Fantasy Index Scheduletron -- strength-of-schedule analysis
Below, see the various Strength-of-Schedule charts for the 2011 season. It looks like the teams in the NFC West and AFC North will play the easiest schedules. The Steelers and Ravens, for example, will play half of their 16 games against the Bengals, Browns (twice each) and those four NFC West teams (that all finished with losing records last year).
The Panthers, Bills and Broncos all had tough seasons in 2010, but they project to play some of the hardest schedules. Carolina gets to play the other three last-place teams in the NFC (Washington, Minnesota, Arizona), but it will play six games against its own division, where every other team won at least 10 games. Its other games are the NFC North, which sent two teams to the NFC Championship game, and the AFC South (Colts, Jaguars, Texans, Titans). Welcome to the NFL, Cam Newton.
All of the charts:
2011 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE -- WINS/LOSSES
Strength of schedule for next season, based on how teams performed in 2010. Arizona, Baltimore, San Franciscio and Cincinnati project to play the easiest schedules. Carolina, Buffalo, Detroit and Denver project to play the hardest.
Win Loss Pct
113 143 .441 Arizona
117 139 .457 Baltimore
119 137 .465 San Francisco
121 135 .473 Cincinnati
121 135 .473 Pittsburgh
121 135 .473 Washington
122 134 .477 St. Louis
125 131 .488 Tennessee
125 131 .488 Seattle
126 130 .492 Oakland
126 130 .492 Atlanta
126 130 .492 Cleveland
126 130 .492 NY Giants
127 129 .496 Tampa Bay
128 128 .500 Chicago
129 127 .504 New England
129 127 .504 Dallas
129 127 .504 Philadelphia
130 126 .508 New Orleans
130 126 .508 Green Bay
132 124 .516 Miami
132 124 .516 Houston
132 124 .516 Minnesota
133 123 .520 Indianapolis
133 123 .520 San Diego
133 123 .520 NY Jets
133 123 .520 Jacksonville
133 123 .520 Kansas City
133 123 .520 Denver
133 123 .520 Detroit
137 119 .535 Buffalo
142 114 .555 Carolina
2011 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE -- DEFENSE
Strength of schedule for next year, based on how many points were allowed by teams in 2010. Washington, Tennessee and Miami project to face the softest defenses. Detroit, Denver and Minnesota project to face the toughest defenses.
Points
23.3 Washington
23.1 Tennessee
22.9 Miami
22.9 NY Jets
22.7 NY Giants
22.6 San Francisco
22.6 Philadelphia
22.6 Dallas
22.5 New England
22.3 Pittsburgh
22.2 St. Louis
22.2 Arizona
22.1 Atlanta
22.1 Buffalo
22.1 Cincinnati
22.0 San Diego
22.0 Baltimore
21.9 Oakland
21.9 Tampa Bay
21.8 Cleveland
21.7 Kansas City
21.7 Indianapolis
21.7 Seattle
21.7 Houston
21.6 New Orleans
21.5 Chicago
21.5 Green Bay
21.4 Jacksonville
21.3 Carolina
21.1 Minnesota
21.1 Denver
20.9 Detroit
2011 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE -- RUSHING
This chart is similar to the one above, but dialed in specifically to rushing production, with yards per game, rushing touchdowns per season, and expected fantasy points per game, using the system of 6 points for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards.
Tennessee and Minnesota (Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson) project to see the softest run defenses in 2011; Arizona, Cleveland and Seattle project to see the hardest.
Yds TDR FPPG
120 14.3 17.3 Tennessee
119 14.3 17.2 Minnesota
120 13.8 17.1 San Diego
120 13.4 17.0 Miami
119 13.1 16.9 NY Jets
117 13.7 16.8 Atlanta
116 13.9 16.8 Kansas City
116 13.8 16.8 Oakland
117 13.3 16.7 Chicago
117 12.9 16.6 Carolina
113 13.8 16.5 Green Bay
117 12.6 16.4 Dallas
116 12.9 16.4 New England
115 12.8 16.3 New Orleans
112 13.0 16.1 Tampa Bay
116 11.9 16.1 NY Giants
116 11.8 16.1 San Francisco
115 11.8 15.9 Houston
113 12.2 15.9 Denver
113 12.0 15.8 Philadelphia
113 12.1 15.8 Washington
112 12.4 15.8 Detroit
115 11.4 15.8 Cincinnati
115 11.2 15.7 Pittsburgh
112 11.9 15.6 Indianapolis
111 12.1 15.6 Buffalo
112 11.4 15.5 St. Louis
110 11.6 15.4 Jacksonville
109 11.4 15.2 Baltimore
110 10.9 15.0 Seattle
108 11.0 14.9 Cleveland
108 10.6 14.8 Arizona
2011 STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE -- PASSING
Strength of schedule tailored to passing production, with yards per game, passing touchdowns per season, and expected fantasy points per game, using the system of 6 points for TDs and 1 for every 10 yards.
The Steelers, Eagles and Giants project to face the worst pass defenses; the Vikings, Lions and Packers project to see the hardest.
Yds TDP FPPG
246 24.4 33.8 Pittsburgh
244 24.7 33.7 Philadelphia
242 25.1 33.6 NY Giants
238 26.1 33.6 Washington
247 23.6 33.5 Indianapolis
243 24.6 33.5 Arizona
236 26.3 33.4 Miami
243 24.1 33.3 Cincinnati
242 24.3 33.3 San Francisco
239 25.0 33.3 Dallas
236 25.4 33.1 NY Jets
241 23.8 33.0 St. Louis
238 24.6 33.0 Buffalo
241 23.3 32.9 Cleveland
242 23.0 32.8 Seattle
238 23.9 32.7 Tennessee
240 23.2 32.7 Baltimore
232 23.9 32.1 San Diego
236 22.5 32.1 Jacksonville
238 22.0 32.1 Tampa Bay
236 22.4 32.0 New Orleans
235 22.4 31.9 Houston
227 24.5 31.9 New England
237 21.7 31.8 Carolina
231 23.1 31.8 Oakland
234 22.3 31.7 Atlanta
226 22.8 31.1 Chicago
225 22.6 31.0 Denver
224 22.5 30.8 Kansas City
227 21.4 30.8 Green Bay
227 21.4 30.7 Detroit
229 20.3 30.5 Minnesota
—Ian Allan
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