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Is an NFL team at the top of the draft better off selecting quarterback Matt Ryan of Boston College or tackle Jake Long of Michigan?
Put me down for one vote for Long. I’m of the school of thought that you do not select a quarterback unless you’re confident you’re getting a talented guy who you know will work with your coaches and in your system. There are just so many busts at that position. The batting average is better – at lot better – with offensive tackles.
Below, I’ve to put some numbers behind this theory. I looked at quarterbacks and offensive linemen who were selected with top-10 picks in the last 20 years. For each player, I gave him a grade from 0 to 4 stars, based on how his career played out (or is playing out).
0 Stars: Bust / wasted pick
1 Stars: Team definitely wished it had picked someone else
2 Stars: Too early to grade or average player
3 Stars: Good player but not a superstar
4 Stars: Great player
Based on the grades I assigned the players in this sample set, tackle graded out as a better position than quarterback. The 26 tackles, on average, earned a score of 2.6 stars on my grading system. Quarterbacks were down at 1.7 stars.
Totaling some of the numbers up: (And I’m adding this a few hours later, as I’ve gotten back around to thinking about it additionally). For quarterbacks, 14 of the 24 picks are definitely misses, with two (JaMarcus Russell, Matt Leinart) still pending. Only five of the 24 were no-regret sure-fire hits.
For offensive tackles, the numbers are definitely better. Only 7 of 22 picks (with four pending) are misses. And 12 of the 22 choices turned into very solid building-block type players. (And observant readers will note that I’ve upgraded Tony Boselli from a 3 to a 4 – he had an injury-shortened career, but he was definitely a good player).
Bottom line: Ryan is not a “can’t-miss” quarterback like Peyton Manning. But Jake Long looks like a safe bet to be a very good tackle for years and years. I’d definitely select Long before Ryan in this draft.
OFFENSIVE TACKLES, 1988-2007 (top 10 picks)
(with score, name, year selected, and name of NFL team)
1 Dave Cadigan (1988) Jets
2 Eric Moore (1988) Giants
4 Paul Gruber (1988) Buccaneers
0 Tony Mandarich (1989) Packers
4 Richmond Webb (1990) Dolphins
0 Charles McRae (1991) Buccaneers
1 Antone Davis (1991) Eagles
2 Ray Roberts (1992) Seahawks
3 Bob Whitfield (1992) Falcons
3 Lincoln Kennedy (1993) Falcons
4 Willie Roaf (1993) Saints
4 Tony Boselli (1995) Jaguars
4 Jonathan Ogden (1996) Ravens
4 Willie Anderson (1996) Bengals
4 Walter Jones (1997) Seahawks
3 Kyle Turley (1998) Saints
4 Chris Samuels (2000) Redskins
1 Leonard Davis (2001) Cardinals
0 Mike Williams (2002) Bills
4 Bryant McKinnie (2002) Vikings
4 Levi Jones (2002) Bengals
4 Jordan Gross (2003) Panthers
0 Robert Gallery (2004) Raiders
2 D'Brickashaw Ferguson (2006) Jets
2 Levi Brown (2007) Cardinals
4 Joe Thomas (2007) Browns
QUARTERBACKS, 1988-2007 (top 10 picks)
(with score, name, year selected, and name of NFL team)
4 Troy Aikman (1989) Cowboys
0 Andre Ware (1990) Lions
1 Jeff George (1990) Colts
0 David Klingler (1992) Bengals
0 Rick Mirer (1993) Seahawks
3 Drew Bledsoe (1993) Patriots
0 Heath Shuler (1994) Redskins
1 Trent Dilfer (1994) Buccaneers
1 Kerry Collins (1995) Panthers
4 Steve McNair (1995) Oilers
0 Ryan Leaf (1998) Chargers
4 Peyton Manning (1998) Colts
0 Tim Couch (1999) Browns
0 Akili Smith (1999) Bengals
4 Donovan McNabb (1999) Eagles
3 Michael Vick (2001) Falcons
0 David Carr (2002) Texans
0 Joey Harrington (2002) Lions
1 Byron Leftwich (2003) Jaguars
3 Carson Palmer (2003) Bengals
3 Philip Rivers (2004) Chargers*
4 Eli Manning (2004) Giants*
1 Alex D. Smith (2005) 49ers
2 Matt Leinart (2006) Cardinals
3 Vince Young (2006) Titans
2 JaMarcus Russell (2007) Raiders
*-- Traded for each other on draft day.
—Ian Allan
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