Ask the Experts
Posted Oct. 14 at 01:16 AM
ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly with answers to a new question being posted Thursday morning. How the guest experts responded when we asked them:
Have this season's quarterback injuries caused you to adjust your strategy for future seasons?
I don't think the amount of concussions will influence my quarterback strategy in the future. It's still not extremely common and is too unpredictable to factor into a strategy. I might think differently at the end of the season but Jay Cutler missed only one game and I don't see Aaron Rodgers missing too much time either. If it does prove by season's end to have a lasting effect longer than a quarterback missing one week, I might not wait as long on grabbing a No. 2 QB but as a general rule I'll always wait on a No. 1.
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Yes, the need for depth is undeniable in 2010. If you went thin at the draft on RBs and WRs you're paying the price right now. More than ever the need for a good waiver wire strategy is in order. Watching all the games twice a week as I do has helped already identify player with potential like Shaun Hill and Ryan Fitzpatric at QB or avoid RBs with less potential like Laurence Maroney or Chris Ivory. So far so crazy, but to the prepared go the victories...
Tranquilli is the founder and the primary "brains" (if you stretch it) of BFDFANTASYfootball.com. BFD is about delivering the information players want, not fluff, just opinions that matter to fantasy football players. Lou has worked with NFL players and gives a unique perspective because of it.
Nope, not one bit. I've been fortunate to draft QB Philip Rivers in many of my leagues. And when QB Jay Cutler went down, I just started QB Eli Manning or picked up QB Shaun Hill to bridge the gap. I still urge fantasy owners to WAIT to draft a QB.
Nazarek is the CEO of Fantasy Football Mastermind Inc. His company offers an online rookie draft kit, preseason draft guide, customizable cheat sheets, fantasy auction & regular drafting programs, weekly in-season fantasy newsletters, injury reports and free NFL news (updated daily) at its web site. He has been playing fantasy football since 1988 and is the one and only four-peat champion of the SI.com Experts Fantasy League, a nationally published writer in several fantasy magazines and a former columnist for SI.com. For more info go to www.ffmastermind.com. Nazarek can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Not really. There are really only 4 or 5 elite fantasy quarterbacks in the league and the rewards with them still far out way the risk of injury. After the top 5 the next 10-15 QBs will get you about 15-20 points a game and for that reason you can wait and pick them up in later rounds. I can't see injuries changing these facts and therefore my strategy won't change.
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My strategy will not change. If anything, it reinforces my strategy. I usually try to draft one stud and a serviceable option for the BYE week. After we get a couple of weeks into the season, I seek out the stud quarterback's understudy and stash him on my bench. As an example, I have Aaron Rodgers in 2 of my leagues. I already had Matt Flynn stashed away since about week 3 in case something ever happened to Rodgers. While many Rodgers owners are out there scrambling for a replacement, I already have the choice between Matt Flynn and my serviceable backup in each league. To take this strategy a step further, when the BYE week of my stud QB has passed, I usually dump my serviceable backup so I have only the stud QB and HIS backup as well as another roster spot to help out other positions of need. This won't work for every situation. However, the Packers QB situation is probably the best example to use this strategy.
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It is actually something we are looking at but our strategy, depending on the scoring system of course, isn't going to change that much, we are still going to wait on QB's until the mid rounds and then try and grab two or three guys in that range. Generally one of them will play up into the top 7 or so and we can also play matchups. This year we got guys like Jay Cutler, Kyle Orton, Eli Manning, and Kevin Kolb. The latter of which we backed up with Michael Vick, just in case.
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No. Not at all. I noticed a few months back that quarterbacks are far less likely to get hurt today than in the past. There are so many rules and restrictions about how they can be hit. Defenders aren’t allowed to dive at their knees, or to hit them high. They’re not allowed to lead with their head, and they have to be careful not to hit them in the facemask area with an arm. It’s all translated into far fewer quarterback injuries. If you look at the number of missed games by quarterbacks over the last 20 years, you’ll see a steady decline. Sacks keep falling every year. It’s almost like flag football now. So with quarterbacks, I think it’s safer than ever to assume guys will last 16 games without getting hurt. Manning, Manning, Brady, Brees, Rivers, Sanchez, Henne, Flacco, Palmer, Ryan, Freeman, Young, Schaub. It won’t surprise me at all if all of those guys last the entire season without getting hurt. And that kind of thing just never happened in the past.
Allan is the senior writer for Fantasy Football Index. He's been in that role since 1987, generating most of the player rankings and analysis for that publication. His work can be seen in Fantasy Football Index magazine, and also at the company's website, www.fantasyindex.com.
The injuries are always a huge part of fantasy football, it doesn't change my strategy at all. My strategy is and always has been based on value based drafting, but that alone never gets it done. This year, in one of my leagues I hit the injury jackpot and have had to rebuild my total roster. The only way to win your league is draft as best as you can, but then pound the waiver wire like it's nobodys business. Few had Brandon Lloyd in their draft, but plenty picked him up because they reacted quickly to some early season success.
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Since I typically target quarterbacks in the middle rounds in almost every draft, my strategy will remain the same. The position pool is small and volatile, so you can typically pinpoint a commodity or two that can ascend to the top level each year, without having to worry much about losing your top QB investment to the sidelines. The injuries might affect fantasy football drafters in general, though - maybe backup quarterbacks start coming off the board earlier than usual in 2011.
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I typically always have drafted 4 QBs. Usually 3 starters, plus the best "handcuff" backup to one of my 3. This strategy helped me in the recent past, as I had drafted Tom Brady the year he got hurt in Game 1. While the other owners publicly and privately rejoiced in my misfortune, the very last player I drafted that day was my No. 4 QB, none other than Matt Cassel. The Pats ended up at 11-5 as I recall and I still made our league's playoffs! This year we reduced roster sizes, so I drafted 3 QBs who are all starters--a good thing, because I have Aaron Rodgers who is currently "concussed".
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No. I use one of two main QB strategies. The first is a great QB and no backup. I avoided Aaron Rodgers this year precisely because of the GB O Line, instead drafting either Peyton Manning or Drew Brees if they fell enough in the draft. In this scenario, I felt like neither QB should have major risks due to their protection and so I do not have another QB if they get hurt. So far, so good. By not drafting a backup QB who would only be used except on their bye, I free up roster space for the extra RB or WR sleeper (Ben Jarvis Green or Brandon Lloyd). I grab a free agent QB two weeks before their bye. The other strategy (default if no great QB available cheaply) was to wait on QB and draft two mid round QBs (usually the 12th and 13th QB drafted). This year that was Matt Ryan, Donovan McNabb or Joe Flacco. With two decent QBs I have an option in case one of them is out for a week with a concussion.
Sam Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics, all available at his website, www.ffguidebook.com, at all major bookstores, and at www.amazon.com. He is a 20-year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF), National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 competitors) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).
Not really, only because I typically try to draft two good quarterbacks anyway. It's not a position where I want to get stuck racing to the waiver wire during the season, because I think viable starters emerge more regularly at other positions. If I take my first quarterback in the fifth round, I might take his backup just 2-3 rounds later. Only if I draft guys like Brees or Manning, who I'm confident will play 16 games, do I wait on my No. 2.
Richardson has been a columnist and contributor to the Fantasy Football Index magazine and web site for the past nine years. His responsibilities include team defense and IDP projections and various site features, and he has run the magazine's annual draft and auction leagues since their inception. He previews all the NFL games on Saturdays and writes a wrap-up column on Mondays during the NFL season.
Posted by Adam Bjork | Oct. 16 at 01:17 AM
Tranquilli watches each game twice... and there are people on welfare
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