Ian Allan

Bill Belichick is generally regarded as the genius of the NFL draft. He’s not afraid to make trades, and he generally moves down, stockpiling picks for future years. It seems like the Patriots obtain future first-round picks from other teams every year.

But do all those extra choices in the second, third and fourth rounds really make a difference? And is Belichick really the master of finding diamonds in the rough?

When you actually get out the picks and look at them, it becomes far less apparent that Belichick is simply smarter than everybody else. In fact, I get the feeling he should be doing less trading. His success rate is much better in the first round (that he often trades out of).

The Patriots could have had Dez Bryant last year but passed; time will tell on that one, but I think Bryant (with the off-field baggage) could still be very good.

This year, the Patriots passed on Mark Ingram, who seems to have some Emmitt Smith in him. I’m not sure I trust Belichick highly as a running backs evaluator. I remember him going out on a limb and picking Laurence Maroney rather than the conventional pick of DeAngelo Williams. I think we can call that one a loss. And Andy Richardson pointed out to me earlier in the day that New England had a chance to select Clay Matthews a few years back but opted to trade down.

Trading down does carry a cost, and there are definitely some losses there for Belichick. And I don’t think his record of chosing players in the middle rounds stands out as being particularly noteworthy.

The two quarterbacks he’s selected in the third and fourth rounds in the last ten years, for example, have been Kevin O’Connell and Rohan Davey. Neither ever even developed into a backup. So it’s too early to say Ryan Mallett is going to lead this team to a bunch of Super Bowls.

Running backs Belichick has drafted in the first four rounds: Maroney, J.R. Redmond (second), Cedric Cobbs (fourth).

Wide receivers Belichick has drafted in the second, third and fourth rounds: Deion Branch, Bethel Johnson, Chad Jackson, Brandon Tate and Taylor Price. The smart move wasn’t a draft pick but convincing Randy Moss to play in New England and to actually show up and try and play at less than market value.

Belichick seems to have done his best work drafting defensive and particularly offensive linemen. He’s got a nice success rate there. But maybe it’s not who they’re drafting but how they’re developing them once they get them.

And a bigger of New England’s success, I think, can be attributed to Belichick’s work with veterans. He’s been able to convince some good players to come to New England, often at less than market value – Corey Dillon, Randy Moss, Rodney Harrison. And he’s had the foresight to get rid of some seemingly good players at the right time – Drew Bledsoe, Lawyer Milloy, Deion Branch, Richard Seymour, Adam Vinatieri and Moss. But king of the draft? I don’t see it.


NEW ENGLAND DRAFT PICKS UNDER BELICHICK

FIRST-ROUND PICKS (10 picks in 11 drafts)
   2001   DT   Richard Seymour
   2002   TE   Dan Graham
   2003   DT   Ty Warren
   2004   TE   Benjamin Watson
   2004   DT   Vince Wilfork
   2005   OG   Logan Mankins
   2006   RB   Laurence Maroney
   2007   FS   Brandon Meriweather
   2008   LB   Jerod Mayo
   2010   CB   Devin McCourty

SECOND-ROUND PICKS (15 picks in 11 drafts)
   2000   OT   Adrian Klemm
   2001   OT   Matt Light
   2002   WR   Deion Branch
   2003   DB   Eugene Wilson
   2003   WR   Bethel Johnson
   2004   DE   Marquise Hill
   2006   WR   Chad Jackson
   2008   CB   Terrence Wheatley
   2009   DT   Ron Brace
   2009   CB   Darius Butler
   2009   OL   Sebastian Vollmer
   2009   SS   Patrick Chung
   2010   TE   Rob Gronkowski
   2010   DE   Jermaine Cunningham
   2010   LB   Brandon Spikes

THIRD-ROUND PICKS (11 picks in 11 drafts)
   2000   RB   J.R. Redmond
   2001   DB   Brock Williams
   2004   DB   Guss Scott
   2005   DB   Ellis Hobbs
   2005   OG   Nick Kaczur
   2006   TE   Dave Thomas
   2008   LB   Shawn Crable
   2008   QB   Kevin O'Connell
   2009   WR   Brandon Tate
   2009   LB   Tyrone McKenzie
   2010   WR   Taylor Price

FOURTH-ROUND PICKS (16 picks in 11 drafts)
   2000   OT   Greg Robinson-Randall
   2001   TE   Jabari Holloway
   2001   OT   Kenyatta Jones
   2002   DE   Jarvis Green
   2002   QB   Rohan Davey
   2003   DB   Asante Samuel
   2003   DT   Dan Klecko
   2004   RB   Cedric Cobbs
   2004   DB   Dexter Reid
   2005   DB   James Sanders
   2006   PK   Stephen Gostkowski
   2006   TE   Garrett Mills
   2007   DT   Kareem Brown
   2008   CB   Jonathan Wilhite
   2009   OG   Rich Ohrnberger
   2010   TE   Aaron Hernandez


—Ian Allan

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