Ian Allan
We were talking the other day about the decline the running game. In the 2011, the lowest percentage of touchdowns ever was scored on running plays, while TD passes were up at an all-time high average of 23.5 per team. Only eight running backs scored 10-plus touchdowns; the last time fewer than eight backs scored in double digits was 1994.
A reader posted a question and asked about 10-TD scorers.
But let me twist it around a little. When, namely, do running backs tend to put up their biggest numbers – when are they at their best?
It’s my belief that you tend to see the best numbers out of players at this position when they are in the third, fourth, fifth and sixth seasons. Not every running back, of course, will put up his best numbers in that area, but that seems to be a popular range.
Look at the chart below. It shows all running backs since the merger who have finished the season with 2,000 or more total yards, 400 touches (running and receiving) or 20 TDs. When you slice it that way, you see a lot more players in that window of 3-6 years than anywhere else.
That said, what running backs fit in that window this year?
Backs entering their 3rd year
Arian Foster
Knowshon Moreno
Beanie Wells
LeSean McCoy
Shonn Greene
Backs entering their 4th year
Darren McFadden
Felix Jones
Chris Johnson
Rashard Mendenhall
Jonathan Stewart
Matt Forte
Ray Rice
Jamaal Charles
Backs entering their 5th year
Adrian Peterson
Pierre Thomas
Marshawn Lynch
Backs entering their 6th year
DeAngelo Williams
Maurice Jones-Drew
Reggie Bush
Joseph Addai
Heralded backs who are now past that point
Cedric Benson
Michael Turner
Ronnie Brown
Steven Jackson
Frank Gore
Tatum Bell
BIG-TIME RUNNING BACKS
Running backs finishing with 2,000-plus total yards, 400 touches or 20 touchdowns since the merger in 1970.
Year 1 players
1983 Eric Dickerson, Rams
1999 Edgerrin James, Ind.
Year 2 players
2009 Ray Rice, Balt.
2002 LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.
2006 Frank Gore, S.F.
1984 Eric Dickerson, Rams
1991 Emmitt Smith, Dall.
2000 Edgerrin James, Ind.
2010 Arian Foster, Hou.
Year 3 players
1981 William Andrews, Atl.
1979 Wilbert Montgomery, Phi.
1977 Walter Payton, Chi.
1997 Terrell Davis, Den.
2006 Steven Jackson, St.L.
1985 Roger Craig, S.F.
2005 Larry Johnson, K.C.
2003 LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.
1992 Emmitt Smith, Dall.
2003 Deuce McAllister, N.O.
2008 DeAngelo Williams, Car.
1975 Chuck Foreman, Minn.
2009 Chris Johnson, Tenn.
1992 Barry Foster, Pitt.
Year 4 players
1991 Thurman Thomas, Buff.
1998 Terrell Davis, Den.
2002 Ricky Williams, Mia.
1985 Marcus Allen, Raiders
2006 Larry Johnson, K.C.
1985 Joe Morris, NYG
1984 James Wilder, T.B.
2003 Jamal Lewis, Balt.
1988 Herschel Walker, Dall.
1985 Gerald Riggs, Atl.
1986 Eric Dickerson, Rams
1998 Curtis Martin, NYJ
Year 5 players
1983 William Andrews, Atl.
1979 Walter Payton, Chi.
1992 Thurman Thomas, Buff.
2004 Shaun Alexander, Sea.
2003 Ricky Williams, Mia.
2001 Priest Holmes, K.C.
1973 O.J. Simpson, Buff.
1998 Marshall Faulk, Ind.
2005 LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.
1985 James Wilder, T.B.
1998 Jamal Anderson, Atl.
1994 Emmitt Smith, Dall.
2000 Eddie George, Tenn.
1999 Curtis Martin, NYJ
Year 6 players
1993 Thurman Thomas, Buff.
2005 Shaun Alexander, Sea.
1988 Roger Craig, S.F.
1996 Ricky Watters, Phil.
2002 Priest Holmes, K.C.
1999 Marshall Faulk, St.L.
2006 LaDainian Tomlinson, S.D.
1998 Garrison Hearst, S.F.
1988 Eric Dickerson, Ind.
1995 Emmitt Smith, Dall.
2004 Edgerrin James, Ind.
2007 Brian Westbrook, Phil.
1994 Barry Sanders, Det.
2003 Ahman Green, G.B.
Year 7 players
1996 Terry Allen, Wash.
2003 Priest Holmes, K.C.
1975 O.J. Simpson, Buff.
2000 Marshall Faulk, St.L.
2005 Edgerrin James, Ind.
Year 8 players
2004 Tiki Barber, NYG
2001 Marshall Faulk, St.L.
Year 9 players
1983 Walter Payton, Chi.
2005 Tiki Barber, NYG
1997 Barry Sanders, Det.
Year 10 players
1984 Walter Payton, Chi.
2006 Tiki Barber, NYG
2004 Curtis Martin, NYJ
Year 11 players
1985 Walter Payton, Chi.
Year 12 players
none
Year 13 players
1983 John Riggins, Wash.
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Posted by Moishe Steigmann | Mar. 04 at 02:40 AM
This is great -- thank you for all the follow-up on my question. And, I almost glanced over the last RB in the "Heralded backs who are now past that point" section. Nice. :)
Posted by DAVID GARRICK | Mar. 04 at 03:02 AM
Why is Arian Foster not listed among backs entering their third year, and why is Pierre Thomas not on the list of backs entering their fifth year? Are undrafted guys somehow not part of this analysis?
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Mar. 04 at 03:11 AM
@David. Nice catches. I will add those names in. (Foster is already listed as a successful 2nd-year player -- I think he's the No. 1 pick overall next year -- but in compiling the list of 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th-year backs, I just went off the list of drafted players).
Posted by Bob HAYS | Mar. 04 at 04:12 AM
Would you not include Peyton Hillis entering his 4th year?
Posted by IAN ALLAN | Mar. 04 at 04:23 AM
@Bob: Hillis is entering his 4th year and was productive last season, but with the Browns having a new coach and new offense, I expect he'll be rolled backed into a lesser role this year. Other backs in that window that I didn't list include Laurence Maroney and Donald Brown. (I am not, by the way, suggesting that all of those backs in the 3-6 year window will have big seasons; Reggie Bush, most notably, is listed more because he was once drafted No. 2 overall).
Posted by Geoff Maleman | Mar. 04 at 06:14 AM
I love the fact that you added Tatum Bell to the mix .. you are hilarious! No one will forget that cover!!!