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Table is set for Patriots

Posted Mar. 12 at 09:13 AM

Bad news, if you're sick of seeing the Patriots do well.

The team's 2008 schedule projects to be not only the easiest in the league next year, but the easiest in the last 17 years -- probably a lot longer.

I calculate strength-of-schedule each spring. And I've got all the numbers since 1992 still kicking around. And in none of those seasons - 1992 to 2007 - did a team project to play a schedule as easy as what the Patriots figure to face this fall.

New England's 16 games this year are against teams that went a combined 99-157 last year. Playing four games against the Dolphins and Jets, of course, helps. Those teams went 1-15 and 4-12 last year. But there are plenty of other softies on the schedule as well - St. Louis (3-13), Kansas City (4-12), Oakland (4-12) and San Francisco (5-11). Three games against 7-9 teams - Buffalo (twice) and Denver. And a home game against 8-8 Arizona. The projected three toughest games are at Seattle (10-6), at Indianapolis (13-3) and at home against Pittsburgh (14-2).

This is all just based on numbers, of course. Teams can vary widely from year to year, making this strength-of-schedule stuff almost meaningless. The Bears, Panthers and Eagles, for example, were suppose to play the 2nd-, 7th- and 14th-easiest schedules last year, but they ended up playing schedules ranking 29th, 24th and 31st. But it sure looks like the tables is set for New England to roll to another 14-plus wins this season.

Easiest schedules (based on winning percentage)
W L Pct.
99 157 .387 New England
108 148 .422 San Diego
112 144 .438 Oakland
114 142 .445 Denver
115 141 .449 Buffalo
115 141 .449 New Orleans

Hardest schedules (based on winning percentage)
W L Pct.
153 103 .598 Pittsburgh
152 104 .594 Indianapolis
143 113 .559 Jacksonville
141 115 .551 Baltimore
141 115 .551 Minnesota

Easiest schedules (based on expected points allowed)
PPG
22.6 San Francisco
22.4 New England
22.4 Buffalo
22.4 Tampa Bay
22.4 NY Jets

Hardest schedules (based on expected points allowed)
PPG
20.5 Detroit
20.7 Cincinnati
20.9 Indianapolis
21.0 Cleveland
21.0 Houston
21.1 Pittsburgh


--Ian Allan

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