Success rates of rookie tackles
Posted Aug. 18 at 06:36 AM
Five teams selected offensive tackles in the second half of the first round, and three of those teams are looking for those picks to contribute immediately. Anthony Castonzo (Indianapolis), James Carpenter (Seattle) and Gabe Carimi (Chicago) should start right away.
But what kind of impact can these teams expect from these players? Even setting aside the issue of the lockout, when a team drafts a tackle with the 23rd pick of the draft, what is the probability that they’ll actually be significantly better at that position?
Below is the list of all offensive tackles in the last 20 years who were selected in the second half of the first round. There are some solid producers in there – Todd Steussie, Tarik Glenn, Luke Petitgout, Jeff Backus, Jeff Otah and Michael Oher come to mind. But not a lot of standout players, and the vast majority of the guys in hindsight weren’t really worth first-round picks.
We are all reminded constantly of the high miss rate among quarterbacks in the first round, but it really doesn’t appear to be any better for offensive tackles. It’s one thing to take one early in the first round, when perhaps you’re getting a Walter Jones or Jonathan Ogden. But the success rate drops significantly once those blue-chip type guys are off the board.
Chances are that of those five guys selected in the first round, at least three of them won’t really make a big impact.
Note: Dallas selected tackle Tyron Smith with the 9th pick, but here I’m focusing on the next tier of tackles – guys selected in the later part of the first round.
OFFENSIVE TACKLES SELECTED IN
SECOND HALF OF FIRST ROUND (1990-2011)
Year Name, School (NFL team) Pick
1991 Stan Thomas, Texas (Bears) 22
1992 John Fina, Arizona (Bills) 27
1993 Ernest Dye, South Carolina (Cardinals) 18
1994 Todd Steussie, California (Vikings) 19
1995 Korey Stringer, Ohio State (Vikings) 24
1995 Billy Milner, Houston (Dolphins) 25
1995 Blake Brockermeyer, Texas (Panthers) 29
1995 Trezelle Jenkins, Michigan (Chiefs) 31
1996 John Michels, Southern Cal (Packers) 27
1996 Jamain Stephens, North Carolina A&T (Steelers) 29
1996 Andre Johnson, Penn State (Redskins) 30
1997 Tarik Glenn, California (Colts) 19
1998 Mo Collins, Florida (Raiders) 23
1998 Victor Riley, Auburn (Chiefs) 27
1999 Matt Stinchcomb, Georgia (Raiders) 18
1999 Luke Petitgout, Notre Dame (Giants) 19
1999 L.J. Shelton, Eastern Michigan (Cardinals) 21
1999 Aaron Gibson, Wisconsin (Lions) 27
2000 Stockar McDougle, Oklahoma (Lions) 20
2000 Chris McIntosh, Wisconsin (Seahawks) 22
2001 Jeff Backus, Michigan (Lions) 18
2002 Marc Colombo, Boston College (Bears) 29
2003 George Foster, Georgia (Broncos) 20
2003 Kwame Harris, Stanford (49ers) 26
2005 Alex Barron, Florida State (Rams) 19
2007 Joe Staley, Central Michigan (49ers) 28
2008 Gosder Cherilus, Boston College (Lions) 17
2008 Jeff Otah, Pittsburgh (Panthers) 19
2008 Sam Baker, Southern Cal (Falcons) 21
2008 Duane Brown, Virginia Tech (Texans) 26
2009 Michael Oher, Mississippi (Ravens) 23
2010 Bryan Bulaga, Iowa (Packers) 23
2011 Nate Solder, Colorado (Patriots) 17
2011 Anthony Castonzo, Boston College (Colts) 22
2011 James Carpenter, Alabama (Seahawks) 25
2011 Gabe Carimi, Wisconsin (Bears) 29
2011 Derek Sherrod, Mississippi St. (Packers) 32
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