whelm in their first year, but the Rams OL is a shambles. Bradford is not set up for success. Bradford went 6-13 for 57 yards plus 4 sacks and a fumble this week. Add the fact that he may not be the starter week 1 (I think he will start then or shortly thereafter) and you have a recipe for disappointment.
Sam Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics, all available at his website, www.ffguidebook.com, at all major bookstores, and at www.amazon.com. He is a 20-year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF), National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 competitors) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).
The three second-round running backs are off to a rough start. Ben Tate is out for the year; I think he has only nominal value, even in a dynasty format — I wouldn’t draft him. Montario Hardesty is hurt and hasn’t played for Cleveland. And Toby Gerhart looked awfully ordinary in his debut for the Vikings. To me, Gerhart looked like just an ordinary guy.
Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index. He's been in that role since 1987, generating most of the player rankings and analysis for that publication. His work can be seen in Fantasy Football Index magazine, and also at the company's website, www.fantasyindex.com.
I don't let one preseason game impact my thoughts on how a rookie's entire career will play out. So I'll go with a guy who I didn't believe in even before last weekend: Colt McCoy. Sure, he was a winner in college, a great leader, blah, blah, blah. McCoy is undersized, doesn't have a strong arm, and isn't accurate enough to make up for it. Of course, being drafted by the Browns didn't help his cause either. I think this guy will be out of the league in a few years. Sorry, Colt!
Smola is the Senior Editor of DraftSharks.com. DraftSharks has been providing thought-provoking, outside-the-box fantasy football analysis since 1999. The site provides its members with tons of feature articles, daily email updates, in-depth player profiles and projections, its exclusive MVP Draft Board, and much more!
Wow, really too early to say if a guy is going to be a bust, but it looks like WR Mike Williams in Tampa Bay is ahead of WR Arrelious Benn on the depth chart. Benn will have few chances on an offense that is as bad as the Bucs, so if he isn't starting he won't have much value.
Kamys is president of Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports. His company, via the web, offers player news, injury reports, cheat sheets, projections, weekly matchups, statistics, and a customized team tracker. Dr. Stats Fantasy Sports also e-mails preseason newsletters and reports throughout the season. For more info visit www.docstats.com or send email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
I will temper this answer by the fact that I am a Browns fan, but Colt McCoy looked nothing like the stud he was at Texas. He has been compared to Drew Brees, but he played more like Brady Quinn--actually EXACTLY like BQ--poor judgment, poor reads, wimpy throws, turnovers, then injury cutting short his playing time. Frankly, he could have jump-started his career as he was granted extended playing time due to the Brownies' surprising fast start at Lambeau, and all he did was complete <50% of his passes, plus throw 2 picks, one in the end zone at the end of the half. He needed to throw a jump ball between the WR and the back line--if he had, it looked like a possible 6, or at least an incompletion--but he didn't and the result was a turnover, so no TD--and no 3 points either. The look on Mangini's face could have boiled pasta! The only positive was that McCoy made two great 3rd down runs when all receivers were covered. However, running for your life successfully against 3rd stringers is not a great building block for a career. His night was capped off by him smacking his hand on a helmet or shoulder pads, spraining the thumb on his throwing hand. PLEASE let me be wrong about this! I was happy they drafted him, but I guess there was a reason Holmgren said that, ideally, Colt McCoy will not see the field in 2010.
Scott Sachs is “The Coach”, at Perfect Season Fantasy Football, offering live talk and advice from early August through the NFL playoffs. The Coach has 22 years experience in a 24-team league, 19 years in playoffs with multiple Championships, including the league’s only perfect season! The Coach has a knack for Sleeper & Rookie picks, too! Free content and subscriber options on the website: www.perfectseasonffb.com. Email questions or info requests to email@example.com.
The Jets have made a lot of good picks in recent drafts, including Nick Mangold, Darrelle Revis and Shonn Greene. But so far, fourth-round running back Joe McKnight looks like a misfire. Selected at almost the same time Leon Washington was traded, McKnight was viewed as a possible long-term replacement. But he was out of shape at minicamps and didn't look particularly good against the Giants Monday night. Not much there to get excited about, even in a dynasty format.
Richardson has been a columnist and contributor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and web site for the past nine years. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual draft and auction leagues since their inception. He previews all the NFL games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays during the NFL season.
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