Ian Allan
Spoiler alert: For those who are enjoying watching the games each Sunday, I don’t want to give away how this thing is going to finish in the end, but now that the teams have played close to half of the season, we’re getting a pretty good idea how this thing is going to end. The below chart shows the approximate win totals for each team after grading each of the remaining games.
According to my projections, we’re looking at the Ravens and Jets earning the byes on the AFC side. In the NFC, it looks like the Falcons – with an easier schedule – finishing just ahead of the Giants.
An all-New York Super Bowl? It’s possible. We also could be looking at a Super Bowl matching the third-year quarterbacks, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco; those teams play in Georgia in Week 10.
Neither Baltimore nor the Jets, however, have an easy march to the playoffs. As I see this thing playing out, the Steelers and Patriots (who are in those same divisions) will be nipping at their heels all season. The losers of those battles could wind up playing on the road in the playoffs against teams that have lesser records. I believe Indianapolis and Kansas City will be those other division winners in the AFC, with Tennessee winning 10 games but getting left out.
On the NFC side, I am confident the Falcons and Giants, barring some kind of major injury, will fill the top 2 spots. Seattle and Green Bay appear to be the other division winners, with the Saints and Eagles grabbing the wild-card spots.
Top-5 draft picks next April: Carolina, Buffalo, Detroit, Dallas and Cleveland.
Projected wins for each team
Wins
12.1 Baltimore
12.0 NY Jets
11.8 Pittsburgh
11.6 Atlanta
10.8 NY Giants
10.7 New England
10.6 Indianapolis
10.1 Tennessee
9.8 Kansas City
9.4 Seattle
9.4 Philadelphia
9.3 New Orleans
8.7 Miami
8.5 Houston
8.5 Washington
8.1 Green Bay
8.1 Tampa Bay
7.6 Chicago
7.2 San Diego
7.0 Minnesota
6.8 Oakland
6.7 Cincinnati
6.6 Arizona
6.0 Jacksonville
6.0 St. Louis
5.9 Denver
5.8 San Francisco
5.2 Cleveland
4.8 Dallas
4.7 Detroit
3.6 Buffalo
3.5 Carolina
Week-by-week breakdown
The percentage likelihood of each team winning each game.
(These figures are used to create the table above; for example, 45% would equal .45 of a win).
Arizona
win St. Louis (A)
loss Atlanta (A)
win Oakland (H)
loss San Diego (A)
win New Orleans (H)
bye week
loss Seattle (A)
45% Tampa Bay (H)
10% Minnesota (A)
45% Seattle (H)
15% Kansas City (A)
50% San Francisco (H)
55% St. Louis (H)
50% Denver (H)
35% Carolina (A)
35% Dallas (H)
20% San Francisco (A)
Atlanta
loss Pittsburgh (A)
win Arizona (H)
win New Orleans (A)
win San Francisco (H)
win Cleveland (A)
loss Philadelphia (A)
win Cincinnati (H)
bye week
85% Tampa Bay (H)
55% Baltimore (H)
80% St. Louis (A)
75% Green Bay (H)
65% Tampa Bay (A)
80% Carolina (A)
50% Seattle (A)
70% New Orleans (H)
95% Carolina (H)
Baltimore
win NY Jets (A)
loss Cincinnati (A)
win Cleveland (H)
win Pittsburgh (A)
win Denver (H)
win New England (A)
win Buffalo (H)
bye week
65% Miami (H)
45% Atlanta (A)
90% Carolina (A)
95% Tampa Bay (H)
50% Pittsburgh (H)
60% Houston (A)
70% New Orleans (H)
70% Cleveland (A)
65% Cincinnati (H)
Buffalo
loss Miami (H)
loss Green Bay (A)
loss New England (A)
loss NY Jets (H)
loss Jacksonville (H)
bye week
loss Baltimore (A)
30% Kansas City (A)
60% Chicago (H)
60% Detroit (H)
30% Cincinnati (A)
20% Pittsburgh (H)
35% Minnesota (A)
50% Cleveland (H)
25% Miami (A)
30% New England (H)
20% NY Jets (A)
Carolina
loss NY Giants (A)
loss Tampa Bay (H)
loss Cincinnati (H)
loss New Orleans (A)
loss Chicago (H)
bye week
win San Francisco (H)
35% St. Louis (A)
35% New Orleans (H)
25% Tampa Bay (A)
10% Baltimore (H)
35% Cleveland (A)
10% Seattle (A)
20% Atlanta (H)
65% Arizona (H)
5% Pittsburgh (A)
5% Atlanta (A)
Chicago
win Detroit (H)
win Dallas (A)
win Green Bay (H)
loss NY Giants (A)
win Carolina (A)
loss Seattle (H)
loss Washington (H)
bye week
40% Buffalo (A)
55% Minnesota (H)
30% Miami (A)
45% Philadelphia (H)
45% Detroit (A)
40% New England (H)
40% Minnesota (A)
30% NY Jets (H)
35% Green Bay (A)
Cincinnati
loss New England (A)
win Baltimore (H)
win Carolina (A)
loss Cleveland (A)
loss Tampa Bay (H)
bye week
loss Atlanta (A)
50% Miami (H)
50% Pittsburgh (H)
30% Indianapolis (A)
70% Buffalo (H)
25% NY Jets (A)
55% New Orleans (H)
35% Pittsburgh (A)
65% Cleveland (H)
55% San Diego (H)
35% Baltimore (A)
Cleveland
loss Tampa Bay (A)
loss Kansas City (H)
loss Baltimore (A)
win Cincinnati (H)
loss Atlanta (H)
loss Pittsburgh (A)
win New Orleans (A)
bye week
20% New England (H)
20% NY Jets (H)
45% Jacksonville (A)
65% Carolina (H)
25% Miami (A)
50% Buffalo (A)
35% Cincinnati (A)
30% Baltimore (H)
25% Pittsburgh (H)
Dallas
loss Washington (A)
loss Chicago (H)
win Houston (A)
bye week
loss Tennessee (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
65% Jacksonville (H)
20% Green Bay (A)
10% NY Giants (A)
60% Detroit (H)
45% New Orleans (H)
10% Indianapolis (A)
25% Philadelphia (H)
55% Washington (H)
65% Arizona (A)
20% Philadelphia (A)
Denver
loss Jacksonville (A)
win Seattle (H)
loss Indianapolis (H)
win Tennessee (A)
loss Baltimore (A)
loss NY Jets (H)
loss Oakland (H)
50% San Francisco (A)
bye week
45% Kansas City (H)
25% San Diego (A)
65% St. Louis (H)
30% Kansas City (A)
50% Arizona (A)
35% Oakland (A)
45% Houston (H)
45% San Diego (H)
Detroit
loss Chicago (A)
loss Philadelphia (H)
loss Minnesota (A)
loss Green Bay (A)
win St. Louis (H)
loss NY Giants (A)
bye week
50% Washington (H)
15% NY Jets (H)
40% Buffalo (A)
40% Dallas (A)
15% New England (H)
55% Chicago (H)
40% Green Bay (H)
30% Tampa Bay (A)
25% Miami (A)
55% Minnesota (H)
Green Bay
win Philadelphia (A)
win Buffalo (H)
loss Chicago (A)
win Detroit (H)
loss Washington (A)
loss Miami (H)
win Minnesota (H)
15% NY Jets (A)
80% Dallas (H)
bye week
35% Minnesota (A)
25% Atlanta (A)
65% San Francisco (H)
60% Detroit (A)
20% New England (A)
45% NY Giants (H)
65% Chicago (H)
Houston
win Indianapolis (H)
win Washington (A)
loss Dallas (H)
win Oakland (A)
loss NY Giants (H)
win Kansas City (H)
bye week
20% Indianapolis (A)
55% San Diego (H)
55% Jacksonville (A)
25% NY Jets (A)
50% Tennessee (H)
35% Philadelphia (A)
40% Baltimore (H)
35% Tennessee (A)
55% Denver (A)
75% Jacksonville (H)
Indianapolis
loss Houston (A)
win NY Giants (H)
win Denver (A)
loss Jacksonville (A)
win Kansas City (H)
win Washington (A)
bye week
80% Houston (H)
55% Philadelphia (A)
70% Cincinnati (H)
35% New England (A)
70% San Diego (H)
90% Dallas (H)
40% Tennessee (A)
80% Jacksonville (H)
75% Oakland (A)
60% Tennessee (H)
Jacksonville
win Denver (H)
loss San Diego (A)
loss Philadelphia (H)
win Indianapolis (H)
win Buffalo (A)
loss Tennessee (H)
loss Kansas City (A)
35% Dallas (A)
bye week
45% Houston (H)
55% Cleveland (H)
15% NY Giants (A)
15% Tennessee (A)
55% Oakland (H)
20% Indianapolis (A)
35% Washington (H)
25% Houston (A)
Kansas City
win San Diego (H)
win Cleveland (A)
win San Francisco (H)
bye week
loss Indianapolis (A)
loss Houston (A)
win Jacksonville (H)
70% Buffalo (H)
50% Oakland (A)
55% Denver (A)
85% Arizona (H)
40% Seattle (A)
70% Denver (H)
35% San Diego (A)
60% St. Louis (A)
45% Tennessee (H)
65% Oakland (H)
Miami
win Buffalo (A)
win Minnesota (A)
loss NY Jets (H)
loss New England (H)
bye week
win Green Bay (A)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
50% Cincinnati (A)
35% Baltimore (A)
55% Tennessee (H)
70% Chicago (H)
55% Oakland (A)
75% Cleveland (H)
40% NY Jets (A)
75% Buffalo (H)
75% Detroit (H)
35% New England (A)
Minnesota
loss New Orleans (A)
loss Miami (H)
win Detroit (H)
bye week
loss NY Jets (A)
win Dallas (H)
loss Green Bay (A)
20% New England (A)
90% Arizona (H)
45% Chicago (A)
65% Green Bay (H)
45% Washington (A)
65% Buffalo (H)
40% NY Giants (H)
60% Chicago (H)
25% Philadelphia (A)
45% Detroit (A)
New England
win Cincinnati (H)
loss NY Jets (A)
win Buffalo (H)
win Miami (A)
bye week
loss Baltimore (H)
win San Diego (A)
80% Minnesota (H)
80% Cleveland (A)
30% Pittsburgh (A)
65% Indianapolis (H)
85% Detroit (A)
55% NY Jets (H)
60% Chicago (A)
80% Green Bay (H)
70% Buffalo (A)
65% Miami (H)
New Orleans
win Minnesota (H)
win San Francisco (A)
loss Atlanta (H)
win Carolina (H)
loss Arizona (A)
win Tampa Bay (A)
loss Cleveland (H)
50% Pittsburgh (H)
65% Carolina (A)
bye week
80% Seattle (H)
55% Dallas (A)
45% Cincinnati (A)
90% St. Louis (H)
30% Baltimore (A)
30% Atlanta (A)
80% Tampa Bay (H)
NY Giants
win Carolina (H)
loss Indianapolis (A)
loss Tennessee (H)
win Chicago (H)
win Houston (A)
win Detroit (H)
win Dallas (A)
bye week
55% Seattle (A)
90% Dallas (H)
50% Philadelphia (A)
85% Jacksonville (H)
65% Washington (H)
60% Minnesota (A)
60% Philadelphia (H)
55% Green Bay (A)
55% Washington (A)
NY Jets
loss Baltimore (H)
win New England (H)
win Miami (A)
win Buffalo (A)
win Minnesota (H)
win Denver (A)
bye week
85% Green Bay (H)
85% Detroit (A)
80% Cleveland (A)
75% Houston (H)
75% Cincinnati (H)
45% New England (A)
60% Miami (H)
40% Pittsburgh (A)
70% Chicago (A)
80% Buffalo (H)
Oakland
loss Tennessee (A)
win St. Louis (H)
loss Arizona (A)
loss Houston (H)
win San Diego (H)
loss San Francisco (A)
win Denver (A)
55% Seattle (H)
50% Kansas City (H)
bye week
20% Pittsburgh (A)
45% Miami (H)
35% San Diego (A)
45% Jacksonville (A)
65% Denver (H)
25% Indianapolis (H)
35% Kansas City (A)
Philadelphia
loss Green Bay (H)
win Detroit (A)
win Jacksonville (A)
loss Washington (H)
win San Francisco (A)
win Atlanta (H)
loss Tennessee (A)
bye week
45% Indianapolis (H)
50% Washington (A)
50% NY Giants (H)
55% Chicago (A)
65% Houston (H)
75% Dallas (A)
40% NY Giants (A)
75% Minnesota (H)
80% Dallas (H)
Pittsburgh
win Atlanta (H)
win Tennessee (A)
win Tampa Bay (A)
loss Baltimore (H)
bye week
win Cleveland (H)
win Miami (A)
50% New Orleans (A)
50% Cincinnati (A)
70% New England (H)
80% Oakland (H)
80% Buffalo (A)
50% Baltimore (A)
65% Cincinnati (H)
60% NY Jets (H)
95% Carolina (H)
75% Cleveland (A)
San Diego
loss Kansas City (A)
win Jacksonville (H)
loss Seattle (A)
win Arizona (H)
loss Oakland (A)
loss St. Louis (A)
loss New England (H)
60% Tennessee (H)
45% Houston (A)
bye week
75% Denver (H)
30% Indianapolis (A)
65% Oakland (H)
65% Kansas City (H)
75% San Francisco (H)
45% Cincinnati (A)
55% Denver (A)
San Francisco
loss Seattle (A)
loss New Orleans (H)
loss Kansas City (A)
loss Atlanta (A)
loss Philadelphia (H)
win Oakland (H)
loss Carolina (A)
50% Denver (H)
bye week
75% St. Louis (H)
60% Tampa Bay (H)
50% Arizona (A)
35% Green Bay (A)
60% Seattle (H)
25% San Diego (A)
45% St. Louis (A)
80% Arizona (H)
Seattle
win San Francisco (H)
loss Denver (A)
win San Diego (H)
loss St. Louis (A)
bye week
win Chicago (A)
win Arizona (H)
45% Oakland (A)
45% NY Giants (H)
55% Arizona (A)
20% New Orleans (A)
60% Kansas City (H)
90% Carolina (H)
40% San Francisco (A)
50% Atlanta (H)
40% Tampa Bay (A)
95% St. Louis (H)
St. Louis
loss Arizona (H)
loss Oakland (A)
win Washington (H)
win Seattle (H)
loss Detroit (A)
win San Diego (H)
loss Tampa Bay (A)
65% Carolina (H)
bye week
25% San Francisco (A)
20% Atlanta (H)
35% Denver (A)
45% Arizona (A)
10% New Orleans (A)
40% Kansas City (H)
55% San Francisco (H)
5% Seattle (A)
Tampa Bay
win Cleveland (H)
win Carolina (A)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
bye week
win Cincinnati (A)
loss New Orleans (H)
win St. Louis (H)
55% Arizona (A)
15% Atlanta (A)
75% Carolina (H)
40% San Francisco (A)
5% Baltimore (A)
35% Atlanta (H)
30% Washington (A)
70% Detroit (H)
60% Seattle (H)
20% New Orleans (A)
Tennessee
win Oakland (H)
loss Pittsburgh (H)
win NY Giants (A)
loss Denver (H)
win Dallas (A)
win Jacksonville (A)
win Philadelphia (H)
40% San Diego (A)
bye week
45% Miami (A)
70% Washington (H)
50% Houston (A)
85% Jacksonville (H)
60% Indianapolis (H)
65% Houston (H)
55% Kansas City (A)
40% Indianapolis (A)
Washington
win Dallas (H)
loss Houston (H)
loss St. Louis (A)
win Philadelphia (A)
win Green Bay (H)
loss Indianapolis (H)
win Chicago (A)
50% Detroit (A)
bye week
50% Philadelphia (H)
30% Tennessee (A)
55% Minnesota (H)
35% NY Giants (A)
70% Tampa Bay (H)
45% Dallas (A)
65% Jacksonville (A)
45% NY Giants (H)
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