Ian Allan

I spent some time on the weekend playing around with the stats on all these rookie quarterback prospects. There are eight of them with the potential to go in the first two rounds, so this is a big year.

Some of the numbers on these guys jump out at me. For Jake Locker, for example, his completion percentage is unusually low for an elite quarterback prospect. Blaine Gabbert has the lowest yards-per-attempt average (and Cam Newton is by far the highest). For Ryan Mallett, I see that he’s a downfield gunner. He averaged 16.5 yards per completion in 2009 at Arkansas. That’s a heck of a number. Then I noticed that the three best quarterbacks (among first-round guys) in that category in the last 15 years have been Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith and Cade McNown – that makes that stat look less impressive.

But I digress. Which of these stats should we be focusing on anyway?

I put the stats for all of these quarterbacks into a spreadsheet and compared them with the final-year numbers of all the other quarterbacks selected in the first round in the last 15 years. Just for the heck of it, I tossed Drew Brees and Tom Brady in there as well, since they’ve had great pro careers. And I included Sam Bradford’s sophomore numbers, since he hardly played as a junior.

For that list of quarterbacks, I highlighted in green guys who’ve had great careers – Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, etc. I put the busts in red. And I put the in-between guys in other colors. Then I started sorting the database in every possible way, seeing which stat tended to do the best job of sending the most good quarterbacks to the top.

The results surprised me. Stats like completion percentage, yards per attempt and touchdowns didn’t seem to matter. When you sort the stuff that way, you get too many great quarterbacks – guys like Peyton Manning – appearing too low, and too many busts appearing high on the list.

Even “passer rating”, which is a combination of four stat charts didn’t seem to do much. The quarterbacks were almost random in order of how well they’d fare as pros.

The best stats, to my surprise, were based more on quantity rather than quality. Pass attempts, completions and (to a lesser degree) passing yards. Those were the ones that tended to do the best job of pushing the good quarterbacks to the top and the guys who didn’t pan out to the bottom.

Note that there weren’t some misses in there – Tim Couch and Rex Grossman were busy in their final years – but these were the stats that at least got most of the good quarterbacks need the top.

I am not reposting all of the numbers – there are too many of them. But I will show the leaders in each category, with the 2011 draft prospects in bold.


PASS ATTEMPTS
   654   2008   Matt Ryan
   553   1999   Tim Couch
   521   2008   Joe Flacco
   512   2001   * Drew Brees (2nd Rd)
   503   2003   Rex Grossman
   495   2004   Ben Roethlisberger
   491   2003   Byron Leftwich
   489   2003   Carson Palmer
   483   2004   Philip Rivers
   483   2010   * Sam Bradford (2008 numbers)
   477   1998   Peyton Manning
   476   2002   David Carr
   475   2011   Blaine Gabbert
   467   2007   Brady Quinn

COMPLETIONS
   400   1999   Tim Couch
   388   2008   Matt Ryan
   348   2004   Philip Rivers
   342   2004   Ben Roethlisberger
   331   2003   Byron Leftwich
   331   2008   Joe Flacco
   328   2010   * Sam Bradford (2008 numbers)
   309   2003   Carson Palmer
   309   2001   * Drew Brees (2nd Rd)
   308   2002   David Carr
   301   2011   Blaine Gabbert
   296   1999   Daunte Culpepper
   292   2000   Chad Pennington
   289   2007   Brady Quinn
   287   1998   Peyton Manning
   287   2003   Rex Grossman
   283   2006   Matt Leinart
   275   2004   Eli Manning
   273   2006   Jay Cutler
   266   2011   Ryan Mallett

COMPLETION PERCTENAGE
   73.6   1999   Daunte Culpepper
   72.3   1999   Tim Couch
   72.0   2004   Philip Rivers
   69.6   2005   Jason Campbell
   69.1   2004   Ben Roethlisberger
   67.9   2010   * Sam Bradford (2008 numbers)
   67.8   2007   JaMarcus Russell
   67.8   2010   Tim Tebow
   67.5   2005   Alex Smith
   67.4   2000   Chad Pennington
   67.4   2003   Byron Leftwich
   66.1   2011   Andy Dalton
   66.1   2005   Aaron Rodgers
   66.1   2011   Cam Newton
   65.8   2009   Mark Sanchez
   65.7   2006   Matt Leinart
   65.2   2006   Vince Young
   64.9   2011   Colin Kaepernick
   64.7   2011   Ryan Mallett

PASSING YARDS
   4720   2010   * Sam Bradford (2008 numbers)
   4507   2008   Matt Ryan
   4491   2004   Philip Rivers
   4486   2004   Ben Roethlisberger
   4299   2002   David Carr
   4275   1999   Tim Couch
   4268   2003   Byron Leftwich
   4263   2008   Joe Flacco
   4006   2000   Chad Pennington
   3942   2003   Carson Palmer
   3869   2011   Ryan Mallett
   3819   1998   Peyton Manning
   3815   2006   Matt Leinart
   3690   1999   Daunte Culpepper
   3668   2001   * Drew Brees (2nd Rd)
   3637   1998   Ryan Leaf
   3600   2004   Eli Manning

NFL PASSER RATING
(includes four categories – TD percentage, Interception percentage, yards per attempt and completion percentage).
   127.0   2010   * Sam Bradford (2008 numbers)
   125.5   2005   Alex Smith
   124.9   2011   Cam Newton
   118.3   2004   Philip Rivers
   117.7   1999   Daunte Culpepper
   116.9   2002   David Carr
   115.7   2005   Jason Campbell
   115.4   2011   Andy Dalton
   115.3   1999   Akili Smith
   114.5   2000   Chad Pennington
   114.3   2007   JaMarcus Russell
   113.9   2004   Ben Roethlisberger
   113.0   2009   Mark Sanchez
   112.7   2010   Tim Tebow
   110.5   1999   Donovan McNabb
   109.2   2006   Vince Young
   109.0   2011   Ryan Mallett
   108.7   2011   Ricky Stanzi

TOUCHDOWN PASSES
   50   2010   * Sam Bradford (2008 numbers)
   42   2002   David Carr
   38   2000   Chad Pennington
   37   2007   Brady Quinn
   37   2004   Ben Roethlisberger
   36   1998   Peyton Manning
   36   1999   Tim Couch
   34   2004   Philip Rivers
   34   2009   Mark Sanchez
   33   1998   Ryan Leaf
   33   2003   Carson Palmer
   33   2004   J.P. Losman
   32   2005   Alex Smith
   32   2011   Ryan Mallett
   31   2008   Matt Ryan
   30   2011   Cam Newton
   30   1999   Akili Smith
   30   2003   Byron Leftwich
   29   2004   Eli Manning

INTERCEPTIONS
   0   2010   Sam Bradford
   4   2005   Alex Smith
   5   2010   Tim Tebow
   5   1999   Donovan McNabb
   5   2008   Joe Flacco
   5   2002   Joey Harrington
   5   1997   Jim Druckenmiller
   6   2011   Andy Dalton
   6   2011   Ricky Stanzi
   6   2000   * Tom Brady (6th Rd)
   6   2001   Michael Vick
   7   2011   Cam Newton
   7   2004   Philip Rivers
   7   1999   Daunte Culpepper
   7   2002   David Carr
   7   2005   Jason Campbell
   7   1999   Akili Smith
   7   2007   Brady Quinn

TD-TO-INT RATIO
TD-INT
   50-8   2010   * Sam Bradford (2008 numbers)
   42-7   2002   David Carr
   37-7   2007   Brady Quinn
   32-4   2005   Alex Smith
   34-7   2004   Philip Rivers
   37-10   2004   Ben Roethlisberger
   38-12   2000   Chad Pennington
   36-11   1998   Peyton Manning
   34-10   2009   Mark Sanchez
   30-7   2011   Cam Newton
   30-7   1999   Akili Smith
   33-10   1998   Ryan Leaf
   33-10   2003   Carson Palmer
   28-7   1999   Daunte Culpepper
   27-6   2011   Andy Dalton

INTERCEPTION PERCENTAGE
   0.00%   2010   Sam Bradford
   0.96%   2008   Joe Flacco
   1.26%   2005   Alex Smith
   1.45%   2004   Philip Rivers
   1.47%   2002   David Carr
   1.50%   2007   Brady Quinn
   1.55%   2002   Joey Harrington
   1.59%   2010   Tim Tebow
   1.66%   2010   * Sam Bradford (2008 numbers)
   1.74%   2011   Ricky Stanzi
   1.74%   1999   Daunte Culpepper
   1.76%   2000   * Tom Brady (6th Rd)
   1.86%   2006   Matt Leinart
   1.89%   2011   Blaine Gabbert
   1.90%   2011   Andy Dalton

TOUCHDOWN PERCENTAGE
   10.71%   2011   Cam Newton
   10.35%   2010   * Sam Bradford (2008 numbers)
   10.09%   2005   Alex Smith
   9.29%   2009   Mark Sanchez
   9.23%   1999   Akili Smith
   8.82%   2002   David Carr
   8.80%   1998   Ryan Leaf
   8.78%   2000   Chad Pennington
   8.76%   1999   Donovan McNabb
   8.54%   2011   Andy Dalton
   8.19%   2007   JaMarcus Russell
   8.00%   2006   Vince Young
   7.92%   2007   Brady Quinn
   7.82%   2004   J.P. Losman
   7.79%   2011   Ryan Mallett
   7.59%   2005   Aaron Rodgers
   7.55%   1998   Peyton Manning
   7.47%   2004   Ben Roethlisberger

YARDS PER COMPLETION
   17.32   1998   Ryan Leaf
   17.31   1999   Akili Smith
   16.65   1999   Cade McNown
   15.43   2011   Cam Newton
   14.72   2009   Matthew Stafford
   14.58   1997   Jim Druckenmiller
   14.55   2011   Ryan Mallett
   14.41   2010   Sam Bradford
   14.39   2010   * Sam Bradford (2008 numbers)
   14.36   2005   Jason Campbell
   14.32   2006   Vince Young
   14.18   2001   Michael Vick
   13.96   2002   David Carr
   13.79   2005   Alex Smith
   13.72   2000   Chad Pennington
   13.67   2011   Andy Dalton
   13.59   2011   Ricky Stanzi

YARDS PER ATTEMPT
   10.19   2011   Cam Newton
   10.18   1999   Akili Smith
   10.00   2005   Jason Campbell
   9.77   2010   * Sam Bradford (2008 numbers)
   9.70   1998   Ryan Leaf
   9.69   1999   Cade McNown
   9.41   2011   Ryan Mallett
   9.34   2006   Vince Young
   9.31   2005   Alex Smith
   9.30   2004   Philip Rivers
   9.25   2000   Chad Pennington
   9.22   2010   Tim Tebow
   9.18   1999   Daunte Culpepper
   9.15   2007   JaMarcus Russell
   9.06   2004   Ben Roethlisberger
   9.04   2011   Andy Dalton
   9.03   2002   David Carr

• Comments [1]

Readers' Comments

Add a Comment

Already a registered user? Please sign in to add comments.

To add comments, you must become a registered user of our site. To register, please click here.