Fantasy News

There’s a lot of talk every year about tall wide receivers and fade routes around the goal line. “This guy is 6-foot-5, so the team is sure to feature him around the end zone.” Stuff like that. But most of that talk, as far as I can tell, is vastly overrated.

I’m working on the Giants story draft today, and every year I seem to be looking at Plaxico Burress’ role around the goal line, only to be surprised at how poorly he actually has played (as least based purely on numbers). Randy Moss, while he was terrific last year, is another tall, heralded receiver who doesn’t play nearly as well as you might expect in most years in that part of the field.

In fact, the opposite appears to be true. Rather than trying to throw fade routes into the corners of the end zone, teams seem to have more success getting the ball to smaller guys working the middle of the field – slot guys like Hines Ward, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Wes Welker.

The following chart shows all wide receivers who had at least four passes thrown their way when their teams were inside the 5-yard line last year. There aren’t a lot of plays in that area, so two-point conversions are included. The players are in order by the completion percentage of balls thrown their way.

To show the difference between short and tall receivers, I’ve put in bold the name of every player who’s 6-foot-3 or taller. In general, they tend to appear lower on the list.

Pct.
86% T.Holt
83% A.Boldin
80% R.Curry
80% T.Houshmandzadeh
78% R.Moss
67% H.Ward
62% M.Colston
60% C.Johnson
60% P.Crayton
60% W.Welker
50% B.Edwards
50% L.Coles
50% L.Fitzgerald
50% J.Gaffney
33% P.Burress
33% T.Owens
29% Bry.Johnson
25% B.Berrian
25% D.Darling
20% M.Jones
14% B.Marshall
0% V.Jackson

--Ian Allan

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