Tebow; fantasy potential
Posted Feb. 26 at 12:47 AM
There’s been some interesting back-and-forth coming out of Denver in the last week. Mike Lombardi of the NFL Network writes that most of the franchise isn’t sold on Tim Tebow, and John Fox came out and said Kyle Orton is the team’s starter.
One mock draft even has the team selecting Cam Newton in the draft.
I will not attempt to answer the question of who’ll start on opening day. I will, however, point out that Tebow is a very productive and active runner, which will help him tremendously in fantasy circles if the Broncos decide to go with him as there starter.
Tebow last year averaged 66 rushing yards as a starter, with 3 TDs in those three games. In typical fantasy formats, that’s equivalent to about 132 passing yards per game, with an extra 4-5 TD passes.
If and when the Broncos make Tebow their starter, he’ll probably average 40-plus rushing yards per game, with maybe a touchdown every other week (he’s very good as a runner around the goal line). That will help his fantasy value tremendous in a lot of fantasy formats.
In leagues based on 6 points for TDs, 4 for TD passes, 1 point for every 20 passing yards and 1 point for every 10 rushing yards, Tebow was the 2nd-best quarterback in the entire league last year when stats are adjusted to account for games played.
Granted, he played only three games, and granted one of those was against the hapless Houston Texans, but Tebow has fantasy potential. Far more potential fantasy-wise, it seems, than as a traditional NFL quarterback.
QUARTERBACKS: FANTASY POINTS PER GAME, 2011
St PYd RYd TD FPG
11 258 52 2.64 30.5 Michael Vick
3 217 66 2.33 28.8 Tim Tebow
1 251 13 3.00 25.9 Matt Flynn
3 280 2 2.33 24.9 Rex Grossman
15 261 24 2.13 24.5 Aaron Rodgers
16 294 1 2.06 23.1 Peyton Manning
16 294 3 1.88 22.7 Philip Rivers
16 289 0 2.06 22.7 Drew Brees
16 244 2 2.31 21.8 Tom Brady
12 267 15 1.58 21.5 Ben Roethlisberger
6 268 6 1.83 21.3 Tony Romo
13 281 8 1.54 21.0 Kyle Orton
10 260 13 1.60 20.9 Shaun Hill
9 242 16 1.67 20.8 Jon Kitna
16 250 4 1.94 20.7 Eli Manning
Posted by Brian Grzybowski | Feb. 26 at 04:57 AM
I think it's worth mentioning that he also doesn't shy away from contact. He's not a slider. I would think there is a significant potential for injury if he does average 40+ yards rushing per game. It didn't seem like he had figured out the vast increase in speed and size that players have at the NFL level. It looked, to me, that when he ran he was somewhat surprised that linebackers were able to close in on him instead of breaking free with only smaller DBs around to bring him down.
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Feb. 26 at 05:08 AM
Good point. That's the risk with the runners -- most notably Vick, and Tebow will be in that group if he ever becomes a starter. Any quarterback running for 500-plus yards per year will be far more likely to miss games. So maybe Josh Freeman has it right in Tampa; he's a big, mobile quarterback who could run for 700 yards and 7 TDs, but he's used the run less than expected so far.
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