24 Hours 'Til Sunday — Andy Richardson
Posted Nov. 19 at 09:39 PM
I've been thinking a little about luck this week. In one experts league I've lost two games by a fraction of a point, while in another, I've won games because of opposing players getting knocked out of Monday night games just a few yards before they beat me. Lucky.
Laments about such luck are a large part of the argument for total points over head-to-head leagues, and anyone who's ever had a tough loss (because we remember those more than the fortunate wins) can agree. But then you see plays like Mike Thomas' Hail Mary reception to beat Houston, or the 49ers' overtime win that relied heavily on a pass interference penalty on a probably uncatchable pass, and realize that four teams' seasons have been dramatically affected by those two plays. So why should fantasy football be free of such whimsy and chance? Luck counts, too.
Bears at Dolphins: "Sometimes these Thursday night games tend to be higher-scoring...." Oh well. Hope you didn't start any Dolphins.
Ravens at Panthers: The Panthers are starting a quarterback, Brian St. Pierre, who they just added to their practice squad a week ago. They're ruled out three of their top four running backs and also rookie wideout Brandon LaFell. Is it a bold statement to suggest they won't win a game the rest of the season? Mike Goodson starts at running back and shouldn't do much. Baltimore should wrap this game up by halftime, so I'd consider using backup Ravens like Willis McGahee this week.
Bills at Bengals: The 2-7 Bengals went 6-0 against the AFC North's other three teams last season, all of whom are now considerably better than they are. Their offense, at least, should be pretty good this week. Both running games look pretty good, with Cedric Benson and Fred Jackson figuring to be full-time guys against soft defenses.
Lions at Cowboys: Dallas is a popular pick in the suicide pool, which might be sinking a little too much optimism into their impressive win at the Giants last week. Their defense still isn't very good and they've still only won 2 games. I've benched Jahvid Best for the season, so I'm figuring Shaun Hill and Calvin Johnson should be the main offensive players. Dallas may as well give a lot of work to Felix Jones and maybe they will; Fred Jackson tore this defense up last week.
Browns at Jaguars: The Browns are better than their record, the Jaguars are worse. No Mike Sims-Walker for Jacksonville, and although Joshua Cribbs may play for Cleveland, he'll be doing so on three dislocated toes, which sounds pretty darn painful. Peyton Hillis should be pretty good and I'd actually consider Colt McCoy against Jacksonville's weak secondary.
Cardinals at Kansas City: I hate to disrespect any NFC West team too greatly, because at the end of the year one of them will be hosting a playoff game. But I'm confident saying it will not be Arizona. Beanie Wells will apparently play, but I wouldn't use him. Larry Fitzgerald is the only Cardinal to really consider. Arizona has nothing on defense right now, so I'd use pretty much everyone for Kansas City.
Packers at Vikings: I may be proven wrong, but I think everyone is ranking Brett Favre too low this week. It's his last meaningful game, most likely, and certainly the last game he'll really be fired up to play well in. He flopped last week, but there were extenuating circumstances (receivers falling down all over the place), plus the Bears clearly are playing great defense right now. I'm starting him. Sidney Rice may play, Percy Harvin will. For Green Bay, well, their offense should be pretty good too. Donald Driver will probably play, but I'd rather use James Jones at this point.
Texans at Jets: Can I really bench Andre Johnson? I probably won't, just because I'd be doing so for Austin Collie, who I'm not sure can be trusted coming off a concussion. But he'll match up with Darrelle Revis and it's a real worry. No Jerricho Cotchery for the Jets, which helps the outlook for the team's other receivers against a defense that's all-time bad. I need good numbers out of Shonn Greene before using him, personally, but the opportunity should be there this week. Matt Schaub will play, Owen Daniels won't.
Raiders at Steelers: I'd probably use Darren McFadden anyway. Zach Miller, I'd probably avoid until he proves healthy. Considered the Steelers in our suicide pool (only six of us left), but opted against them; the Raiders might just be for real (and imagine if Janikowski makes that short field goal early in the year at Arizona).
Washington at Tennessee: Should be lots of passing this week. Washington will use a committee of Keiland Williams and Clinton Portis at tailback, and there shouldn't be much production regardless. Williams will get most of the work, though. Pretty much have to use Titans players after the way Washington's defense got worked over against the Eagles on Monday. No Kenny Britt; Randy Moss should turn in his monthly good game.
Seahawks at Saints: Seattle will use Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett; I'd switch the rankings on them. Saints will use a committee of runners, with former Seahawk Julius Jones perhaps getting more work. Reggie Bush is still uncertain to play, and there's really no need to rush him back for this easy win for the Saints. Love the passing offense this week. No Jeremy Shockey, making Dave Thomas a fill-in option (although Jimmy Graham will also play).
Bucs at 49ers: Two impressive young quarterbacks, two hard-nosed running backs. This could be one of the more enjoyable football games to watch this weekend -- no, really! Some talented young players out there for both teams. I'm a little wary of Mike Williams here, but Raheem Morris says he won't be benched for his little DUI arrest last week, so I'll trust that and use him unless I have a comparable option.
Falcons at Rams: Upset special! I'm buying into the Rams. I'd have them as division champions if they'd pulled out that win at San Francisco last week. Passing games should be better than running games this week.
Colts at Patriots: Shocking this game isn't in primetime. Huge game though, as it is every year, and I like both offenses. I've got Garcon and Collie in one league, and Collie is better but Garcon is healthier. Colts will again go with Donald Brown and Javarris James most likely, although they probably won't run much anyway. New England's offense should be fine; I'd even use the marginal BenJarvus Green-Ellis in this matchup.
Giants at Eagles: Just in case you didn't hear enough about awesome Michael Vick was last week, get ready for a few more hours of it. Still, I give the Giants pass rush a shot to slow him down. No Steve Smith for New York. Should be a good game, but I have to say I'm a little tired of these teams being in primetime.
Broncos at Chargers: The Broncos come off a blowout win over Kansas City, so what better time to pick against them in our suicide pool? I'm not overly confident in this pick, but it seemed like a good idea at the time. Chargers continue to have a lot of injured receivers. I wouldn't want to use any of them, given the Monday night nature of this game. Probably no Ryan Mathews, so I'm starting Mike Tolbert where I've got him. Broncos offense should be fine, even if it's while playing from behind. Philip Rivers for MVP.
Enjoy the games.
Posted by Adam Bjork | Nov. 19 at 10:54 PM
Andy, You comment the Ravens will roll over the Panthers and to start McGahee if you got him. With your consideration of playing Tolbert are you thinking that gives Tolbert a better match up than Ray Rice?
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Nov. 19 at 10:58 PM
Andy: I agree with you on Favre and I think Minny puts up a huge effort vs. GB and maybe even wins the game. This is their last shot, and I can't see them going down without a fight. Some lineup questions for this week: QB: Eli @ PHI or Flacco @ CAR (I'm concerned, as you are, that BAL gets up big and mails in the 2nd half and I expect NYG-PHI to be competitive)? RB: Forsett @ NO or pick up FA (Ke. Williams @ TEN or Ivory vs. SEA)? TE: Winslow @ SF or pick up FA (Gresham vs. BUF, Watson @ JAX, H. Miller vs. OAK, Boss @ PHI (he has scored in last 2 and 3 of last 4 vs. Philly), Gronk vs. IND, Thomas/Graham vs. SEA)? RB: Blount @ SF or Ke. Williams @ TEN or pick up FA (Ivory or Barber vs. DET)? FLEX: M. Thomas vs. CLE, Floyd vs. DEN, Gaffney @ SD or pick up FA (M. Williams-SEA @ NO, Ja. Jones @ MIN, Murphy or Ford-OAK @ PIT, Br. Gibson vs. ATL)? Which of Thomas, Floyd or Gaffney would you drop if FA? Thanks much.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Nov. 19 at 11:18 PM
Adam - I think the Ravens will probably beat the Panthers about 24-7 and run for close to 200 yards. Starting Rice is a given, I figure McGahee will get a lot of carries in the second half. I like Tolbert, but not more than Rice. Peter - I'd use Eli, pretty much any week. I like Forsett with Williams second. TE I'd use Winslow but Watson is a close second. Can't trust those other TEs. I'd use Blount given those other options, definitely. The FLEX spots, I'm not crazy about any of them, and heard Floyd had a setback. I'd probably rank Thomas No. 1, with Sims-Walker out, and James Jones No. 2. So I guess it's Gaffney I'd drop, but I might just go with Thomas and not have to worry about it.
Posted by BILL REHOR | Nov. 20 at 01:50 AM
So I guess you guys aren't buying the "Reggie Bush revenge against Pete Carroll" story line? I noticed there was no mention of him in your T.O./Roy Williams article, but some believe he's been targeting this date to get back at Carroll for hanging him out to dry in the Heisman deal.
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Nov. 20 at 02:13 AM
If I knew Bush was playing and healthy, I'd be interested, but I think it's more important to Sean Payton to have him healthy down the stretch than give him a lot of carries in a game New Orleans should win easily.
Posted by George Taylor | Nov. 20 at 02:18 AM
Using more than just the pure #'s and weekly rankings, who would you start in a standard 10%yds, 5pt-TD league? Tomlinson vs Hou, Foster vs NYJ, Benson vs Buf or Turner vs STL? Have to play 3 of those 4(already eliminated Lynch from consideration) any suggestions?
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Nov. 20 at 03:09 AM
George - I'm very much matchup-influenced with running backs, especially ones that don't catch passes or that give way to another back in that role. So I'd use Benson (best matchup) and Foster (full-time guy who also catches passes) as my top 2. I'd probably go with Tomlinson over Turner; better matchup, part of the passing game. I know it's not a PPR, but I think those guys will have more total yards than Turner, and the Rams have only allowed 3 rushing TDs all year. I guess if you want to use Turner, I'd bench Tomlinson, who will share work with Greene. Good luck.
Posted by L.B. Graham | Nov. 20 at 03:21 AM
Andy - have a RB dilemma this week. Since I sat Marshall on Thursday (good thing), I have to get an RB2 and a flex out of the following three: Blount, Best and Williams (Keiland). We're a PPR league, so I've tentatively got Best & Williams since catching 3-5 passes is equivalent to running 30 to 50 yards, but would you put in Blount instead of one of them?
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Nov. 20 at 03:47 AM
L.b. - I've given up on best. I guess he's safer, but he's burned me so often I'm done with him. I'd gamble on blount and williams.
Posted by Roy Sherman | Nov. 20 at 05:55 AM
Andy: Of these three WRs; Fitzgerald (@KC), Nicks (@Phi), DJax (NYG), which two would you start? They're listed at 5, 6,& 7 on the Friday night weekly supplement (PPR). Thanks.
Posted by Adam Bjork | Nov. 20 at 06:13 AM
I hadn't considered Tolbert up until now so thanks for clarifying... now that I read your input on starting Foster against the Jets which combo would you go with this week? Foster, Ray Rice, or Jamaal Charles?
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Nov. 20 at 06:25 AM
I like rice and charles most this week
Posted by Duane Stay | Nov. 20 at 07:12 AM
Andy- Large league, high performance with a flex player. James Jones or Burleson. Driver might or might not go, but is still gimpy. Vikes sinking and Dallas showing signs of life. Oh, The Agony! Playing my arch rival!
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Nov. 20 at 08:41 AM
Duane- i'd use jones. More overall offensive potential. Driver won't play full-time, and jones will be on the field a lot regardless. Detroit scored 12 points in Buffalo.
Posted by GREGORY KANTER | Nov. 20 at 03:57 PM
Who would u start I have a flex position holmes jets Tolbert sd welker ne. Which 2. Also I have Wayne should I bench him for any of those three mentioned
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Nov. 20 at 08:17 PM
Gregory - with mathews out I like tolbert a lot, I think he has 100 yard, 2 TD potential. Holmes also has a great matchup, but I couldn't bench Wayne for him.
Posted by A.J. EVANS | Nov. 20 at 10:44 PM
I have Eli Manning and Tom Brady and have been playing the matchups all year. Even when I pick wrong, I still do okay. But who do you think is the better start today?
Posted by PETER DEBIASE | Nov. 20 at 10:45 PM
Andy: There's a report out this morning from "The Czar" (I know he's not the most reliable guy in the world) that Bush will not play. Personally, I see no reason for NO to risk him against a team that they should beat handily with or without Bush. This game has an eerily similar feel to the week 6 NO-TB game where NO got up early and Chris Ivory put up 175 total yards, most coming in the 2nd half when the Saints ran out the clock. What are your thoughts on Ivory if Bush does not play? Does the presence of Betts and J. Jones hurt him that badly?
Posted by ANDY RICHARDSON | Nov. 21 at 12:42 AM
Peter, I don't see any reason to count on Ivory getting more than a third of the snaps, so I wouldn't use him. A.J., I'd typically go with Brady in that Pats-Colts game that could be more high-scoring than Giants-Eagles.
Add a Comment
Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.
To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.