Challenge Contests — by Justin Eleff

I grew up in Tampa, Florida, home of Busch Gardens, which is in turn home of a weary elephant that a few visitors at a time can ride. You sit on the animal's back, its keeper walks it around an oval, and then the ride is over. Kind of. I skipped one part.

Every time I climbed on top of the poor thing, midway through the ride, the keeper took a detour. He backed the elephant up to a garbage can, got it positioned properly and waited for it to crap. Which it did. Every time, without fail.

I thought of this just now, as I sat down to write, because we have an elephant in our virtual room, readers, and it smells. No way to ignore it or wish it away. I have no choice but to open this column with the next three paragraphs:

Last week I ranked the NFL's quarterbacks according to the value I expected each one to provide in the national challenge contests for the rest of the season. Michael Vick was not at the top of my rankings, and as to one set of challenges he was not even especially near the top. I published that column on Friday. Three days later he had the best fantasy game any modern quarterback has ever had. This is quantifiable; Ian wrote about it here.

I own Vick in some games this season, not in others. I have written about him several times previously, always raising the same stink about using him in challenges that count passing average as a scoring category. And what must be written now is this:

Any time a player I do not own has a game like the one Vick had Monday, he will destroy my chances of doing really well in the challenges that season. One game of that dimension can indeed be the difference between a great season and a good one, or even a good season and a relatively bad one. I was wrong about Vick in Week 10, for sure, by a hell of a lot. I did not (and do not!) believe he will sustain the level of performance he had reached before Monday, and I know his performance at Washington is not remotely sustainable. But it is almost certainly too late now, even if he proves me right in the end, for me to have been right to avoid him in the first place. I'm genuinely sorry if you took my advice.

So, then, with the smell of elephant crap swirling about this column, I move forward with steadfast determination to do better. And I begin, naturally, by doing what I seem to do best (read: most frequently) in these cursed football challenges: by buying a kicker. Because avoiding Vick was hardly my only mistake in Week 10; I also dropped David Buehler in Fanball's Football Challenge, leaving my roster -- finally clear of bye weeks -- with only three kickers, one of whom is was Mike Nugent. Sprained MCL, torn ACL, injured reserve. Yippee.

Buying a kicker in midseason is different than picking one in the preseason. Then we're mostly guessing about which teams will be best -- note that I dropped Buehler; we don't always guess right -- and owning the cheapest kickers among them. Now we have much more information about the teams, and the kickers' salaries mean less. In fact, when you must choose a kicker after Week 10 (and indeed I must; I can't take seven zeroes from Nugent), one good way to do so is by formula -- and my formula doesn't even consider salaries. I rank the kickers somewhat objectively from best to worst, and then I buy the best one I can afford.

From best to worst according to what?

1. Rank all NFL teams, except the two that played last night (whose kickers can't be purchased now), by the number of points they've scored this season. Since they've all played exactly 9 games, just use total points scored.

2. Add 2 points per game played (so, this week: 18 points) to the totals of the teams that play in relatively warm cities and/or in domes. Only add these points once each for Atlanta and New Orleans, as there is no added advantage to playing in a dome in a warm city. And feel free to disagree with me here, but I: (a) added the points for Oakland but not San Francisco, to account for the notorious wind in Candlestick; and (b) added the points for Nashville, which I know has its share of unwarm days. And, yes, you could be more precise about this, accounting for things like the warm-weather Panthers having to play in Pittsburgh on December 23, but the more "sophisticated" you make this analysis, the more time you will waste in performing it.

3. If a team's current kicker has not been its kicker continuously for the entire season, subtract points in varying amounts depending on the circumstances.

IF THE KICKER WAS THE TEAM'S ORIGINAL KICKER BUT MISSED A GAME OR MORE WITH AN INJURY, subtract 1 point per game the team has played (this week: 9 points) for each game the kicker missed. Nate Kaeding missed 3 games, so subtract 27 points from the Chargers' total.

IF THE KICKER WAS NOT THE TEAM'S ORIGINAL KICKER BUT GOT THE JOB BECAUSE OF SOMEONE ELSE'S INJURY, subtract 2 points per game the team has played (this week: 18 points). With Aaron Pettrey now replacing Nugent, subtract 18 points from the Bengals' total.

WHETHER OR NOT THE KICKER WAS THE TEAM'S ORIGINAL KICKER, IF HE GOT THE JOB BY WAY OF A PERFORMANCE-NOT-INJURY-RELATED REPLACEMENT, subtract 3 points per game the team has played (this week: 27 points) for the first such replacement it made, and an additional 1 point per game (9 points) for each additional replacement. Garrett Hartley was the Saints' original kicker, then lost his job, then got it back, so subtract a total of 36 points from the team's total -- 27 because he was replaced, 9 more because his replacement was replaced.

All of the adjustments made in this step are designed to reflect the risk that a team that has already changed kickers once or more, for any reason, may be less hesitant to do so again. Shayne Graham is not the Patriots' guy. Loyalty does not figure into his job security. Conversely, by "trying out" in game action for three weeks, Kris Brown may have made himself one of the Chargers' guys.

4. Once the adjustments described above have been made, multiply the teams' adjusted totals by their kickers' career field goal percentages.

5. The resulting products are your rankings.

For Hartley, for example:

1. The Saints have scored 201 points this season.

2. Add 18 points because they play in a warm dome. Subtotal: 219.

3. Subtract 36 points -- 27 for John Carney having replaced Hartley, another 9 for Hartley having replaced Carney. Subtotal: 183.

4. Multiply by Hartley's career field goal percentage (84.2). Product: 154.1.

5. Rank him against the league's other kickers.

The 30 whose teams have yet to play in Week 11 are ranked below -- and, no, those twin zeroes at the bottom of the rankings are no typo. Call me crazy, but at this point I have no interest in burning a purchase on a guy who has yet to hit a field goal in his career.

Rob Bironas, TEN - 221.2
Adam Vinatieri, IND - 212.5
David Akers, PHI - 209.5
Shayne Graham, NE - 204.8
Nate Kaeding, SD - 199.5
Sebastian Janikowski, OAK - 197.8
Matt Bryant, ATL - 196.6
Neil Rackers, HOU - 185.1
Lawrence Tynes, NYG - 183.3
Ryan Succop, KC - 175.1
Mason Crosby, GB - 170.5
Josh Scobee, JAX - 166.3
Nick Folk, NYJ - 162.4
Connor Barth, TB - 161.2
Matt Prater, DEN - 158.7
Jay Feely, ARZ - 158.1
Ryan Longwell, MIN - 155.6
David Buehler, DAL - 155.5
Garrett Hartley, NO - 154.1
Dave Rayner, DET - 152.6
Olindo Mare, SEA - 149.6
Billy Cundiff, BAL - 146.6
Graham Gano, WAS - 144.9
Josh Brown, STL - 144.0
Phil Dawson, CLE - 143.5
Shaun Suisham, PIT - 136.8
Rian Lindell, BUF - 131.9
John Kasay, CAR - 99.7
Shane Andrus, SF - .0
Aaron Pettrey, CIN - .0

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